Real estate market falls asleep: to invest in housing - is futile

08.02.2014 00:00
Real Estate Market Analysis |  Real estate market falls asleep: to invest in housing - is futile The real estate market - a sort of mirror of the economy and attitudes of society. If everything is good and optimistic soul, this market is growing, and if the masses possessed anxiety and pessimism - he almost dies. Last year was a difficult one for all the Ukrainian real estate market, but for the "secondary " - especially . It is in this segment and the seller , and the buyer shall take decisions ordinary citizens who do not have a deep understanding of economic laws and market trends , but has its own problems , fears and doubts .

We decided to look at what happened in the past year on the secondary real estate market in Ukraine , find out what's going on there now and what is expected in the future. And to answer the question: does it make sense to invest in housing?

Related article: For a month the price of apartments in Kiev rose to $ 1845 per sq. m.

Market likes silence
Looking back over the past year , it seems that a number of events occurred in it not just so, and especially in order to check which can withstand the test of the real estate market . Indeed, in 2013, was introduced several innovations associated with the process of buying and registration of housing.

To warm up in January , a new system of registration of rights to real estate. As usual , the transition from old to new is not really organized , a system not previously debugged why at the beginning of the year the market for some time just became unresponsive .

Before he could catch his breath from the first experiment , as already standing on the threshold of a tax on real estate. With him also started various ambiguities , why he decided to move for the coming year .

Not to get bored . In September restrict the UAH 150 thousand in the calculations nalichkoj - everything is more expensive , it is necessary to buy-sell through the bank. Seems to be okay , but for people who are used with caution to treat all innovations , this was another reason to postpone the purchase of real estate . People have a natural concern : not whether they will get after making a large purchase "under the hood " tax service ? Explained experts that tax , and so if you want to easily get access to information on transactions encountered answer had something to tax still had to work hard , and now all the information will fall to him myself . In general, from September to December 2013 , the number of transactions in the secondary market fell by almost two times. And, importantly , significantly decreased the number of listings - people got sick , not only to buy but also to sell.

TOMORROW WAS A Maidan . Protest "helped" to bring down even more activity in the property market - first in the cities , where there are major protest events , then pulled up behind them and other regions. A real estate market , as you know, likes silence . There is still connected and the uncertainty with the future of the dollar. So , according to Kostetskii in January the number of transactions fell by 30 percent more compared to December .

what to expect

Judging by the " gay " beginning of 2014 , it is possible that the main influence on the real estate market will have political factors and power solutions , predict that today is quite difficult. However, even if the country is not a political crisis , the property market is unlikely to be stable. Among the potential threats specialists last year called a bill to impose a 15% tax on the sale of real estate. Like, if it will , the current state of the market will be sleepy nostalgically remembered as happy times of frenzied activity . But compared with the variety of scenarios that offers us now , all these fears seem ridiculous.

COURSE . Putting aside the political passions , much will depend on the extent to which the National Bank wants to or be able to keep the hryvnia . According to the analyst of the International Centre for Policy Studies, Alexander Acorn , certain risks associated with large payments on debt , which this year is to perform Ukraine . As relations with the European institutions are now not in the best condition, and it looks like may deteriorate further , it is possible that this year the government fails perezanyat money in the West. In this regard, the expert does not rule out the collapse of the hryvnia exchange rate , but does not think this scenario is basic.

If the exchange rate of the dollar against the hryvnia will go up , it can have several effects . First, the dollar prices could fall even down . Secondly, some Ukrainians who keep their savings in the national currency , can try to try to protect them from the depreciation of buying real estate .

PERSPECTIVE . It is clear that investing in housing with the idea of resale emergency utterly pointless . But what to say on the long-term prospects ? "Today, such a prediction is impossible to give , - the coordinator of the trading system REM Navigator Oleg Sikorski . - Because it depends on many factors, including the foreign policy orientation of the country. " But in general , said Sikorski , in a situation where people do not trust financial institutions , currencies or doubt the solvency of financial institutions , long-term real estate investments make sense - because it is something not to be impaired .

Capital identifies trends

Kiev , as has long been the custom, on the first in everything - including folding the secondary real estate market .

In the period from January 1, 2013 th to January 1, 2014 in the capital has been committed 16,154 purchase / sale of apartments on the secondary . This is considerably less than in 2012 - the year when it sold 19,259 apartments. But even sadder statistics by month: 2315 transactions in July and 818 in December.

Furthermore, if at the end of summer in the capital offered for sale 55 thousand apartments by the end of the year the number dropped to 30 thousand The prices have not changed much : last year the index value of secondary housing in Kyiv fell from $ 1554 to $ 1543 per m. m

NOW. January and early February - traditionally a time of stagnation in the housing market . Even in the best of times at the beginning of the year activity fell twice as compared to the average . It would seem that the market has now fully "down" . But it is not so . According to director of realty company "Golden Gate" Alexei Holmetsky activity is now slightly higher than one would expect . Transactions still occur , although they are fewer than in the same period last year. According Holmetsky is partly due to the instability and uncertainty in the hryvnia exchange rate , coupled with some decrease in confidence in financial institutions ( quite natural in a period of political instability ) . Some people today prefer to transfer savings from bank deposits in real estate.

regional subtleties

Regional real estate markets largely reflect the same processes that occur in the capital market . We have no favorable regions . - Everything is on the decline everywhere . However, some differences are still there.
EAST . At Kharkov secondary real estate market year was boring . As in most other regions , buyers focused on the introduction of limits on the amount of cash payments , so summer activity in the market has increased dramatically .

Thus, according to the company KHAN , demand increased by 20% , and in the last week of August was completed about 40 % of transactions in the month . And then slumped - the number of transactions in December turned out to be 30% lower than the year before . However , home prices in Kharkiv is not only not decreased , but even increased slightly . According to the company "Kansas" for the price index rose by 0.8%. According to statistics from the Kharkov Academy " Avers" , "square" in a studio apartment on the average price increased by 1.1% in a two - by 5.2 %, while two-bedroom - 7.9% .

But in Donetsk average square meter fell by 3.5%. Dynamics of the activity developed around the same scheme as in Kharkov.

Slightly increased in price ( 2% ) housing in Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhye fell by 5.7%.

SOUTH. It must be especially insulting to look at the second half of the year slump realtors and owners of real estate in the Crimea. In 2012, thence experts observed some signs of market stabilization . However, as mentioned in the review of the Trading System REM Navigator, « has already started in 2013 presaged the real estate market any good. Instead confident price growth spring season 2013th started with zero indicators and by May property prices decreased by 2 %. " In summer , however, again flashed a ray of hope : on hand Crimeans played various political and economic turmoil in Egypt, Tunisia and Cyprus - these countries are traditionally among the favorite holiday destinations and purchase of real estate Russians . As a result , says Oleg Sikorski , in early summer demand for property on the South Coast from the Russians has grown significantly , leading to a revival of the entire real estate market of the peninsula. Prices have gone up , but not for long - pronounced towards European integration has led to a cooling of relations with Russia , and after that - and to an outflow of Russian buyers. As a result, in 2013 the average prices for real estate in Crimea fell by 2%.

In Odessa, the average price per square meter , according to the company "Kansas" , slipped by 0.5%. In Nikolayev and Kherson it remained almost unchanged.

WEST AND CENTRE . According to the company "Kansas" , more or less noticeably grown "square" in Vinnitsa ( 5.2% ) , Cherkassy ( 6.7% ) , Kirovohrad ( 4.4% ) and in Ivano-Frankivsk ( 3 %). In other regional centers the price has remained almost the same or slightly decreased , with the exception of Lviv, where the decline was notable 6.1%.
Did you like the material?Subscribe to our newsletter
Your comments:
Your opinion will be the first. Thank you for reading this article. I wish you happiness! Please share your opinion in the comment below.