This material discusses the prospects of development of the global investment market in 2010-2012., Regional and sectoral preferences of foreign investors, fed forecast of investment activity in Ukraine.
World Investment Outlook for 2010-2012.
According to UNCTAD estimates, global flows of foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2010 will increase somewhat compared to the year 2009 and exceed 1.2 trillion. dollars, and then grow to 1,3-1,5 trillion. dollars in 2011. Return to pre-crisis levels is expected only in 2012, with the spread of expert estimates range from 1.6 to 2 trillion. dollars.
Because of emerging risks, limited public investments, uncertainty about the regulatory reforms of the financial sphere, and limited access to private sector credit, volatility in the stock and currency markets and other factors, global financial and economic recovery remains very fragile.
At the same time, the general trend of global economic recovery in the 1 half of 2010, as well as positive forecasts of world economic institutions in 2010-2012. indicate an approaching period of growth in world market for direct foreign investment.
After the global economy-wide recession, which was observed during 2008-2009. In 2010 is projected global growth at 4.8%. Until the end of 2010 as interest rates and prices of basic commodities are likely to remain at a moderate level that allows you to control production costs and make additional investments.
Beginning in 2009, and based on 1 half of 2010, most of the world's largest corporations are beginning to demonstrate the restoration of profitability. Along with the improved performance of stock markets it would create a framework for financing of FDI in the future.
Economic and financial crisis has adversely affected the investment plans of transnational corporations in 2008-2009. However, according to research by UNCTAD "World Investment Prospects Survey 2010 - 2012," according to a slight recovery of optimism: in 2009 the proportion of respondents who expressed pessimism about investment plans in 2010 was 47%, while in 2010 their part decreased to 36%. Regarding long-term investment plans, the increase falls on the optimistic expectations in 2011: in 2010 about the likelihood of growth of investment has stated 13% of respondents in 2011 - 47% in 2012 - 62%.
In the coming years can expect to gain positions of investors from developing countries and countries with transitive economy. Among the 20 major countries of players in the investment market, about half belong to countries with developing economies, including: China (takes 2 position among global investors), India (6 position), RF (12 position). It should also be noted that TNCs from developing countries are more optimistic in comparison to companies from developed countries. This suggests that the volume of foreign investments will be the first to recover more quickly.
At the same time, the most attractive countries for investment are the BRIC countries (China, India, Brazil and Russia) and the U.S..
Restoration of FDI flows, in all probability, will occur primarily through the intensification of cross-border mergers and acquisitions. Opportunities for M & A market will be open to companies through the restructuring of industries and privatization of companies nationalized during the global economic crisis.
Compared to the mining sector, agriculture and service sector share of manufacturing sector in the structure of FDI flows will continue to decline.
Most of the industries most sensitive to business cycles (automotive, chemical industry, metallurgy) will likely feel a significant lack of investment in the side of strategic investors. At the same time we should expect the favor of investors in industries with lower recurrence and those who are experiencing a phase of dynamic growth (telecommunications, business services, pharmaceuticals, food industry and service sector as a whole). With regard to the primary sector in the short term, due to falling prices is forecast sharply limiting investment, at the same time in the medium term these sectors will be opened promising prospects.
In connection with the progression of the global food crisis should anticipate increased investor interest to the agricultural business. In the list of global economic risks (World Economic Forum 2009) volantilnosti threat of food prices over the coming years will increase, and damage the global economy to seek around $ 1 trillion. dollars. USA.
Forecast of development of investment activity in Ukraine
Until 2009 the inflow of foreign capital in Ukraine's economy had a positive trend. Over the past 5 years the average annual growth rate of foreign capital accounted for approximately 25%. However, the high degree of corruption, opacity, complexity and unpredictability of the tax, an unfriendly business and investment climate significantly reduced interest in Ukraine by foreign investors, satisfying the necessary demand for investment resources is less than 50%.
In turn, the global financial crisis to the investment market in Ukraine has become an additional factor in the loss. In 2009, the investment market in Ukraine was characterized by a sharp fall, which is based on the outflow of foreign investment portfolio investors, as well as credit.
In 2010, the continuing fall in foreign investment in Ukrainian economy. During the 1 st half of 2010 in the Ukrainian economy has been invested 496 million dollars. U.S., accounting for only 21% of the same period of 2009, with most of the investments was sent from Russia, Cyprus and Kazakhstan, foreign investors continue to cool the possibilities of investing in Ukraine, until the outward investment and exit from the Ukrainian market. Such an example was followed by insurance companies Ageas Group (Fortis Group), ING, Generali-PPF. Also aware of other companies that have already pokinudi or are considering withdrawal from its projects in Ukraine: Germanos, "IARC", O `Kane, IKEA, Renaissance Partners Investment Limited, Action S.A., Heliopark Group, Energopol-Poludnie, Stroer , Wester, Paterson, PIC, Astromed and others.
Sectoral analysis of FDI inflows into Ukraine's economy in 1 half of 2010 shows the growth of investments in the following industries: metallurgy, construction, trade, financial activities, while at the same time, net outflows were recorded in the following sectors: agriculture, food processing, chemical industry, machine building, hotels and restaurants.
In all probability 2010 will be the worst in recent years for Ukraine on indicators of investment activity. However, beginning in 2011, one can predict the dynamic recovery of the investment market in Ukraine. This will facilitate the removal of political tensions in Ukraine, ending a period of electoral processes, the stabilization of the macroeconomic situation and the proactive power to promote a positive image of Ukraine. At the same time, the risk for investors may be innovations in the field of fiscal policy, macroeconomic risks associated with an increase in internal and external borrowing, strengthening the pro-Russian vector of cooperation can inhibit the activity of foreign investors in Ukraine.
Oleynikov Alex (Ph.D., director of strategic development of the investment group INEC)