Despite obvious signs of crisis, such as sales decline and a lack of funds for the completion or development projects, suburban real estate market is preparing to revive.
According to experts, hoped for a gradual "thawing" of the market prompts developers like the approach of spring - a tradition that during this period people are actively acquiring land or country houses, and initiated by the same developers of falling prices for houses, says investment funds.
"Developers who have already begun to build facilities, reduce the cost of houses. This is a necessary measure, especially because the prices of many objects were significantly inflated. Under the circumstances, and in the future, builders will lay in projects far less profitability than previously" - supposes Natalia Dolgov, director of marketing at Aurora Development. "
Solidarity with a colleague and Vladimir Stepenko, director of marketing for "ST Development". According to him, in the new season, developers will be willing to sell the cottages with a yield of not more than 20%.
"For example, if the average construction cost of 1 square. M cottage now stands at $ 500 plus the cost of land and Communications, the developers will be willing to sell it for $ 1 thousand plus a minimum return, ie, an average of $ 1.2 thousand per 1 sq. m "- explains Mr. Stepenko.
At the same time Anna Skripkina, Director of Real Estate Management LLC Tico Construction ", notes that" the current crisis has struck is not the whole cottage construction - depending on the construction and implementation phase settlements respond to the situation differently. "
In particular, cottage villages, construction of which was to begin in 2008-2009. Have suffered, according to Ms. violin, more than villages, construction of which was launched earlier: "Most of those objects fell, where the construction resides in the initial stage - some players due to acute kreditozavisimosti banks to reduce the price of a "square" to the level of cost.
Close to completion as developers try to finish the house and all the forces to keep prices from falling tangible. "
Indirectly confirms the words of Ms. violin Natalia Semchenok, CEO of the group of companies Mayetok "(Kiev, construction, engineering, real estate, since 2005, 436 people.):" Despite the fluctuations in the price index for real estate, we no plans to reduce the cost of houses. On the contrary - the company's management is confident that by the time the complete readiness of the town houses will only go up. The prices in the segment of country building may be reduced, but not for liquid objects. According to her, in the spring the company plans to sell about 10% of the total number of households first cottage "Mayetok. Italiї Pearl, as well as about 20% of the town" Mayetok. Gretsiї Diamant. " To sell 200 houses (in 2008 it was sold 222 cottages) in the cottage "Olympic Park" (as planned) is going in 2009 and development company "Europe" (Kiev, integrated development of large suburban areas: building cottage communities, satellite cities, from 2007; 71 people.).
At the same time Sergey Eliseev, CEO, explains: "Since we initially had been very loyal to the consumer price, the price of homeownership, we are not reduced. We consider only the possibility of reducing them to houses that were built by a year ago at their own expense."
In this case, Mr. Elisha said that no special marketing campaigns aimed at increasing sales, implementing the company will not be.
"The main marketing pitch in today's terms - this is a good demonstration of the dynamics of construction. This year we plan to finish building all of the objects sold previously, ie, more than 300 houses. Now they are at different stages of readiness," - says the developer.
Principles of Marketing
According to experts, companies that can afford not to force things, albeit more slowly (because the market still does not absorb significant amounts of right now), but did continue to build and sell objects (according to the "ST Development", the construction and sales are conducted in cottage townships Grand Villas, "Olympic Park", "Severynivka", "Michael's Garden", "Sun City", "Zoloche Club", "Zoloche-2", Montana Village, "Mayetok. Gretsiї Diamant", "Mayetok. Perlin Italiї "," Zaspa Golf "and" Gold Zatoka).
Especially now, as experts explained, you can get good discounts on the cost of works as well as construction materials. In addition, developers can bring to the project qualified individuals who previously refused orders because of high load.
Many companies are reconsidering the concept of townships in an attempt to correct the mistakes conceptology at the stage when the market is in deficit absorbed any suggestions.
At the same time, advertising budgets are in crisis developers villa communities are cutting. Experts argue that the new season will be no actual direct advertising, and develop and implement incentive programs for buyers, their partial credit, the provision of houses for lease-purchase, deferred payment, etc.
However, all this can only afford to, companies that own or borrowed funds. "Insolvency developers, of course, is unlikely to survive. Most likely, they will be forced to sell their projects to foreign investors for possible further development and for a complete change in the functional purpose, a concept completely different use of land" - predicts Ms. Dolgov .
It is also possible that some projects simply will be frozen until better times, as it has done some developers. True, to assess exactly how many projects cottage settlements frozen or stopped completely, experts, alas, can not.
"This market segment has always been a fairly closed and under the circumstances, the situation has worsened: the suspension or termination of operations on objects are not widely is announced - it's a blow not only on the current image of the project, but also the image of the company and facility in the future", - says Natalya Dolgov.
Concerning the timing of the resumption of construction, Maxim Belous, director of strategic development and marketing company "XXI Century" (Kiev, real estate development, property management, from 1999), believes that they will depend on the depth and duration of the crisis.
"Many construction projects are frozen, but a strong demand for housing remained. Therefore, once the market starts to revive, the demand will rise as the apartments and in the suburban housing" - predicts a specialist.
Regarding the launch in 2009, new projects cottage towns market participants' opinions were divided. Maxim Belous, for example, finds that new projects are unlikely to be launched. " But Natalia Dolgova convinced that if a company has a well thought out concept and tools for the development of the project, now - the most advantageous for the design and commencement of construction (low cost of implementation of works and materials. - Ed.) Time.
"Project, to start at the stage of stagnation or origin of demand will come on the market at the time of his recovery and growth, and that they have all the pent-up demand", - the expert believes. Furthermore, as correctly noted Sergey Eliseev, now significantly reduced the wholesale price of land (without utilities), that if you have money in the developer can contribute to the development of new projects.
The more basic work that will take up to six years, during which, according to experts, the situation in the real estate market is likely to stabilize.
Artem Novikov (29), managing partner of the Dialogue-Classic "(Kiev, investment advice, since 2003, and 10 people.):
- Methods to promote projects of cottage townships, as well as the sale of houses to be diversified (including performance indicators) to attract the maximum number of buyers. It can be considered a parallel job developer's sales and real estate agencies.
In promotion of the most significant role to play instruments and foster the positive reputation of the builder, as the reliability and financial stability of some guarantee that the project will be successfully completed.
Thus, the implementation of PR-activities should become a key aspect of promotion. These include the regular publication of comments of the first persons of the company-developer of specialized media, participation in exhibitions and conferences, support website with a demonstration of the construction work on the project.
Natalia Dolgov, director of marketing at Aurora Development "(Kiev, real estate development, consulting and brokerage of real estate, since 2006, and 25 people.):
- The main trend in the market of cottage building now is to reformat it from the market seller in a buyer's market. And, as a consequence - Focus on demand sites that fully meet the requirements of consumer demand.
Positive feature of Ukrainian market of suburban housing is great potential demand for residential property.
With worsening financial capabilities of consumers this demand does not disappear, it goes into a bit delayed. Moreover, due to suspension or termination of operations on many objects in the rise of the market imbalance of supply and demand will only increase.
Anna Skripkina, Director of Real Estate Management LLC Tico Construction "(Kiev, development of commercial real estate since 1998, 150 people.):
- With sufficient equity is now very opportune time to enter the market of companies specializing in country real estate.
Because the value of land has decreased by 2 times, construction costs (in dollars) - by 30-40%. At the same time since the acquisition of the land before entering the area average, it takes 12-16 months, and by this time, we believe the economy "will come to life."
True, change the ratio of own and borrowed capital. In particular, if earlier, the figure was 40 to 60, respectively, in the next few years, shareholders' equity will increase, as buyers will be afraid to buy unfinished projects. Just be yourself and keep the banks when issuing loans.