What to expect from the effects of the crisis?

19.08.2008 00:00
The construction industry is sinking deeper into the abyss of the most serious crises in the history of independent Ukraine. According to Goskomstat, in the first half of the market recorded decline in the preparation of building blocks and virtually all construction works, and buildings - to a critical level - almost 20%. Such a depressing state of affairs, in the unanimous opinion of experts, is due to two global factors. The first is the significant rise in prices for fuel and lubricants, energy and basic building materials. In the Ministry of Economy believes that this has increased the cost of construction and the exhaustion of the estimated limit set by the approved project documentation. The second reasons for the crisis is certainly a sharp decline in mortgage loans issued as a result of tight monetary policy of the government. Statistics show - from the beginning, the number of sold apartments in new buildings was reduced by 20%, and to date, sales and does virtually stopped. Fell even further, "secondary housing - the number of operations in this segment in the first half decreased by half compared to the same period in 2007.

Analysts warn: Many construction companies will not withstand such pressure, caused by

of a catastrophic decline in demand for "square meters", and would be forced to leave the market, minimize the operation or even a change of ownership. To date, nearly 30 facilities in Kiev alone there are unfinished - including new buildings, "Poznyakizhilstroy," "Granite", "Kyivmiskbud. What happens next?

Declining interest in "health" of an industry or a particular market usually estimated largely on the degree of its attractiveness to foreign investors. In the case of the construction business, things sadly. As noted in the company Colliers International, the consequences of the credit crunch and the revaluation of the currency have become the dominant subject of discussion in investment circles. Having concerns about the development of Ukrainian real estate market, many international players took a break to assess the situation, and some have used this period to complete current transactions. This is significant because for foreign players Ukrainian market is very attractive. Its dynamic development in the past, high profitability, the level of rents - the main factors manivshie until recently in our expanse of foreigners.

Meanwhile, new companies that have recently entered the Ukrainian market, not so much. They concluded investment transactions in the segments of retail and warehouse space. Among them, the European private equity fund Mayer Bergman, who has acquired a retail and entertainment center of "Aladdin", located in the left-bank part of Kiev. The Austrian company Akron Group acquired the shares in the company's share capital GLD Holding Cyprus Ltd and SZL Financing Ltd, engaged in financing the construction of a logistics park East Gate Logistic in Boryspil.

The total volume of completed transactions this year decreased by 1,5 times. Such a situation can be attributed to the uncertainty effects of the credit crisis that has forced many investors to postpone the planned acquisition. A similar trend is seen in the stock market, where issuers from the real estate industry is not popular. According to Lev Partskhaladze, chairman of the board of directors of the company "XXI Century", in the real estate sector all the companies traded on average 50% of its market value. "It used to be the opposite. For example, the company" XXI Century "a year ago was trading with 70% premium, and now - with with 50% discount. There are companies that have and 80% discount", - said the expert.

"Convulsions" of public companies Initial Public Offering developers, planned for early 2008, were postponed. Already, many companies are forced to sell noncore assets and to abandon those areas that have recently been profitable. For example, the company "XXI Century" signed a letter of intent regarding the sale of its logistics projects. Board of Directors of the company approved the sale of these assets at a price close to their net asset value. The company intends to focus on the development of major projects and improving their liquidity. For the "XXI Century" is a necessary step, which clearly demonstrates that the systemic crisis in the industry against the background of the unfavorable macro-and globalnoekonomicheskoy situation does not spare even the most advanced companies, the last "purgatory" IPO. Moreover, such a situation to prevail in a private company, which by definition must operate Superefficient.

What is already talking about the state or municipal structures, controlled by old-fashioned, behind which, as a rule, are the various ministries and departments, fiercely resisting any attempts to change their ownership structure and management. And at the slightest hint at the beginning of reforms, using all instruments: from the public "demonstrations of" to outright military pressure.

Agony antiques Trouble "public" builders - even flowers compared with the suffering "post-Soviet." No less and even more painfully affected the current market situation and one of the largest holdings of the capital - Kyivmiskbud, 80% of which are still in the communal property. According to the story of market experts, the case for holding situation is not the best way is not the first year.

Unfortunately, once the work fine company, like many others like it state-owned enterprises have not been able to become truly competitive. Today the situation has worsened in the company by the fact that with the adoption of the budget this year, land should be sold only at auction, that is Kyivmiskbud lost its last advantage - to get the land on concessional basis, using the urban status. And now, as most construction companies, Kyivmiskbud clearly suffers from a lack of resources, and it can hardly afford to fight for living space under the laws of the market.

Experts believe that the assets of Kievgorstroy "really" bloated ". In fact, most of them actually belongs to the so-called "associate members" in the capital of which Kyivmiskbud not involved. As for the assets freed of "fiddling" of the holding, the majority of them virtual and is represented dormitories. I mean, social infrastructure, which should contain, and the prescription in which the tenants meter by meter privatize their living space. Everything else Kyivmiskbud now must work in a market: for example, to receive land on the common grounds, which was very unpleasant surprise for the company. In addition, the company with its precarious financial situation and limited opportunities, as well as other Kiev builders are not encouraging, and social initiatives commands the capital's mayor, which is solving the problem of reducing the rent queue for two years a policy of increasing the number of "square meters", passed town developers waiting for, and enhance equity contributions to the development of infrastructure. As a result, states Valentin Isak, president of "Capital", "today Kyivmiskbud - ordinary developer, also burdened with huge liabilities to investors. When the press began to exaggerated rumors that early next year could be held trying to sell this company, I was not surprised. " According to experts, to "save" Kyivmiskbud can only be a major transformation. But the asset of this quality is very hard to find a buyer, simply create a new company with the original quality control system built up. "

Joy beskvartirnyh sad all in the current real estate market situation, the potential buyer that same living space, which may be permanently frozen in a conserved sites developers. Information about the crisis in the building is perceived as a joyful harbinger of the future of cheaper real estate. In this case, few people think about what someone else's crisis does not happen. And that minimize the volume of construction hurts not only for builders and allied himself with the construction industry sector (including construction materials and their ilk), but throughout the economy, and hence of its population. The more developers are not going to reduce prices and will stay until the end. And most likely freeze objects than will be spent on cheaper real estate.

So while building the crisis did not come to his throat, "Ukrainian economic miracle", you need to take action - the owners of construction and real estate companies, top management, the state finally. From micro-level in the current situation requires managerial skills. And from the bodies of state power - the vision of anti-crisis managers capable of taking including unpopular decisions for the common good.

Nikolai Tolmachev, vice president of the Ukrainian Construction Association, vice-president of the Construction Chamber of Ukraine

In the market there is a tendency of stagnation. Mortgage lending was reconstructed, and people do not have time to regroup, and it affected the volume of construction work. There are instances when the company stopped its work. Private capital is more designed for efficiency. The private owner is always fighting for a pretty penny, but when it was communal, it is not his own.

Ivan Saliy, ex-mayor of Kiev

There is a definite glut, but cheaper housing will not be. The most important thing is that developers have not stopped building.

Edward Molodentsov, chief architect Ukrmonolitspetsstroy "

Stop building is now largely takes place not because of problems developers, and because of funding problems at the customers. They either do not count their money, or an incorrectly build process.

Alexander Kuzhel, Adviser to the Minister

The crisis in the building is directly linked to the crisis in the economy. The state has always been the worst owner. Need for banks to reconsider the system of financing the construction. https://vid.org.ua
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