Ukraine is better prepared to repeat the global crisis than two years ago
Possible worsening global economic situation will affect the Ukraine, but the country will suffer much less from him than two years ago, because today is much better prepared for such crises, says the chairman of the panel of advisers head of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) Valery Litvitskiy.
"We should not build illusions, as in 2008, that will save us the decoupling (the theory of the small dependence of developing countries from developed countries). To avoid the negative impact we can not, but today we are equipped with additional five-trees protection "- he said.
B. Litvitskiy noted that, firstly, started right, albeit unpopular budgetary measures: reduced its deficit, optimized costs.
Secondly, he pointed to the existence of a working program of cooperation with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). "Today we have the funding from the IMF, while in 2008 one of the reasons for the sharp reaction of the foreign exchange market was the uncertainty of working with the Foundation", - explained the advisor to the NBU. He added that the availability of IMF financing program now allows Ukraine to equalize the balance of payments deteriorated in mid-summer.
The third "shaft defense against a possible crisis, V. Litvitskiy called the normalization of trade and economic relations with Russia. "For example, today we are more or less clear perspective of the fourth quarter," - he explained the importance of this factor.
B. Litvitskiy also noted the importance of enhancing the sustainability of the Ukrainian economy and financial system, normalizing the situation around the National Bank. He recalled that the statements of the Government against the NBU in 2008 gave rise to very dangerous expectations of market players. "Therefore, it is the correct steps were to take this summer law, which normalized the situation around the NBU. And today no one pokes, not exerting pressure on the National Bank ", - emphasized.
Fifthly, he drew attention to the government`s decision to abandon a complete ban on grain exports. "It is very important, which means that the government learns from the past. Such economically correct decisions soothe markets ", - said V. Litvitskiy.
Head of group of advisers NBU Head also noted that the results of June and July give grounds to say that Ukraine has managed to avoid a serious slowdown of economic recovery.
"The decline in agriculture and transport was blocked by the improvement of trade and a sharp slowdown slowdown in construction, while industry slowdown has been small. This means that the budget goal - economic growth at 3.7% in 2010 - remains within reach, "- said the expert.
He estimated that the slowdown in the economy since the beginning of this year, up 5.6% from 6.3% after the first quarter, much lower than last year (from 20,3% to 17,8%), and therefore explain only the effect of low growth base in 2009 would be wrong.
He highlighted the significant improvement in the construction, which indicates the growth of investment and the recovery of domestic demand and reduce inflationary pressure. B. Litvitskiy stressed that began investment recovery recorded in the second quarter and the State Statistics Committee, according to which investment in fixed capital up to six months decreased by 7.4%, whereas in the first quarter decline reached 18.3%.
According to him, after a unique four-deflation in the country remain good prospects and in terms of inflation. "We have the best chance to have inflation is lower than in 2009, and still have the unique chance of inflation, particularly core", - said V. Litvitskiy.
He added that the results of the collection of grain refuted worst-case projections, which gives rise to price stability over the food segment of the consumer basket, which compensates for the long-needed changes in tariffs.
The expert also noted that the exchange rate of hryvnia has remained stable with a certain predilection for the small capacity, because the balance of payments does not give grounds for a large building.
"I am optimistic about the situation: while the scenario is developing in the expected direction", - said V. Litvitskiy.
He stressed that a significant contribution to the revival of economic activity and growth in domestic consumption has also made the National Bank, recently made the decision to lower base interest rates.