The world will go around the world: the prediction of the oracle





02.12.2010 03:24
Professor at New York University`s Nouriel Roubini, unlike many other economists and analysts often make extremely pessimistic forecasts about the global economy and recovery in the U.S.. On the eve of a conference in Cape Town, the economist who predicted the crisis, said its forecasts for developed and developing countries.

Developed countries in the short term is nothing good, according to Nouriel Roubini, is not waiting. They may be faced with economic slowdown that threatens to go into a second recession, and the actions of governments and central banks to support the economy will not yet have the desired effect, although they spend more money.

"Economic recovery will be U-shaped form - said Roubini, the news agency Bloomberg. - Next year we will see the painful process of deleveraging in both the private and public sectors, lower power consumption, reducing costs, reducing the budget deficit, increase savings and reduce debt. This means that economic recovery will be very weak. "

In addition, Rubin said that there remains a danger of re-recession in the U.S.. This threat could prompt central banks of developed countries to take measures to stimulate the economy and even more to soften its monetary policy. These measures can prevent the onset of re-recession, but they are to accelerate economic growth, according to Roubini, is not capable of.

Such statements are particularly interesting against the background of what is currently attending a two-day meeting of Federal Open Market Committee Federal Reserve System. As already wrote "Expert Online», at this meeting officials may adopt a new stimulus package, a decision which will be known today. The volume of funds allocated incentive can go, according to various estimates of market players, up to 1-2 trillion dollars.

But while analysts believe that market expectations can not be justified and a package of measures will be far more modest. Also, many experts doubt the effectiveness of these measures on the real economy. "The effect on the real U.S. economy on cash injections will be mediated. It is rather a step in the direction of the dollar`s decline ", - commented on a possible solution to the monetary authorities Head of shares of IFD Kapital" Konstantin Gulyaev.

Sam Rubin in its collaboration with company analysts, Roubini Global Economics article, "What will the Fed?" Published in U.S. magazine Forbes, is also exploring the possible scenarios. He concludes that the effect of the new package of measures to stimulate the economy will be very limited, and economic growth will remain weak.

The main source of problems for the U.S. economy are still real estate prices, which hamper economic growth and reduce the effectiveness of measures to stimulate growth.

"If housing prices fall another 5-10%, an additional 8 million households will be in debt - said Roubini, according to The Financial Post. - We will have another unpleasant crisis. " Decline in property prices along with high unemployment rates make consumers spend less money, which could lead to further crisis.

No better than it looks, according to Roubini, and in other countries. Macroeconomic and demographic situation in Japan, for example, will also continue to the crisis. "There has been structural economic reform that was needed after 15 years, almost depressed, and politically the country is close to a standstill - so Economist described the situation. - Japan is now a time bomb. "

The European Union is waiting for, according to Roubini, reduced competitiveness. Mainly to blame for the debt problems of Portugal, Greece, Spain and Ireland. And in an interview with Capital Roubini said that the issue is not whether to be seen whether Greece bankrupt, and when it will be them.

Such a pessimistic statement Roubini in more or less coincide with the real situation. Growth rate of the U.S. economy remain quite low, but now they are still a little bit faster. In the third quarter of 2010, the rate of increase of GDP up 2% in the second - 1,7%. In Japan the situation is more negative - in the second quarter economic growth fell from 5 to 1.5%.

The situation in emerging markets, according to Roubini, is now much more positive. He especially singled out China, most countries in Asia and Latin America, as well as some Middle East countries. But despite the positive assessment of economic development in these countries, Rubin noted that the price of assets in them are growing rapidly and may form a new "bubble". While the process of investing in developing countries is almost impossible to keep.

This trend is revealed and the International Monetary Fund recommended that developing countries curb the inflow of so-called "hot money" - large amounts of large speculative capital. "Expert Online»`ve written about the growth of an IPO on the Asian stock markets and the increasing popularity of exchanges themselves.

Nouriel Roubini has not mentioned in his speech, the prospects of the Russian economy. But the company Roubini Global Economics released in September, the forecast for Russia, which is generally positive due to an increase in energy demand from Asian countries. However, growth is very moderate.

Also yesterday lowered its forecast for economic growth in Russia and the World Bank. According to bank representatives, oil prices in 2011-2012 will be 10-20% lower than budgeted for the Russian Federation. A new forecast, Russia`s economy in 2010 will rise not by 4,5 and by 4,2% and in 2011 - by 4.5 instead of 4.8%.

World Bank experts, in contrast to Nouriel Roubini, while re-recession in the global economy is not expected.

Author: Olga Shamina, "Expert Online»
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