The real estate market in a shallow defrosting

12.10.2010 08:00
Articles about real estate | The real estate market in a shallow defrosting In St. Petersburg, the more citizens have money on deposit, the less goes to developers. And the less willing they are piling on the mortgage.

Still, St. Petersburg is very conservative. And careful - Elena Zemlyantseva sighs, head of department on work with companies of Northwest Bank SberbankaRF. - Why do not the mortgage is restored as quickly as we would like. But the share of overdue loans are lower than in Moscow and even than the average for Russia ".

In the spring of banks issued for 600-700 mln. per month, with the launch of the action "in the top ten!" (10% - the rate of 10% - down payment and 10 years - term loan) in late July, was released on a monthly billion. Mortgage reanimated, bankers more willing to lend to builders, only the Savings Bank in St. Petersburg in the first half of approved applications for 7.5 billion rubles., Before - another 8 billion rubles.

The market gradually defrosting. For how long? During the spring burst of activity followed by a recession, if not, then at least the "plateau phase".

Strategic zigzag
Federal Mortgage Agency (HMLA) in the summer has raised the forecast for 2010 in the HMLA believe that in 2010 banks will issue 320-360 billion rubles. credits. The previous forecast made earlier this year - 280-320 billion rubles.

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin at a meeting on housing, which was held in Moscow immediately after the fires, said that now a mortgage (taking into account the mother's capital, benefits, etc..) Can take 17% of Russians. And four years later this figure should be 25%.

However, in parallel HMLA experts conducted a study, interviewing people in 150 settlements of Russia. They turned out slightly different picture: about 13% of Russians are a little hoard of housing and expect to improve their living conditions within five years. But only a third of them (hence, about 4%) are willing to resort to mortgage lending. And in the coming year to resolve their housing problems will be only 2%. Even if the referents premier not mess with the numbers and 17% of the families can really get a mortgage, it does not mean that they actually will do it.

In the same study HMLA there are other interesting information. Since late last year when a survey was conducted for the first time, has consistently reduced the number of people dissatisfied with their housing. In late 2009, 38% of respondents said they have no need to buy housing in the I quarter of 2010 - already 52%, in II quarter - 61%. This does not mean that such high-spirited pace citizens solve their problems. Sociologists believe: after the crisis people are more sober and balanced assess their capabilities. And the correct requirements.

Auzan Alexander, a professor at Moscow State University, chairman of the Institute of National Project "Social Contract", said that planning horizon of 10 years has no more than 2% of Russians. This figure almost coincides with the share of active participants in the residential real estate market. In St. Petersburg, marketers are talking about 3-4% of households as potential customers, possibly in Moscow this figure is somewhat higher. According to analysts, the bank Unicredit, less than 2% of employed Russians can buy their first apartment with a mortgage.

In Russia, the accumulated financial airbag. According to a survey HMLA, 39% of Russians are delaying funds for a rainy day.

Under the forecast of the Deposit Insurance Agency (DIA), an increase of citizens' deposits in Russian banks in 2010 will be 1,9-2,2 trillion rubles. (Plus 25,5-29,5%). At the end of the year on deposits of individuals will 9,35-9,65 trillion rubles. (In 2008, an increase of 14,7% in 2009 - 26,8%). Growth rates in the accounts does not affect even lower rates (6-8%). Analysts believe that at the end of the year real rates on deposits of the population (adjusted for inflation) may become negative.

One of the main reasons other than uncertainty about the future well-being - lack of alternative financial instruments: no stock, no shares of investment funds have more confidence in the population do not cause. Earlier in the number of such tools include real estate, and that - remember? - Always in price. Crafty author of an advertising slogan did not specify what price.

Potential home buyers have become more cautious and circumspect. Perhaps, in St. Petersburg is more pronounced.

Many of the new
Currently St.Pete market there about 2.8 million square meters. m of housing in new buildings. In the I quarter of 2010, builders started 196,800 square meters. m of new projects, in II - 449,200 square meters. m. Implementation: I quarter - 430 000 sq. km. m, II - 488,000 square meters. m. This is a record amount since the beginning of the crisis. Total for the first half of buyers have purchased 920,000 square meters. meters of new housing.

New projects have virtually all the major developers. At the same time, most construction companies have a credit load, and the planned sales volume they needed primarily to serve the combined loans. Builders can not hold the goods and create an artificial shortage for inflation of prices.

And when you start new projects or are forced to position them as "slightly below market, or find unconventional moves to justify the price. The company "Al-Cu-Cu Property" ("daughter" of the Scandinavian group NCC) in the project "Swedish Krona" is energy efficiency and green building. The "Setl groups" - creating a comfortable, equipped exhibit environment. RBI Holding begins to use the scheme of trade-in: set-off available to the client's apartment, which the company promises to sell it for 90 days. But "in the segment of economy-the main criterion of choice was and remains the price," says director of marketing, "group leader" Vitaly Vinogradov.

According to commercial director Catherine GDSK Nemchenko in early spring, the company concluded a 7.6 trades per day, now - 9-10. In July, a 23% increased sales of new construction company LEK (they sell "NDV St. Petersburg) in August, despite a seasonal lull, the activity of buyers has decreased. On September 1, LEK routinely raise prices. But analysts estimate the move more as a demonstration. To change the trend and start the game to increase until sufficient grounds. The risk that the buyer changes his mind and gone, remains high. A limited amount of demand - the main regulator of the retention price.

But the further reduction of prices can hardly be expected. Construction costs are not decreasing, the prices of building plots is high. Director of investment development of YIT Lentek Alex Dalmatov notes that well-packed plots - finished with town planning documents, clear prospects for engineering and social infrastructure - is still small. And the land component in the price per square meter considerable: from $ 150 to $ 300.

In addition, Expensive materials, labor workers. Ahead of inflation, rising prices of monopolists. Of the positive effects can be noted except that depreciation of money. Sergei Evdokimov, managing director of investment lending North-Western Bank of Sberbank of Russia, said:

"We have reduced the bank's loan portfolio - the company-credit borrowers are quenched faster than the bank has time to issue new ones. However, since the beginning of the year the bank has already approved the application of construction companies in 7.5 billion rubles. Rates for corporate borrowers, working in the housing segment declined from 18-19% (at the beginning of the year) to 12-13%. " By the way, the level of arrears building industry looks better than others.

Support below
Since the inertia of the market is well known realtors. If the mainstream to a smooth decrease in the cost of housing, for the forced sale when the owner bound by certain terms (as the builder - loan), must fall below the market. Urgent sale form a new level of supply. Even the growth of consumer activity at the level of prices until a noticeable effect has not.

By the way, and in the secondary market in St. Petersburg in the II quarter was recorded substantial - more than 50% - increase in the number of transactions. In Moscow, according to official figures, an increase of 34%. In Russia as a whole, according to Rosreestra, for the first half marked increase in the number of housing transactions - up to 33%.

According to Executive Director of Yurinfo-estate Nikolai Lavrov, that's what happened: "In March - April in anticipation of growth in property prices potential buyers have rushed to make pledges for the selected accommodation. A purchase and sale just fell in May - June. But significant rise in prices has not occurred, and the demand has fallen to the January figure. In III quarter Lavrov expects to reduce the number of transactions.

Analysts believe that at least until the end of the year the housing market will develop smoothly without abrupt jumps and deviations. For journalists in such a reasonable picture of joy is not enough: what to write about, exactly? But for the conservative and cautious buyers in St. Petersburg - at the time.
Content tags: Overseas property Property
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