The property market is unlikely to be able to repeat their pre-crisis achieve

31.07.2011 00:45
Articles about real estate | The property market is unlikely to be able to repeat their pre-crisis achieve Finam.ru Information Group conducted an online conference on "The Real Estate Market: listless pursuit of the past records." The participants noted a normalization of the situation on the market, but are confident that prices would not reach pre-crisis levels, as well as their growth will not be as frightening and rapid. Moreover, high growth in prices can trigger a new wave of correction, according to conference participants.

Today, we can say already completed restoration of the market in post-crisis period, pent-up demand is almost completely realized, but in the metropolitan area the number of transactions still remains at more or less level. The experts noted that in the first five months of 2011 the number of deals in Moscow exceeded the amount for the same period last year. At the same time in May 2011 was recorded a slump in business activity that usually occurs in summer, but at the same time, buyers have begun to switch from prefabricated houses and minimum area of ​​economy-class apartments in the direction of more comfortable housing. Buyers no longer think only about the price, they get an apartment with "stock" - taking into account the growth prospects of the needs of the family and, even with the assistance of a mortgage, said Vladislav Lutskov, director, managing partner of the company "MIEL Analytical Consulting Center."

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The specialists say that in today's primary market is dominated by low-cost housing sales on government contracts - it allows developers to get the bulk of revenue from construction. Evgeny Dorofeev, head of corporate analysis of the bank "Petrocommerce", said: "The second part of the proceeds - a newly concluded contracts on market terms (as a rule, the objects are not yet fully unfinished), and the developers hope to maintain profitability is based mainly on these contracts . The third part - is building on state contracts separate areas of infrastructure (Sochi, ZSD in St. Petersburg, Vladivostok). " This expert is sure that no further demand on the mortgage should not wait until such time as rates did not significantly decrease and not pass the psychological barrier of at least 10% on most loan programs. Apparently, says Eugene Dorofeev, continuing growth trends of demand can only be "on the second part," which could lead to a shortage of liquidity in real estate developers.

Almost all the participants of the conference "Finam" agreed that property prices will likely continue to grow in the long run, but it is not excluded and a new correction. Metropolitan housing (especially economy class) can really appreciate by 20-25% in the spring of 2012 - all due to the inflow of funds from financial markets that overheated by speculative money, increases in inflation, in addition, will have an impact and the election race. But while such a price increase, based on the temporary frenzy, investment money and extreme range solvency of the actual demand may result in further decline and prices stagnate and, as happened in 2007 - after a record growth in 2005-2006 and after the crisis in the end of 2008 and in 2009, recalls the head of the analytical center "Indicators of housing market" Oleg Repchenko.

The most pessimistic forecasts of a rise in prices is manager of the Analytical Center "GdeEtotDom.RU" Alexander Pypin. According to him, even pre-crisis recovery of high commodity prices are unlikely to be able to resume the boom, the former to the crisis. The expert is confident that the citizens of Russia have now become more mobile in the issue of their money and began more actively to withdraw money abroad, but the earlier they are likely to be invested in real estate. On the other hand, the expert said, the lack of speculative component in the case of a new boom could lead to the fact that the main "theme" it will not increase prices tenfold, and the growth in construction and better meet the consumer rather than investment needs.

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Content tags: Property
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