Related article: Investment will flow to Kyiv regionNational Bank of Ukraine (NBU) forecasts GDP growth in 2011 and 2012. at the level of - 5 ± 0,5% and 4 ± 0,5% respectively. World Bank (WB) uhuchshil GDP growth in Ukraine from 5% to 2.5% in 2012 and kept at 4.5% in 2011 and 4% in 2013
The IMF forecasts GDP growth in Ukraine in 2012 will be 3.5 - 4% and 5% in 2011 draft budget for 2012 (zaregistr.21 December 2011), provides: nominal GDP - 1.5 trillion. UAH., GDP growth - 3.9%, the budget deficit in the amount of 37.1 billion UAH., or 2.5% of GDP.
According to State Statistics Committee, as well as NBU, inflation in 2011 was 4.6%. National Bank forecasts inflation in 2012 at 7%. The World Bank estimated the figure (WB) at 9.4%, less than 10% - IMF forecast.
Exports and imports
According to the SSC in 2011 on the basis of exports amounted to $ 61,950.2 million (same period of 2010 amounted to 34.3%), imports - $ 74714.4 million (38.1%). The negative foreign trade balance amounted to -12764.2 mln.
The dynamics of key macroeconomic indicators for the first 11 months of 2011:
• increase in retail sales over 11 months of 2011. 14.5% (same period in 2010 - 6.8% 2009 - 16.59%);
• increase in the wholesale trade accounted for 0.8% (1.6% in 2010. In 2009, he declined to 21.1%);
• real wage growth - 8.2%;
• growing consumer price index - 4.4%;
• increase in the producer price index -16.3%
• increase in the prices of construction works amounted to 15.4%
• The level of unemployment registrations was 1.8% of the working age population. In Kiev, the figure was at 0.4%;
· • chiselnost population in Ukraine on December 1, 2011 decreased to 45644.4 thousand
Limit the budget deficit in 2012 is set at 25.129 bln. Revenues in the state budget - 332 billion UAH., Local - 92.6 billion UAH., The consolidated budget - 424.2 billion UAH. Compared with the budget in 2011, expenses increased by 35 milliard.
Exchange rate of U.S. dollar (UAH / USD) in Ukraine is projected at 8,0-8,2 UAH / USD. Sharp fluctuations in exchange the government does not expect, plus or minus 1.5-2%. According to analysts, the fluctuations can be in the range 8.1 - 9 (UAH / USD) at the end of 2012.
The situation in the financial market of Ukraine in 2012 as in 2011, will not be easy, the main risks come from the instability of international markets, in particular of the eurozone.
Short-term debt and long-term debt of Ukraine is more than $ 50 billion, since this amount is significant, the reluctance of investors to continue financing is very critical.
According to Goskomstat, the net increase in foreign capital for the first 9 months of 2011 amounted to $ 3680.3 million, or 44.5% more than in 2010 (per one resident in Ukraine for about $ 1,000). The growth of FDI in 2011, analysts estimate to be $ 5.4 billion, a 15% increase from 2010.
By peredvaritelnym estimated inflow of FDI in Ukraine in 2011 amounted to about $ 7 - $ 7.5 billion
According to the Kyiv City State Administration (KCSA) Vol inward FDI in Kiev in 2011 totaled $ 2.9 billion (39% of the national total). KSCA predicts growth of FDI in Kiev in 2012 at 16%.
About 82 billion euros., FDI will attract up to 2025
The country's leadership, evaluates high level of economic regulation, and unequivocal success in improving the investment climate. Nevertheless, many experts say decline in investment attractiveness of Ukraine.
According to the European Business Association (EBA), the location of investors in Ukraine are not optimistic, because investors do not see improvement in business climate.
According to data obtained from the results of the 14th wave of the survey of the first persons 162 member companies (EBA), Ukraine is losing ground in all the rankings on the ease of doing business, corruption and global competitiveness. Data
The main reason for this negative image of Ukraine as a platform for business experts have called the rating pressure from the authorities, as well as the adoption of the Tax Code and the opacity law.
Mortgage in 2011 was not accessible. The increasing complexity of the banking sector access to foreign markets against the background of instability in global financial markets, and started on this background, the outflow of household deposits in local and unstable deposits of legal entities has led to an increase in interest rates on deposits and loans.
Interest rates on loans for housing were:
16% -26% per annum (in some banks mortgage rate reached 30%). Mortgage rates at 20 years exceeded 20% per annum. For the 20% per annum and are approaching 10 and the 15-year loans.
The average rate on car loan - 16%. Average interest rates on deposits - UAH (15.58%), dollar (7.43%), euro (5.88%).
Reduced rates of credit interest rates have been predicted in 2012
The growth in construction in 2011 in relation to 2010 was 16%. The construction industry is currently unattractive for foreign direct investment (FDI), mainly financed by the resources of domestic investors and state programs.
The main construction work was in preparation for the FIFA EBPO - 2012, and funded, vosnovnom, at state expense.
According to the SSC volume of construction works on the basis of 2011 amounted to 60.5 billion UAH. that 11.1% more than in 2010.
Almost 40% of the construction carried out by enterprises obuma 5 regions of Ukraine (Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Poltava and Odeskoy areas). 23.7% - of the total volume of construction work performed in 2011 in Kiev. Growth relative to 2010 was 16, 5%.
In 2011, in Kiev, according to the Ministry of Regional Development, Construction and Housing, was commissioned 1.5 million square meters. meters of housing. In 2010, in Kiev, put into operation a 1 million square meters. m.
In early 2010, were "reopen" frozen in time of crisis and objects as the house is built vsrednem 1.5-2, the majority of facilities were commissioned in 2011. The basis of the housing projects was economy class.
In general in Ukraine in 2011 was commissioned more than 10 million square meters. meters of housing, development of investment in construction in 2011 was 174 billion USD, up 20% more than in 2010, including in housing - 21.7 billion UAH.
Residential real estate market in Ukraine has great potential, because of obsolete housing stock, but the pace of its development will depend on Ukraine's economic development, availability of mortgage lending to the public.
International ratings of Ukraine
During the year there was a decrease Ukraine's position in most of the world rankings:
• The only positive change is rising from 89th to 82nd place in the ranking of the competitiveness of the economies of the World Economic Forum (WEF).
• The ranking of the ease of doing business World Bank Ukraine fell by three positions occupied 152nd among 183 countries around the world.
• The annual world ranking of Transparency International (the most authoritative international organization that investigates corruption in different countries), Ukraine dropped from 134 th to 152 th).
• The Index of Economic Freedom, calculated American research organization, the Heritage Foundation and the Wall Street Journal Ukraine is on the 163 spot. Among the 179 countries around the world. In 2010, 162 spot, and in 2009 to 152. Ukraine is now in last place in the ranking of economic freedom among European states.
• According to the annual ranking of the ease of doing business in countries around the world Doing Business in Ukraine became 152nd place out of 183 possible. The procedure for payment of taxes in the third of the world.
• In December 2011 Moody's downgraded the sovereign rating of Ukraine to "negative" from "stable" because of the increased fiscal and external risks amid uncertainty regarding cooperation IMF.
Overview of the investment market
2011 was marked by the increasing number of transactions in the commercial property market in relation to 2010.
The greatest investor interest was focused on properties and projects retail and office properties, with good locations, located preimuschestvenno in the downtown area, unfinished residential properties with the correct concept.
According to various estimates the total volume of transactions amounted to about $ 350 million investment activity in the regional markets remains at a fairly low level.
At the beginning of the year saw an increase in activity of banks in financing development projects, but since the beginning of the third quarter, free cash resources diffitsit sopudstvovalsya increasing interest rates and a reduction in program funding of real estate.
The interest of foreign investors in the development market in Ukraine is at a very low percentage urovne.Osnovnaya transactions accounted for the domestic investors.
One of the constraints growth in the number of transactions in the property market, along with economic and political risks, is the lack of "risk free" liquid assets.
The increase in investor activity in 2012 is not currently foreseen.
• Purchase by Monkar Limited TC "Square" on Lukyanovke (6 thousand square meters. M), the transaction volume is estimated around $ 14 million
• Consolidation of the company «Esta Holding" (SCM, Donetsk) 100% of the Kiev Central Department Store (CUM). 23% stake was acquired in 2010.
• Buying a retail operator Fozzy Group one of the stores DIY «New Line" (5000 sq ft) transaction volume is estimated around $ 10 million
• Investment and development company Alacor, sold multi-purpose complex "Gorky Park" French investor SCC. The transaction amount is estimated at about $ 80 million
• Investment transaction porodazhe BC in the city center (about 13 000 sq m)
• purchase of a Russian company Amtel Rgoretez area of 7.5 hectares, adjacent to. Shepherds of the Kiev region, with the aim of developing commercial real estate project.
• Purchase a commercial bank for office buildings (own use) in the central part of Kiev. The total amount of the transaction estimate the order of $ 25 Milne.
• Sale of logistics complex (21 600 sq.m), with. Most Aleksandrovka Kiev region. pharmaceutical company.
• Sale of warehouse, the company "May" near Obukhov. (Transaction volume is estimated at approximately $ 5 Milne.)
• Sale of BC "Shchekavitskaya", Frunze St. 23-25. (12 120 sq.m) TV channel "1 +1".
The total transaction volume is estimated around $ 22 - $ 25 million.
• The Ministry of Justice has bought an office building at 27 Milne. UAH. (1500 m), near the Artema, Kiev.
• SECURE Management, specializing in real estate investments in South-Eastern Europe, has acquired shares and real estate development investment company Aisi Realty Public Limited, sells real estate projects in the Ukrainian market
• The co-owner of one of the largest operators in the grain and oilseeds market holding "Kernel Group" (Kyiv) Andrew Verevskiy bought for $ 16 million 68.2% stake in KDD Group (Kiev).
Report prepared by Aurora Development