At the end of 2011, housing prices once again crawl up, but smoothly, without jerks, inherent in the pre-crisis era. Catalyst, experts say, will serve out the Russians associated with the presidential elections in the spring of 2012.
As the well-known tenet of the American admiral Alfred Thayer Mehena, the mere fact that the presence of the navy at sea has an impact on world politics. Likewise, according to the head of analytical department of IRN Oleg Repchenko, the fact that the upcoming presidential elections in Russia - and before them only a little over a year - can make a difference in the real estate market. In its report, "unaccustomed price dynamics in the housing market: the first time in 20 years," analyst cites data obtained for the first two - in the new millennium - the presidential elections. Repchenko believes that taking into account what is happening in the 90 years just does not make sense: the housing market had not yet emerged. 2000 election turned out blurry: the president was "the successor to Boris Yeltsin. But the election of 2004 and 2008 provide a very interesting dynamic.
In the first case the rise in prices began in late 2003, and for the first quarter of 2004, apartment prices have added another 15-20%. In general, the same year and a half - from early 2003 to mid-2004 - prices generally rose by 100%, with a thousand to two thousand dollars per square meter. Apartments snapped up like hot cakes: the end of 2003, the balance in areas of mass housing was no more than 90 thousand square meters. meters. What does this happen? According to IRN, the eve of elections, housing the lower price segment, "scheduled" for 2004 years, was largely left to the implementation of various social programs, but because the actual volume injected housing fell by almost half. Hence - and higher prices in all price segments.
Roughly the same thing happened in the first quarter of 2008 - prices on average add 20% for three or four months preceding the presidential election. And - again! - Just as sharply declined proposals: a considerable part of the model dwellings aimed at meeting the needs of the electorate - for waiting, war, young families, etc. In this situation, developers have not been able to not take advantage of the situation, and following the typical building category of commercial housing were positioned almost like real estate business class. Against this background, increased and prices for elite real estate.
"Under present conditions, this mechanism is unlikely to work. Construction and so reduced in connection with the freezing of projects in crisis. In essence, now the reverse is true - the return of the volume of construction in the pre-crisis level. Will likely factor in increasing the proportion of social housing in the total construction budget of new buildings to leaching from the market - the question is very debatable. Somehow, these actions of the authorities will take place, especially in the segment of the cheapest economy class new buildings, which is never enough ", - considers Repchenko.
Nevertheless, psychological factors may play a role: potential buyers on a budget try to get home before the election, because internal politics of the "new broom" after the election (even if re-elected Dmitry Medvedev) is still the time is a mystery . But top executives are likely to either put off buying until better times, or "invest" in housing abroad. So that the effect of elections on the real estate market may be twofold: this factor may spur demand for low cost housing (causing a rise in prices in this segment) and do not contribute to the demand on the road. Cheap and quality modern new buildings have a chance to add in the price (in late 2011 - early 2012. Because the situation today is more like the onset of stagnation). Since the autumn of 2011 the market "podraskachaetsya" grew into "a presidential rally, adding to the end of the spring of 2012 10-15% and even 20%, and that's expensive housing may well continue to stagnate, if not turn into a decline .
"There is another factor: the estate tax - adds Repchenko. - Before the elections, this topic will not touch, in the macroeconomic forecast of the government the year of his administration was marked in 2013, but it's bound to be unpopular among the first steps of a new president, whoever that was. It is not excluded that the scale of the tax will progressiruschaya - the more expensive housing, the more will have to pay. This is another reason for wealthy people to think before you buy something elite: maybe better to first see how many will need to constantly pay for it? ".
Oleg Repchenko believes that to wait quite a bit to active PR-campaign, which will begin Realtors - its beginning to come in the autumn of 2011. Come true if predictions will, of course, time. But if the forecast comes true, it would already be more likely to predict the ups and downs of the market - with an amplitude of seven years.