The global housing market lull

05.06.2010 11:49
The global housing market lull: prices have ceased to decline sharply. Stands apart in China, where, despite the crisis, the apartments in the last year conduits.<br />On the global real estate market is the most popular word today recovery - «recover. The sharp fall in prices was observed in 2009, ceased. Realtors and developers living in the hope that the market is slightly potopchetsya on the ground and blows up. However, while demand for housing is very small: the population can not digest even those mortgages that were taken in past years.<br /><br /><strong>Manual control in Chinese</strong><br />At present, the most interesting real estate market in the world - China. This is the only place where prices are soaring. According to May, the average price in 70 major cities in China grew by 12%. In a number of urban housing for the year increased in price by 50-60%. A two-digit price growth for the global crisis - a surprising situation. But it can be explained. In the acute phase of the global crisis, the Chinese government took fright at the fall of the construction market and has decided to support this segment as one of the main engines of economic growth. The government introduced a program that stimulates the demand for housing. Interest rates on mortgages were set at 4%, while the Communist Party strongly "encouraged" banks to increase credit limits.<br />Compared to Russia and America, where the volume of construction in the crisis collapsed, China has achieved its goals. Construction has not lost volumes, managed to escape and falling prices in the housing market. However, while the Chinese got into another trap. He began to quickly form a bubble in real estate. It poured attracted by low interest rates on loans speculative money that entrepreneurs are removed from stagnant production. In Beijing and Shanghai, prices for new construction business class in the central regions reached 8-12 thousand dollars per square meter. The Dangers of the bubble to China? Sharp increase in social tension: housing becoming unaffordable middle class. But if the bubble bursts, there will inevitably powerful shocks to the economy. And now, without waiting for the realization of this scenario, the Chinese government has drastically changed housing policy reversal. Now the real estate market began cooling.<br />Already introduced a number of measures restricting speculation in real estate. The first - the banks ordered to raise the rate for mortgage loan and the size of the initial payment of up to 50% for people buying second or third quarters. The second - more stringent conditions for borrowers, who can now only be issued for the purchase of apartments in the city where a person is registered and where to pay taxes over a year. The third - from two to five years increased tenure apartment, during which the buyer is not charged tax at resale. Fourth - will soon be a tax on second and third stories. While the debate goes, it will be calculated. There are two options: "French" (from the second apartment will be charged tax based on income, which could receive if they were rented out) and "German" (for the second housing simply enter higher tax).<br />On the new housing policy in China are serious disputes. Lobbyists from the construction sector are trying to prove that the restriction of demand will reduce the volume of construction and the economy it will be even worse. However, there is no doubt that the authorities will implement this reform. Interestingly, however, the parallels with Russia: our power in the years of unbridled appreciation of real estate in major cities have not done anything to avoid it. Did this rapid growth of large companies and construction industry in general? No. Major developers in the years of growth have become perverted, have lost the instinct for survival and were in heavily in debt. So the tough field of housing management in Chinese is more reasonable than the Russian ultra-liberal policy as the years of growth, and during the crisis.<br />In general, despite the crisis in China continues to actively build: here is constructed of about 1 square. meters per person per year, even in the specific numbers are several times higher than in Russia. Continues to implement programs and affordable housing: for example, in May 2010 the mayor of Shanghai announced the commencement of additional projects in this area. Already allocated land for 23 new district, where the soon to be built 80 million square meters. meters. That is more than in all of Russia and a half years. This new Shanghai areas immediately associated with the city center with modern highways and interchanges system is easy metro.Naverno, needless to say, that even in the Moscow region on this question is no.<br /><br /><strong>Desheveyuschie offices and the U.S. mortgage crisis</strong><br />In the United States for several years waiting for the crisis in the housing market. Over the past year thanks to government programs to stimulate demand wave of sharp fall in prices could shoot down. In some cities (Boston, Washington, Philadelphia) housing even slightly increased in price. However, in areas where until the crisis was granted a lot of mortgages subprime, prices are still falling heavily: Las Vegas (-29% per year), San Francisco (-17%), Miami (-24%), Detroit ( -22.5%).<br />Do not help even low rates on mortgage: Now rate 30? Year mortgage is only 4,9%. Reduction in cash due to the fact that U.S. bonds are actively bought up by international investors due to the sharply increased risks in the eurozone. However, experts say that by year-end rate mortgage amount to 5,5-6% per annum.<br />It is projected that over the next four years in the U.S. will be expropriated for the debts of 8.1 million homes (16% of the total number of acquired mortgage facilities). This will happen even if the number of unemployed did not grow. In 2010, may be alienated by about 4.5 million objects. At the same quarter of the estate, bought the mortgage in the U.S., now "under water": the duty on the mortgage on these sites has exceeded the market value of housing. To get "under water" is not so difficult: from the peak 2006 prices the national average fell by 28%.<br />Mortgage system in the United States effectively nationalized. Even in 2008, the largest mortgage agencies Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae were transferred under the control of the state. Only for the January-March 2010 Freddie Mac suffered a loss of $ 8 billion. During the same period in 2009 losses amounted to 10.4 billion agency dollars. Defaults on loans painfully hit the agency: the total state support of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae could reach 126 billion dollars. However Obama's plan to rescue the U.S. mortgage market considered unsuccessful. According to the Ministry of Finance, more than half of U.S. borrowers, refinancing a mortgage in 2009, nine months later defaulted. During 2010, the so-called subprime housing locations in the U.S. may go down in value by 15%.<br />Cheaper in the U.S. and offices. Rental rates for the year decreased by an average of 7%, but in New York, Boston, San Francisco and Seattle decline of 23-26%. However, this is part of the global process. In the past year and a half in most cities of the planet was recorded unprecedented drop in rental rates. According to the company Cushman & Wakefield, a European record for cheaper offices became Kiev - the rates for the year fell by half. Among the leaders and Dublin (-38%), London's West End (-25%) and Warsaw (-24%). Cheaper offices in Asia: Singapore (-45%), Hong Kong (-35%) and Tokyo (-21%).<br /><br /><strong>Increasingly expensive in London and opening Cuba</strong><br />The global trend in housing - the completion phase of the sharp fall in prices. But a number of countries from this trend falls. In Europe, a leader in reducing the cost of real estate turned out to Lithuania: for the year prices fell by 20%. The Lithuanian economy has faced great challenges: GDP falls, rising unemployment (almost 10%). Moreover, in previous years, when using a cheap mortgage was bought more than 80% of the housing market real estate bubble was inflated. Now this bubble deflates as active in Lithuania in the other Baltic countries - Estonia, Latvia and Estonia. The continuing decline in housing prices in Spain, Bulgaria, Iceland, Ireland, Portugal and Slovakia. But a number of countries have entered a stage of growth.<br />"It has become more expensive real estate in Great Britain: housing prices in central London from April 2009? Th to April 2010 rose by 20 percent. Stands apart Switzerland, where during the recession in real estate fell, and rose in price by 6.9 per cent and continues to steadily rise in price. At the young European markets - in Bulgaria and Montenegro - all mixed. They are the hardest hit by the crisis, and they will recover more slowly than the stable Western European markets - France, Austria, Italy, - says Director of Business Development Department of the elite real estate Knight Frank Elena Yurgeneva. Price growth in London has already caused a new surge purchases Russian. "In central London, the Russians are now the biggest foreign buyers - their share is 15 percent. At the same time more than half of prime property in London, acquired by foreigners ", - says Elena Yurgeneva.<br />However, prices for UK property should not be misleading: the market is very weak. This is borne out, inter alia, data on mortgage lending: in April 2009 they were at a minimum level since early 2000? X. Experts estimate that if the Bank of England will raise rates, then the whole country of 5 million homeowners will lose their property because of the inability to service the mortgage.<br />The Russians, despite the crisis, continue to buy foreign real estate. And buy, even where prices are falling for some time. "Now the Russians out of inertia (the theme - already bought acquaintances and friends) continue to buy property in close to the culture of the Slavic countries - Bulgaria and Montenegro. Preserved the demand for property in France, Germany, the Czech Republic. With an attractive credit rates have interest in Cyprus. In recent years, Russians have discovered Italy. Preference is given to the first low-cost real estate in the south, in the region Calabria, and real estate on Lake Como, Maggiore and Garda. The demand for property in Turkey. Its marginally addressed the crisis, moreover, there have been legislative changes that facilitated the purchase of Turkish real estate for the Russians ", - says head of foreign real estate companies BEST Julia Titova.<br />If we talk about new opportunities for investors, it is impossible not to mention Cuba. Foreigners were previously unable to invest in local real estate, but now the government of the island decided to take a step towards them. Initially it comes to resolving foreigners to participate in the construction of golf clubs and marinas for yachts. On the ownership of the property until the speech is just about long-term and medium-term rental facilities. According to the BBC, the representatives of the Cuban Ministry of Tourism have held the first talks with several investors who will be admitted to the local market.<br />Alexey Shchukin, Expert-online<br />
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