The arrival of the fall of Moscow real estate market is met by a Watchful waiting





27.10.2009 14:17

The index of price expectations (rate variability. housing prices)
Real Estate (www.irn.ru)
 
Sep 09
 
By August 09
 
The index of home prices (average price level for housing)
 
3.864 пункт.
 
-1,1 %
 
-0,54 %/мес
 
+1,5 %
 
Profitability index of housing (cf. housing bank. deposit.)
 
-2,16 б/деп
 
+0,2 б/д
 
 
Some were hoping to start a new rise in prices on a number of proposals in advance increased their price expectations - this was most noticeable in the most dynamic segment of the rental apartments. Others expect the arrival of autumn a second wave of the collapse of prices and some residual drift down overpriced objects, as well as low-quality housing, while still continuing. Nevertheless, at the end of September real estate prices in Moscow froze on the spot, without showing stable dynamics neither up nor down. Thus, in many ways was just the most likely forecast of the analytical center www.irn.ru, stated in the article "Which way will the fall of real estate: two scenarios.

The permanent decline in prices in September turned out to be insignificant. The index of the cost of housing think tank www.irn.ru down in September slightly more than 1% to 3.864 points. It should be noted that the bulk of this reduction has given rise to a month and the end of September, according to a weekly price index, average house prices finally stabilized. So the index value at 28 September was the same as the previous week on September 21.
In many ways, the final offensive of the stabilization of dollar in property prices contributed to the currency exchange rates. It is noteworthy that during September the dollar significantly surrendered their positions relative hack that provided additional support real estate prices. It is not excluded that the continuation of this trend will lead to even a slight increase in dollar prices that are technical in nature (due to the automatic conversion of prices, some of which are denominated in rubles). It should be noted that the ruble prices for apartments in Moscow, according to the magazine www.metrinfo.ru show oscillatory dynamics, in general, slightly sliding down. Therefore speak of a rising trend, even with the technical growth while the dollar index is clearly too early.
It is noteworthy that the lowest correction in prices in September experienced a modern monolith-brick houses, but most - mostly older housing stock: panel and brick five-story buildings, dilapidated housing. And the following tables allow us to understand, through a housing correction occurs residual averages. Moreover, price trends by type of housing and the index of the bundle of real estate market (the spread in prices between the road and standard housing) provide additional information about the behavior of the value of different classes of apartments in the current circumstances.

More diverse price dynamics in areas of Moscow. The greatest decrease in average housing prices was noted in the areas of: Krylatskoye, Khoroshevo-Mnevniki, Strogino Krasnosel'skii, China Town, now serving Biryulyovo East, West Biryulyovo, Solntsevo, Chertanovo Center, Chertanovo North, Novokosino, Kosino-Ukhtomsky, Kozhukhovo. The smallest drop in the areas of: Sokolniki, Tagan, Yakimanka Khamovniki, Ostankino, Rostokino, Shchukin, Pokrovskoye-Streshnevo, Teply Stan, Falcon, Airport, Otradnoe. By county: Greatest decline experienced Northern District, the smallest - North-East district.
 
Real Estate (www.irn.ru)
 
Sep09
 
August 09
 
The old panel (5-etazhki and other apartments with kitchenette)
 
3500
 
-1,4%
 
Types of panels (9-14 floors, sample area)
 
3614
 
-0,8%
 
Modern panel (16 fl. and the other square. enlarged square-action)
 
3814
 
-1,1%
 
Old Brick (5-etazhki and other apartments with kitchenette)
 
3800
 
-1,5%
 
Stalinka and standard bricks (6-11 floor, and the other apartment. small. pl-action)
 
4606
 
-1,4%
 
Modern monolith-brick (monoliths, led brick. pl-action)
 
4318
 
-0,6%
 
 
 
 
All panels and modular homes
 
3643
 
-1,1%
 
All monolithic and brick houses
 
4241
 
-1,2%
 
Apartments in Moscow (www.irn.ru)
 
Sep09
 
August 09
 
One-bedroom apartments
 
3812
 
-1,0%
 
One-bedroom apartments
 
3887
 
-1,1%
 
Two-bedroom apartments
 
3806
 
-1,2%
 
Large apartments
 
4055
 
-1,4%
 
Luxury apartments and affordable flats in Moscow (www.irn.ru)
 
Sep09
 
August 09
 
Index Article-Six "expensive " housing (20% of the most expensive apartments)
 
5737
 
-1,7%
 
Index Article-Six "cheap " housing (20% of the cheapest apartments)
 
3005
 
-1,3%
 
The index bundle (the ratio of o-Six "expensive " to "cheap")
 
1,91
 
-0,4%
 
 
Indexes of prices for apartments in Moscow are calculated without taking into account of elite housing and non-standard apartments, which can distort the overall picture, usually in an upward performance. Also indexes contain adjustments to the prices of actual sales, which makes them a little lower inflated bid prices.
Current situation in the Moscow real estate market can be interpreted in different ways. Since the stabilization of prices is a sign of the balance of supply and demand for residential property in the new environment. Now is not easy to assess the structure of housing supply, to forecast the volume of new construction, even harder to measure the effective demand for real estate, but no appreciable dynamics of the cost of housing up or down allows you to talk about achieving balance in the market, at least for a while.
On the other hand, stabilization of prices for apartments in Moscow can be regarded as a kind of pause, lasting as long as customers do not come to an understanding of whether they are ready to buy an apartment and at what price, and sellers - for how much they are willing to sell the property and there is a demand for the desired price. The macroeconomic situation in the country, still remains ambiguous, and all the main macroeconomic indicators, such as the oil price, the RTS index or exchange rate, although trying to grow, but uncertain, constantly bumping into another correction. Not surprisingly, the more inert properties simply worth the price on the spot, smoothing out all the "pluck" the more liquid indices.

It should be noted that the purchase of apartments, like any major purchase, in addition to the required amount of money and still requires a number of other equally important aspects. And above all, a sense of stability and sustainable positive trend with respect to income, especially if a person buys real estate loans. But just as the stability of the current economic situation in the country and not enough, so the transaction in the property market soon will be, most likely, cautious, with gradually increasing activity. The sooner there are favorable macroeconomic environment, the property will soon win back losses.
One way or another, but gradually the real estate market there will be more certainty. A more detailed understanding of the current situation and forecasts of the real estate market, experts of the analytical center "Indicators of Real Estate Market are invited to discuss at the roundtable" Rumors of the death of the real estate market are greatly exaggerated! "Which will be held October 2, 2009 at the exhibition in Central House of Artists.
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