Exchange apartments at suburban home
After this summer, the terrible fires due to drought, haze in Moscow, from which with difficulty saved gauze masks in the streets - the number of people wanting to move to the suburbs for permanent residence has increased significantly, judging by the number of hits in real estate agencies. But this does not mean that the market is ready to offer potential buyers an adequate cost, living conditions and quality of buildings options. Such is the conclusion of participants held October 7, 2010, the round table "to sell an apartment and buy a house:" grown "and whether the buyer is ready if the market?" Organized by the analytical center "Indicators of Real Estate Market in the XXIII International real estate exhibition" Domexpo "in the arcade .
Head of Centre Real Estate Market Indicators Oleg Repchenko believes that the crisis in 2008 substantially "peretryahnul" real estate market, segment and country is no exception. The conditions and rules that existed previously are no longer working. They have drastically changed and this required changes and from the participants themselves real estate market. Require changing concepts of settlements, the format of Realtors-sellers.
"Drawdown" prices during the crisis has been uneven. Liquidity and better than was done this or that object, the smaller was falling, the more errors and inconsistencies allowed the developer, the less he is forced to drop the price, the harder it became to sell. Quality has played a decisive role. If the price-quality ratio is adequate, then the house can actually sell it, if not - the price has to decline, and quite significantly.
Country market is interesting because it, unlike in the apartment market in Moscow, seemed to be no supply constraints. Almost all capitals developers have appealed to the fact that large areas are no more, Moscow is not rubber. And in the suburbs are no such problems, the geography of settlements is expanding further and further from Moscow. Shortage of land yet, but limited demand leads to additional demands from customers, creates competition among developers for the price and quality of the product - from materials and construction technologies to architectural principles, concepts and maturity infrastruktry settlements.
Over the past two years there was a strong migration of a country market in the economy class. To him the analytical center "Indicators of housing market" refers villages with an average cost of home ownership (including land) within the 15 million rubles. or $ 0.5 million Why choose such a framework? This cost is not the worst "treshki in Moscow, ie, at least theoretically admissible variant sharing an apartment in a country house.
If, before the crisis, the proportion of villages with such a value on the market was 10-15%, maximum 20%, then in 2008 it rose to 30%. Now according to this criterion for an economy class can be attributed for 50% of the settlements, which means that it refocused the vast majority entered the market over the past two years settlements.
Dignified and affordable
As noted by the panelists, is now on the country market is practically no options that would both meet the notions of "dignity" and "affordable" housing. About this portal www.irn.ru wrote, for example, the articles "90% of new settlements townhouses have their own infrastructure" and "Why Muscovites do not yet consider a country house as a primary residence?". Although the articles dealt with the portal and other features (for example, see "How to buy a cottage within 25 km from Moscow and save 4 million rubles.?" Sold "three rubles on the outskirts of Moscow").
The success or have some continue to be sold high-quality but expensive settlements or facilities, which attract primarily price. As soon as the cheaper options to the quality (or at least close to completion), prices rise. Simultaneously, developers pretentious, but not enough thoughtful settlements have drastically cut prices.
Market analyst - is the ability to see the trend
The result is the opposite direction to the trend noted Repchenko. Inadequately expensive homes cheaper and cheaper, but well made designs start to become more expensive. As a result, the average bracket remains "hanging" in the middle, and operate it even to understand what direction the market is moving right now (not to mention the projections), it becomes almost impossible.
Market metropolitan apartments has a large mass in the availability of analogues to be able to make any conclusions about trends in general (more on projections on the housing market, see the article "Overview of the real estate market up to September 2010" and "Real estate prices is waiting" buffeting).
"Now all the experts the real estate market can be divided into two camps - said Repchenko. - Some believe that the situation of the last two years - the time, had to let him out of business-class simplified to economy class, we had instead of prefabricated houses to sell the land without a contract, but this situation is temporary. As soon as the general economic situation and the solvency of the population is equalized, we must return as soon as possible to build a business-class and elite settlements, to stop selling plots without a contract and restore market 2005-2007. As a rule, the expert group predicts early return to pre-crisis level. "
"Another camp of experts looks at the situation differently - he went on. - From their perspective, before the crisis was an anomalous situation where almost everyone was trying to build and sell only to business class, elitku. But the prevalence of an economy class after the crisis - the process is not temporary, but long term, the future - for him. It is the tendency for 5, 10, 15. Price increases, if and will then moderate, it is better not to include in the business calculations.
An important feature of the suburban real estate market has always been that suburban housing was perceived as an extra. Even appeared stable term: "second home" and then "third house" in terms of foreign housing. The lion's share of buyers, purchasing this "second home" - whether in credit or free money - the main city apartment kept for themselves.
So suburban market could be as long before the crisis was attended by "crazy" money is super, but then he was not widespread. More or less a decent house, town house, even sometimes "kicked off" at a price of $ 1 million to become a mass market to megaprojects, conceived and planned before now, could be realized, the market has to come the mass consumer. Which does not have the money to simply buy a ready home, but can change an apartment on it (albeit with a small extra charge).
The bulk of the middle class in developed countries live in low-rise suburbs. It is well known. In Russia, this has not happened. Though like and prices declined slightly. In recent studies of the analytical center "Indicators of Real Estate Market stating that the index of average prices for houses fell from 104 725 rub. per square meter (cost of land) in the 3 quarter of 2008 to 81,896 in the 3 rd quarter of 2010. And the average cost of homeownership - from 36.3 million rubles. to 24,6 million This compares with adjusted ruble prices for apartments in Moscow. Although the cottages in the suburbs cost more expensive apartments, and the potential for correction looked promising. Townhouses cheaper - flat-section you can buy now is not for 19.7 million and 16.8 million for the (10% down). Although the number of townhouses on the market in general has not changed: from 107 villages, has 103 representatives of the most cost-effective format.
If we take other quantitative indicators exposed to the market towns ("Real Estate Market Indicators" take into account only the towns that are actively being built and sold in the primary market), their number remained virtually unchanged, declining during this period from 284 to 276. According to the Inkom-real estate ", which allows towns with secondary sales of at least one home - those in the market about 500.
But the number of settlements with areas without a contract increased, and they occupy about one-third of the market. Migration in economy class, the emergence of cost-effective formats, reducing the space, cheaper projects - all this is the reality of today. On the market again came a fork, says the head of the analytical center "Indicators of Real Estate Market Oleg Repchenko. Whether it will remain the defining trends during the past two years, or all will return to pre-crisis situation - time will tell. In the discussion dynamics this topic was also attended by Director of Marketing RODEX GROUP Armen Markosian on "Change the apartment house: there is the possibility and meaning?", Head of Marketing UK "Absolute Management Anna Shishkina (" Land without a contract: the problem or the future market "); head of the office" Preobrazhenskoe "Department of suburban real estate company INCOM-Realty Valery Lukin (" Country Market near Moscow yesterday, today and tomorrow - to develop and what to expect). More about their vision of events - soon to www.irn.ru.
But what's interesting: the Soviet-era success formula was "five keys. From apartments, cars, villas, office and safe. The latter two showed the social level, position, the first three - material prosperity.
And if you turn the situation, who can be called an acquaintance of a foreigner who lives in his own apartment in New York, Tokyo, Paris or London, and at the same time has a "summer house"? It must be emphasized, namely the property rather than renting for the season. If someone would call, then at his friends, apparently very wealthy (by Western standards) people. But even in this case, it's "summer house", which, incidentally, the residents of the U.S. or the UK prefer to look elsewhere, low-cost life of the country, experts say the portal www.irn.ru. So the Russian owners of economy-class villas are not that poor.