Review of the suburban real estate market for 1 half of 2010





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21.10.2010 20:10
Articles about real estate | Review of the suburban real estate market for 1 half of 2010 The main trend in suburban real estate market was the increase in the price: Many owners are of the opinion that the crisis is over, in this connection are revising their proposal in the direction of increasing the cost of the object. Often an alternative to improve the solution is to remove objects from the sale for several months, to enter the market already with the new price.

It is worth noting that in the segment of the country real estate supply still exceeds demand. New proposals in January, has not appeared, and both the "old" had not been defrosted.

Marked by a surge in demand for suburban rent in high-budget segment: 20000-30000 dollars. The reason for this was that customers who are interested in buying a suburban property, which price is above $ 10 million set aside the decision and prefer an expensive lease.

According to research by Department analysts MAYFAIR Properties in April and early May in the segment of rental and sale of suburban property
proposal is still far exceeds demand.

It is worth noting that the demand in the segment of rent suburban real estate can be characterized as small, but steady.

Despite the "opening of the summer season, the greatest demand continues to enjoy a cottage / home located on the territory of Moscow, or within 10-km zone in the traditional areas - ruble-Uspenskoe, Ilyinskoe and New Riga highway.

It is important to note that in both segments continues to decline in prices. Moreover, in recent months a new trend: liquid items at lower prices the owners of "leave" in the ultrashort time.

On the elite suburban rentals in the first months of 2010 activity was also quite high. By the end of the 1 st quarter of 2010 the average rent rate has reached $ 13,400, an increase over the period was quite high and amounted to 15%. However, the pre-crisis level of rates has not yet reached - this segment is strong enough, "dipped" from the moment of the unfolding crisis.

Suburban residential real estate market of Moscow region in a quarter in 2010 has not undergone any significant changes in the structure of sentences. During the period under review, the volume of proposals for country market suburbs replenished eight projects, half of which belongs to the high-budget segment of real estate.

In the 1 quarter of 2010, falling prices in the market-town residential suburbs stopped, but the price increases were noted. Despite this, most players celebrate spring revival of demand.

With regard to the overall revitalization of the market was restored in demand for objects located further away from Moscow Ring Road, than in 2009 also showed a tendency of redistribution of demand for houses adjoining plots of large areas.

The situation in the wholesale market of land suburbs still evolving trends in crisis: the total supply of sites put up for public sale, it remains quite high relative to pre-crisis indicators.

Despite the high volume of deals in the wholesale market of land near Moscow and substantially discounted prices, big deals for the 1 st quarter of 2010 almost was not.

The first months of 2010 were marked by fairly strong growth market of elite suburban lease. On the one hand, quickly increased the volume of new supply - in March, the number of new objects placed at the base of the company increased by nearly a factor of 2. In this case, the proposal received, including the "summer" cottages (homes, is billed directly for the summer period, and the houses of the long-term lease, but if there is demand are handed over for the season), rates which are generally somewhat higher than the market - at 15-20%.

On the other hand, demand has traditionally been very high, both for long-term, and for seasonal rental. The most prudent customers are beginning to actively choose options for a summer rental since February. It is noteworthy that this strategy is fully justified - despite the fact that the volume of proposals in response to the crisis have increased, quality projects were still few, and most liquid objects "left" from the market fairly quickly.

As a result, by the end of the 1 st quarter of 2010, the average level of rent luxury villas index reached $ 13,400, an increase for the period amounted to 15%. By analogy with the market town of rent rather high increase is due to several reasons (the positive dynamics of the market in general, and optimistic about landlords, the depreciation of the dollar shortage of quality facilities and the gradual "washout" from the market of cheap offers, as well as the seasonal factor for the market-town rent has always played a decisive role). However, the pre-crisis level of rates has not yet reached - this segment is strong enough, "dipped" from the moment of the unfolding crisis.

Thus, the decline in prices from the peak (September 2008) until the end of March 2010 was 34%.

The most expensive price proposals in 1 quarter of 2010 was Rublevo Uspenskoe direction. Rent levels, within which proposed a cottage area of 1,000 square meters. m on a plot 42 weave (KP "Landscape") was $ 100,000 per month. The same level of rent offered for the cottage area of 1,800 square meters. m at 120 hectare site in the SOE Likino "at the Minsk highway.

It is obvious that the growth rates in the short term, slow down - in a segment traditionally suburban rent peak of activity are the spring months, the rest periods the market is quite stable.

Today, the total number of projects on a suburban market of low-rise construction in the suburbs close to 800. Of these, roughly, 300 - put (mostly villages and 50 houses built before 2002), about 100 projects - are frozen in late 2008 - early 2009, and approximately 400 are at different stages of readiness and a robust sales . In turn, only 30% of these 400 will be interested buyers, because they are in the final stages of completion - built the house (at least 1 stage) and put all or 3 of the 4 basic communications (gas, electricity, water, sewerage). But only half of the 120 is almost finished projects under construction and housing and communications infrastructure.

As for the structure of sentences, it has not changed. The greatest demand in the market, as in 2009, in a quarter of the year, enjoys the property of economy and business class - about 80% of the total number of transactions. During the crisis, noted a serious decline in demand for luxury properties (30-45%), but in the short term, a sharp increase in this sector seems unlikely. If the increase and will, it is only a small - according to our calculations, it will not exceed 15%.

Changed the structure of demand - people are basically ready to take shelter. However, under certain conditions, possible to buy projects at an early stage. But only the experienced players - companies that have built more than 5 settlements, as well as stable positive reputation.

Currently, the market virtually non-existent buyers with investment objectives.

At first glance it might seem that in the period October 2008 - December 2009 we have witnessed a steady fall in prices in all sectors of Russian real estate. However, this is only half the truth - on the market present a number of companies that not only did not reduce but even increased the prices of their projects (the average increase was 20-50%). This is due, primarily, to the fact that the projects of these companies were either already fully built, or are in the final stage of implementation (this is 1 / 3 of those same 30% that we talked about above).

Despite the severe, in financial terms, the year, sufficient funds in the country real estate was, as with real estate developers, as well as from potential customers. Low activity can be explained by the fact that most market participants held up money for a rainy day "and if part of the buyer was justified, then with developers such hoarders played a cruel joke. In the period October 2008 - December 2009 was formed favorable conditions for investments necessary funds to complete the previously started projects. This is due to lower prices in the crisis as labor, building materials and associated costs. Those companies that have the foresight and invested in the crisis year, in March 2010 first shot "the first cream.

Also, in order to attract "real money", many of these 30% have implemented a variety of funding programs that positively impact on their status in the troubled period.

We expect that in 2010 - 2011 years. will be a lack of ready shelter, which will result in higher prices. Client demand will grow, and liquid product will be missing that would result in higher prices.

The range of growth - from 5 to 50% percent. Such wide variation is due to how development company saddled with credit constraints. If such restrictions exist, the price will stagnate (or you can expect small variations within 10%). If the company has no credit encumbrances (or they are insignificant), then the fall of the price could rise by 50%.

Currently, the most attractive for investors - villages in the early stages of readiness, implemented by experienced players (companies that already have a minimum of 5 completed projects). In this village on a quarterly basis the price will rise by 15-20%. Thus, for two years (the average duration of the project), the investor will receive 160% profit.

In the second quarter growth will reach 10-20%, compared with 1 quarter. But this growth is not speculative, and prudent: the key factors positively affecting the price - the company's reputation and the quality of each individual project.

In the last week of February we are seeing a surge of consumer interest, and if during April - May this interest will be stable since the end of May - June you can expect significant price increases. However, all this is true only for the designated 30% of projects are in the final stage. As for the other companies who for one reason or another are stagnating, we expect that this year they are stepping up their projects, but in the next year they will not be liquid.

We expect that in the coming months to continue the growth trend in demand, which reached 160% over the same period last year.

This is not only seasonal, but serious enough pent-up demand. If we consider the structure of growth, the distribution is approximately: 1 / 3 of growth - seasonality, 2 / 3 - pent-up demand. Also, do not forget that people have begun to adapt to the difficult financial situation and gradually increasing the number of citizens to think seriously about how to improve their living conditions by moving out of town for the city, despite the pessimism about the developers of the vice-premier Kudrin.
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