Prices could collapse





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29.07.2008 00:00
Today calculate how much property should be worth to the average of Kiev family could afford a real estate loan. It is time to remove the whisper of the talk about the coming collapse of the real estate market, we can speak in a voice that he had already begun.
Of course, not at times, but seriously have to give a seller who is not "above the pines with gold, but wants to entice a buyer. This process should begin with "primary" here is time - money: It is important to quickly sell the apartment and reinvest in other homes. The July as higher prices of new buildings in the metropolitan average of 1,4% (according to an independent portal "Real Estate") - is only a "burp satiety", hope that the buyer will pay, how much you want the seller. It is unlikely that, ladies and gentlemen! However, listen to experts.

Vladimir Germanov, chief marketing officer of the company "Kiev Lodging Invest, says that is" trench warfare "between the developers and their prospective customers. The first did not want to lower prices (although there are cases of alleged "season" discounts of 3-10%. - Auth.), While the latter took the wait and see attitude, hoping to reduce the price. Buyers benefit because the money - they have, they bought the music. But not in the loser will be, and developers who are ready to lower profitability and, consequently, prices of 15-20%. For today, their profitability is in economy class and 80% in business class - up to 100% in the premium class - up to 200%. There is much to retreat from the "trenches" in order to win customers!

According to a leading specialist consulting company RED Ruslan Kizlaytisa, the demand for "primary" has fallen by half, there is a glut of the market, competition increased. Stubborn, intending to compete with our customers, they will lose. In contrast, those who are willing to throw in the price of 10-20%, to seize the initiative. But this move may not work if there is no state support for mortgage lending (refinancing commercial banks by the NBU) and the potential buyers do not get borrowed money.

However, not all experts agree that the new building should become cheaper. PR-director of real estate development company "XX &; age" Dmitry Vasilyev, believes that an objective demand exceeds supply, this demand is just - postponed, he will return in the autumn, and prices will not succumb. Head investotdela design consulting firm Novobudova Dmitry Kolisnyk said that lower prices will be only those companies which they originally overstated, and the rest did not falter.

Rescue GOD AND KRUTELIKI "

Indirect evidence of falling demand for its "primary" is that developers are buying less materials. They do not have enough money to "chase the floors." Here are some midlevel dealers in building materials.

Sergei N.: "Thank God, build the church. I have set for cement and mortar father has paid on time and did not haggle, but I price so low. More help out contractors who buy cement, insulation and finishing materials on steep cottages. But orders from general contractors apartment buildings was 2-3 times less. I think they have had difficulties with implementation. "

Alexander P.: "Just do not call this new building: it can be seen, will be protracted, and there people do not go as well as I then will return the money? To me there is already owed more than 300 thous. for building materials. They say do not worry, come again: pay flat when completed. Something I doubt that will complete. "

"Secondary housing: WANT TO SELL - Throw price of $ 04.12 THOUSAND


Can justify the traditional summer stagnation sharply, by 30-50%, reducing the number of purchases at the "secondary housing: demand has fallen, it is obvious for a long time. In this sense, the grotesque is a desire to increase the value of their vendors' hatynok, the average for July - by 0,3%. Keep in mind, dear - both literally and figuratively - the sellers that the losses from the devaluation of the dollar (official rate in May fell by 4.3%, and in exchange offices - 7-10%), nobody will compensate. Fear not, that does not sell an apartment, if you greedy.

Poll shows sellers that they are ready to throw in stride at the 1-room apartment $ 1-1,5 thousand, and to "kopeck piece-three rubles - $ 2.3 thousand and that's not enough, have more to give, according to respondents" Today "realtors .

Director of the Academy of Sciences "Quart service" Victor Nesin noticed that there is no queue in the capital BTI - it impacts demand reduction since the beginning of 2008 by 50%, according to the decline of the secondary market. It overheated, unreasonably inflated prices - especially on "hruschoby" and "brezhnevki. Even the views of apartments fell to 3-4. To revive demand in tightening of mortgage lending by banks, retailers need to reset 5-10% from current prices. Hence, the 1-bedroom - $ 10.4 thousand, and to "kopeck piece - $ 6.12 Thousands of similar level of reduction in price" secondary housing "predicts director of development company" Link Development "Jaroslav Tsukanov. Prices, which was originally claimed by sellers, not so dramatically reduced. But as a result of trades on the sale and purchase transaction really get 5-10% discount.

According to the head of housing facilities in a consulting company "New City" Olga reading, people can not afford to buy houses, even on credit. Seasonal factor is no longer warranted, as well as problems in obtaining mortgage loans: home prices just too high. Owners of apartments that are interested in their early sale will yield $ 10.5 thousand to more profitable to look at the background of other sellers. This will allow the market to revive missed first trimester.

Director of the Academy of Golden Key Sergei Stepaniuc clarifies that a 1-bedroom apartments cost up to $ 90 thousand and 2-com. - Up to $ 120 will be cheaper, they still go for a month. But the more expensive options to fall in price by 3-5%, particularly "treshki" for which demand is low.

Plot: SOLID PRICE


Mark Twain's phrase about what you need to buy the land - it will not do, already acute in Ukraine. This product will be cheaper. However, investing in plots to low-selling has become risky.

Land near Kiev under the individual building steadily increasing in price. One of the reasons - the speculators who had gone to the market apartments, switched to the purchase of land. But here, too "fat" is already small, and a lot of hassle.

In July the price areas in the 20's 50-kilometer zone of Kiev has increased by only 1-3%. And it is not always the most expensive areas - Kiev Svyatoshinsky and Obukhov - "frozen". Moreover, the number of transactions compared to the spring, decreased by 30%.

Leading specialist consulting company SV Development Sergei Kostecki eliminates the possibility of reduction in price of any holdings - say, in this market rarely borrow, buy his own, so the mortgage crisis it has touched. Until the end of the year the average price of plots to grow by 8-10%. Already in August will show solid growth, "long lines" - Vasilkovsky (2,5%), Baryshevsky (3,5%) and Fastovsky (4%) areas. It is here that you can earn an income, if you buy and then resell the plots in scenic locations. But because of their remoteness from the capital to 40-80 km, such plots are good for country houses, but not for homes, so buyers can wait a long time.

President of the Land Union Andriy Koshil argues that until the fall of allotments in the 50-80 km from Kiev (they are undervalued) to rise by 2-3%, but closer to the capital gain the whole 1%. Besides, advises buyers to bargain seriously, looking Disadvantages: Distance from the road, gas and elektromagistrali, a great distance to the forest or river. With proper approach can achieve discounts of up to 10%!

Director of consulting company "Kansas" Zoya Nesterenko said that the current slump in demand is the time to buy land, because the fall in demand and prices will go up. Besides, now easier to see the advantages and disadvantages of the allotment. For those who want to make the purchase and resale of plots, the most promising and Borodyansky Makarovsky areas: roads and nature here are good, but prices are still relatively low. Riskier to buy food and Kagarlykskom Fastovsky areas: land here is even cheaper, but resell it will be difficult - too far from the capital.

WHAT HAPPENS IN THE CAPITAL REGION


On growth rates of value "hatynok" many of the local capital is not inferior to Kiev (YTD prices here, "secondary housing" have risen by 15-17%), and others, and are ahead! But local realtors say that until the fall of galloping prices will stop, the maximum they will rise by another 1-2%.

Price increase was the undisputed leader in Dnipropetrovsk, where prices start in 2008 rose by as much as 30%. There is already difficult to find the most wretched "unity" for $ 55 thousand

In Donetsk, the cost has jumped by 12-15%, one-room apartment on the outskirts have been going from $ 55-60 thousand

Same price at least shows Kharkov, where property values ??have risen on average by 12-14%.

In absolute value - from $ 60 thousand for the "unity" - Odessa meanwhile gives odds most provincial capitals. This is despite the fact that higher prices since the beginning of the year here - only 8-10%.

Not inferior to the prices in South Palmyra and Lviv, where almost impossible to find shelter for less than $ 65 thousand increase in prices in the western capital of Ukraine for 6 months was 20-25%.

Yalta is also not remained aloof from the national "race." And although the beginning of the year, "secondary housing" here has risen by only 10-12%, the absolute rates are impressive: a one-room apartment on the outskirts will not find cheaper than $ 70 thousand

How much can cost housing in New projects

Finally, and developers, faced with falling demand, there is talk of a possible price reduction. And it can not be symbolic, in 3-5% of the target, holiday and seasonal promotions. And how can drop the price a "square" in the new building of an economy class, which today is at least $ 2,000?

WHAT DO DEVELOPERS. Director of marketing investment and construction company "Kiev Lodging Invest Vladimir Germany said today that the cost of the erection of prefabricated house - $ 800 per 1 sq. km. m, under construction for cast-in-frame technology - $ 1200. This is the minimum below which you can not reduce ownership costs for construction. This does not include charges for land allocation, multiple bribes to officials for the "promotion" and obtaining permits, charges town. Yes, and profitability of contractors surpasses ...

Represent the ideal situation: to eliminate corruption, the builders reduced the margin to 10% (which is considered a very good indicator in developed countries, ie in 2 years required for the erection of houses, they will return to 20%). Then, taking into account the cost of advertising, the sale price of homes in economy class could be worth $ 1100-1500. Leaves at least 25% less than the present!

Another representative of the developer, who wished to remain incognito, called roughly the same figures: for $ 1600 "square" can be sold.

WHAT DO independent experts. Leading economist at the International Centre for Policy Studies, Alexander Acorn believes that fundamentally remove corruption component prices and to sell the land under the buildings on the open auctions. Yes, 100% ROI builders - chaos. Ideally, if you stop the rising cost of construction materials and, in addition, developers will rush into battle for buyers who are becoming smaller, the price of 1 square. m can be reduced by half - to $ 1000. But the real to fall - by 10%.

President of the Center crisis research Jaroslav Zhalilo believes that the price of new building could fall in 1,5 times (ie up to $ 1300/kv. M), if the builder will reduce its profitability to the average of 10-15% per year.

"RED PRICE" SQUARE METERS


Buy on credit a young family of 1-room apartment - then drive deep into the housing problem: when you are at least one child, it becomes clear that it was necessary to "start" with a 2-room apartment.

• It is more or less decent "kopeck piece" in a residential area of ??Kiev area of ??48 square meters. m worth $ 130,000, ie $ 2700 for "square".

• The average family earns in Kiev for two about $ 1500. The bank for a mortgage loan will require that the monthly payments on his service takes no more than 50% of family income - $ 750.

• For example, the family found a bank where the loan is given for 25 years in the U.S. by 13.5% per annum, with repayment of the loan equal monthly installments (tak. called. Annuity) and the advance payment only 10% of the purchase price ($ 13 thousand) . Hence, she needs a loan of $ 117 thousand

• «Start" will cost our heroes in the $ 16.8 million (to $ 13 thousand will be added to an advance of 1% state tax and pension fund contributions and 1% of the loan amount to the bank for making a collateral agreement - only $ 3.8 million). Not available the money - no chance to take the credit.

• The repayment of the "body" of credit each month to spend $ 390 on interest payments - $ 1316, plus 03% per year for property insurance and life ($ 62/mes.).

Total family need to pay $ 1,769 monthly that exceeds 2.36 times its maximum financial opportunities - referred to $ 750!

Clearly, with revenues in the $ 1500 no bank would loan beskvartirnym citizens on a "kopeck piece, they must earn from $ 3,638. And in order to "fit" in the credit for such earnings, the maximum price of 48-meter "kopeck piece should not exceed $ 55,000. Why?

To a family with an income of $ 1500/mes. had the $ 750 monthly cost of servicing the loan, a "square" in the apartment should cost at 2.36 less than today. This difference is the real possibilities of the family to pay the loan and the required monthly amount of $ 1769.

This implies that the price of 1 square. m should fall from the current $ 2700 to $ 1145. Obviously, this is at today, "red money" residential meter in Kiev. And if there is a gradual approach to it, the real estate market is waiting for is not just stagnate, and a sharp slump in demand and "dive" in prices.
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