After a price rollback to 2009, when the flats fell by more than 40%, housing prices in the past year continued to decline, though not at the same rate.
How it will last and whether to entrust their money to developers who put in a primary, figured Weekly.ua.
"Candle in the twenty-odd floors on the outskirts of Kiev, but in a good area - a green, clean air and clogged traffic jams until the morning and evening highways to the city center. The house is almost finished, it remains in some places outside oblitsevat tiles to the wall, insert the glass on the first two floors of commercial premises, to demolish the construction fence, remove garbage, asphalt paths and broken beds, lawns.
Price per square meter in the house - $ 1175. Spacious studio apartment is worth less than $ 50 thousand, five-room - about $ 150 thousand Date homes, according to written on the fence - December this year. Flats are already with interior decoration, it is possible to immediately move in, buy inflatable furniture and a little on her breath, gathering his strength before bringing the interior up to their dreams.
Immediately two developer-friendly banks offer loans with the current extortionate interest. But just wanted to take their money and buy themselves a home in this prestigious building with underground parking, which will cost a half to two times cheaper than asking for dead in an apartment were killed hruschobah around dvadtsatietazhnogo handsome. A year later, another will be refinancing, and the price of apartments in this house surely will grow not less than three-fold.
However, upon closer inspection, it turns out that not everything is so upbeat. For two months our close observation of the house there has been no change. Generally no! None of the tiles on the wall is not stuck. A study of the site of the developer revealed that it has exactly the same half-dozen new buildings in different parts of the city. And it became clear that the developer should bring money for an apartment in this house, as he immediately spend it for the completion of another of its object.
Another example from the life of the end of 2010. No less pretentious living block three kilometers from the "candle" in which we so wanted to settle. The only difference is that the second house recently passed the state commission.
Post about it in ribbons Ukrainian news agencies took place between messages that the IMF gives the next billion-dollar tranche stand by Ukraine and that Yanukovych left for an official visit abroad. Assess the scale of the event? Renting an apartment house in Kiev - an event of national and even global significance!
Interested in how much the developer that. At $ 2000 per square meter, said the sales department. "How so? - He was amazed. - Only yesterday there was not much more than $ 1000. Correspond almost exactly to Zhvanetsky: "Yesterday I had a thousand, but not handed over the state commission, and now two, but surrendered.
Those who had two, but surrendered represent space, poured concrete screed on the floor and framed by bare walls, which protrude from the water pipes with caps. The builder is ready to bring the apartment to the residential status of the project owner, but for some money. As a result, the price meter is almost pre-crisis.
Theorists and practitioners
However, for people with money and that option is beneficial, especially if the apartment is purchased for resale and do not have to spend money on repairs. It is clear that sooner or later, prices will rise at times - such is the law of megacities worldwide, Kyiv is no different from him.
The bad news is that virtually all other options are right in the interval between the two, which are described above. And the issue of "buy or wait?" Becomes truly a Hamlet-like, especially if you listen to developers and market experts.
Director of the project group "Archimatika Alexander Popov considers that the average value is incorrect, since the market there as a successful facility, and not very much. "Unattractive to investors at home this year, fell another 20-30%, and the demand, selling price by 10-15%", - he explained, adding that about 70% of the new building is not ruled out further price cuts, with some - Up to 30%.
The builder his opinion. "In the past two years, new construction virtually not yet begun. So now the primary market for real estate is represented mainly by objects that developers began to build even before the crisis, not frozen in a crisis, but only postponed deadlines, but they continued to build, and is now completing the construction ", - said deputy general director of real estate developer and construction company TMM Alex Govorun.
Can see that market experts theorize, and practice-builders know exactly what they have new competitors in the near future does not appear to dictate the price and they will be. The only thing that keeps them from doing so - is the lack of working capital. Banks do not give credit to them, so they rely heavily on cash customers. Who will buy, he will be able to finish building - and immediately zaderet price for the remaining parameters.
The same situation in other cities of Ukraine, from developers across the country because of the crisis the same problem and they solve them the same way.
It may seem that investment in new buildings - it is something like a lottery: you can draw a lucky ticket, and you can hang on indefinitely. But it's not quite true.
As mentioned, the developers are interested in the buyer's money, they have other yet. And, by and large, the problem of the buyer - to choose a builder who his buyer, the money will help finish the house and not pay them, for example, interest on long-standing and growing loan debt. For this Weekly.ua and made a rating of developers (see table), which does not claim to ultimate truth, but will save time searching for the same information independently.
Also pay attention to the dynamics of market prices of primary residence in the past year (see chart). In 2010, she consistently and significantly decreased, but whether it will continue in 2011 - the big question.
Now square foot in new buildings in Kiev costs from $ 1000 to $ 2500 (average price - $ 1700). Moreover, the current dollar is not what it was before the crisis. Even according to Goskomstat and inflation over the past two years amounted to about 20%, but in reality was at least twice. It touched not only the prices of products in the supermarket, but also for building materials, equipment, and, unfortunately, influenced by the size of bribes to officials. Thus, in the pre-crisis prices, square foot for $ 1000 turns into $ 600-800. Then, for such money selling pit excavation and a picture of the future homes on the fence around the pit, and now - virtually built house.
Clearly, bad, very bad for developers, once they go on like that. It is also clear that no further reduction by 30%, as promised, some market experts, will not. Rather, someone from the developers will go bankrupt and its assets for a song will get another, who will finish the house.
By the way, remember that dvadtsatietazhny house, from which we started? Each and every apartment in it have already bought. And the second - that passed the state commission - a free apartment, and now can be found for all tastes. This is the real situation on the primary real estate market.