Positive trends of mortgage lending in 2010, can predict the further gradual revival of the housing market. Unfortunately, high prices, though when the downward trend, while essentially negate the interest of consumers.
Related article: Banks are not profitable to evict borrowersLast year can hardly be called a success for the Ukrainian mortgage market, but overall, it was determined experimental attempts to restore the mortgage programs, but without the desire to achieve substantial lending. In my opinion, in the second half of 2011 mortgages in Ukraine will be hundreds of contracts per month, and in 2012 will reach thousands.
Before the crisis, we are actively working with a limited number of developers, because we were fairly stringent criteria. Checked all the documentation on the object under construction, carried out legal due diligence, financial analysis of the developer. Thanks to this policy, all facilities that have received accreditation, have been completed and commissioned.
If we talk about long-term Ukrainian mortgage market, we must consider the impact of two key factors. First - the real value of the property, the second - the availability of credit.
Relative value of the property there are various opinions. Some analysts note that prices have reached a minimum, others talk about emerging trends of growth, also has views and a further fall. Today, the population can not afford housing at current value. I think that prices have not yet reached the "bottom". In the next two or three years may decrease property values ??by 30% from today's price (stated by the seller) and it's probably a fair price. Reduction will be gradual, without any sharp falls.
The question of the cost of credit - the second key point. In the period of active lending rates were at 9.11%. Therefore, in Ukraine, financial institutions will issue mortgage loans in the previous levels, when we can return to the value of the loan at 9% - 11%. It is possible, but in 3-5-year term. It all depends on the level of inflation in the country, the willingness of customers to keep their savings in banks. If investors are willing to place long-term deposits for a year or more under a rate of 4-5%, if possible, and banks will lend at 9% -11%.
I note that the resumption of mortgage lending in UkrSibbank BNP Paribas Group started with the September 2010 Now we are ready to lend to customers for purchase of housing by 14.9%.