"Banks resume mortgage programs", "Mortgage will again be massive," "Revival of the mortgage" - these are the names of newspaper articles fall of 2010. The idea is that domestic everyman should breathe a sigh of relief: the crisis ends, the economy stabilizes, life is getting better. A sigh, cheerfully go to the nearest bank for another loan. Or at least get out of the gray depression and enthusiasm to meet the coming day. That's just nothing like this happens and in the foreseeable future is unlikely to happen.
So why is all that bad? After all, for example, in Russia, the real estate market has long been activated: prices are rising, demand is there, banks issue loans. May be the case in more developed economy, advanced banking system, long-term political stability? But here's another example - the United States. There are also all fairly well developed, progressive and stable, so only the real estate market and its main component - mortgages - very reminiscent of severe Ukrainian reality. And then there is no mystery: according to statistics, in 2008 the volume of mortgages in Russia amounted to 2% of GDP, while in the U.S. - 70%. The impressive difference! In Ukraine, decided to catch up and overtake America, though not by volume, so even though the number involved in this process. To live beyond their means, in debt, have all today, not thinking about tomorrow - such was the ideology of the average Ukrainian to pre-crisis years. Throwing himself on the neck of a tight credit noose, Everyman firmly believed that the laurel wreath of the winner, the new owner lives.
And then went to a chain reaction. Mortgage hysteria has caused unprecedented demand for property. Annually, house prices and land doubled. In the absence of the domestic stock market has become the sole property superpribylnym commodity, only the lazy and stupid did not invest there money. The share of speculation in the market was a good half - a kind of contest, who will buy up more apartments and plots. Struck up a stiff competition among banks for potential customers of the debtor as a result of which interest is declining, loan terms have grown, the procedure for issuing money is simplified solvency control was reduced to mere formality ...
Since the crisis began two years later. In place of reckless promiscuity came severe abstinence, because the welfare of the debtors has decreased, many of them have lost high-paying job. With banks more difficult. Problem loans have become for them a headache, an insoluble dilemma. Just like in a fairy tale: the left will go - the horse will lose, right - the head. Judge for yourself: take the court collateral - and trouble for a long time, been taken away sell at auction - at a loss. Forgive and forget - it is impossible to agree - is difficult. Certainly not the best time for the resumption of the mortgage. On the other hand, the banks - a clear surplus. Where will send them, as any credit? And, at first glance, the banks have decided to take the risk: announced the resumption of mortgage programs, lower interest rates, reduce the amount of down payment. It would seem, here it is, the return of the consumer paradise. But upon closer inspection, it looks not so rosy, and indeed is not so: people do not take new loans in a hurry, and banks are in no hurry to give them. Nobody takes a risk and everyone is happy. Just a question - why all this empty hype? We will try to answer this question, but first we need to retreat.
Over the past two years the country has risen in price, all but real estate. Paradox, because housing among the pressing problems of the person ranked first, along with food, medicine and clothing. Moreover, society has developed a persistent belief: the real estate is bound to be cheaper. Prices for it, though reduced, but not enough, the bottom is still to come. And what is the real cost of housing? And is there a formula that can calculate the objective cost per square meter of land, or weave, make an accurate forecast, and not suck the finger next sensation? In fact, real estate costs as much as for her willing and able to pay today. And the price is reduced to the very long as the object does not begin to fly. This explains why in some segments of real estate fell by only 30%, and in some - all 150%. So loud and outrage "the public" that "can not be our concrete cave cost more than the cozy European flat" is not heard. Can, once they buy for the money, even as they can!
Thus, pricing for the real estate market creates demand, which, in turn, affects the possibility of tangible evidence. That mortgage offers a real opportunity for the majority of the population. Increase in loans backed by the demand will inevitably cause higher prices of real estate, increasing its liquidity, as a minimum - ensuring the stabilization of its market value. This - is what banks need today: an increase in "capitalization" of collateral, if not increasing prices, then at least of its value. I'd venture: Talking about the resumption of the mortgage, means are not new, but already its loans, in fact their defense. Because at stake is hundreds of billions "hung" hryvnia. Otherwise the whole idea seems ridiculous - well, who will lend money, even at exorbitant rates, the beggar, secured his second-hand clothes?
When will earn a real, not declarative mortgage? Prerequisite: excess funds should be not so much from the banks, how much of the population, or "want" will never be transformed into "I". And it needs the most "small" - a stable economic development, improving the welfare of the citizens and their confidence in the future. Much to our regret, it will happen, especially not updating, not the next quarter. However, the mortgage boom of 2003-2008. we can not expect - and creditors and debtors have already learned to distinguish the lifeline of the collar.
Sometime Friedrich Nietzsche said: "What does not kill us makes us stronger." I want to add - and wiser. In times of crisis it is especially important.