In the scientific community there is no cause so much controversy as the issue of global warming. The fact that in the 70's of last century, ecologists naprorochili mankind catastrophe that will happen if we do not reduce harmful emissions to the atmosphere. 76Togda to their opinion hardly heeded, and in the 90's even started a reverse process - the media have begun to emerge about the publication that the impact of man on nature is too exaggerated, and the greenhouse effect - no more than a fantasy. The only thing that could make environmentalists - the conclusion of the Kyoto Protocol in 1997, and the adoption of the European Commission for Europe (UNECE) exhaust emissions standards "Euro". However, these measures have been somewhat belated. Already in the early 2000's started to show the nature of humanity who is who. Floods and storms in Western Europe and America, the earthquake in Japan, the alternation of drought and frosts in the world - according to scientists, all these phenomena are links of one chain, the basis of which is that human activities.
Abnormal same heat this summer in Russia and Ukraine in conjunction with the floods in the EU and frosts in the Americas and around the world does face a humanitarian catastrophe. As we were told a number of experts interviewed selhozkompany, this year in our country has lost a third of the crop. "Temperatures above 40 degrees for most plants is pernicious not withstand even a heat-resistant plants such as corn, - the director of the department of agricultural technologies AMACO Alexander Bovsunovsky. According to him, another is the summer will result in mass starvation, not only for our country, but for the whole world. "The most serious problem now in Russia. Due to last year's reserves, we and the EU will survive the year, but now need to draw conclusions ", - said the expert. A advisor to the chairman of the National Environmental Investment Agency Irina Trofimova said that there will be more and invasion of tropical diseases like malaria and African swine. "Today" to find out how these forecasts are realistic and what to do to humanity to prevent the catastrophe.
As humanity ACCELERATES NATURE
The main reason for the anomalous temperature fluctuations on Earth, scientists call the greenhouse effect - the process by which absorption and emission of infrared radiation by atmospheric gases cause heating of the atmosphere and the planet's surface.
The main greenhouse gases on the planet are: water vapor (36-70% of greenhouse effect), carbon dioxide (CO2, 9-26%), methane (CH4, 4-9%) and ozone (3-7%). Scientists estimate that atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and CH4 have increased by 31% and 149% for 300 years (since the industrial revolution). At first glance, for such a long period, this figure is low. However, the concentration of greenhouse gases have reached the same level as 650,000 years ago. Recall that at that time ended with the so-called glacial period, accompanied by sudden changes of weather on the planet. In other words, for three centuries, mankind has made the nature walk the same path as it passed without our influence for a little over half a million years! According to recent surveys, about three-quarters of all anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases over the past 20 years due to the use of oil, natural gas and coal. The rest of the emission is a consequence of changes in the landscape, in the first place - cutting down forests. But the likelihood of natural rather than anthropogenic causes of climate change is no more than 5%
The result of the greenhouse effect is the so-called global warming - increasing the average temperature of the planet's climate. It is worth noting that the "warming" - a very conventional concept. From a scientific point of view of the Earth's atmosphere is a complex thermodynamic system (in effect a set of physical phenomena variables: temperature, pressure, volume, internal energy and so on), which is in strict equilibrium. And as soon as one of the values is changed, it affects all the indicators. In other words, the excessive heat in one place can cause severe frost in the other. The main tool is the natural formation of weather on the planet - the Gulf Stream. This year, it struck ekokatastrofa - oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. As a result of the Gulf Stream slightly changed direction (closed up in the ring) and warmed himself, and in the Atlantic got a lot less hot water than ever before.
OUTLOOK: We are waiting for ICE AGE IN WINTER AND SUMMER intolerable heat
Naturally, the anomalies of this summer have forced scientists to look at environmental problems from a new angle and to conduct new studies. Recent data have been disappointing. The climate is already changing and will continue to do so, aided by several factors that are closely related to each other.
Over the past 10 years, only the Greenland ice sheet has lost 1,5 thousand gigatons of water. By the end of the century only by that sea levels will rise by 40 centimeters. If the ice loss will slow down, then rise to 18 centimeters. In total, the ice in Greenland could add to the level of the ocean seven meters.
2. Desalination of Gulf Stream
This flow is known to half the world warms, and the rest of the planet, on the contrary, cool. Imagine what life would be in Europe without the Gulf Stream, it is easy - just look at the Arctic and the Sahara. In recent years over the Gulf Stream is seriously threatened. The above-mentioned melting ice in Greenland has the consequence that the velocity of the Gulf Stream is slowing. The fact that this quantity is a strongly dependent on the salinity of ocean water, and it is due to melting glaciers desalinate. Slowing down as the Gulf Stream will lead to the fact that he would not be so effective heat to Europe, as now, and the mean annual temperature change for Scientists estimate that in 1,5 times. In other words, in the winter we will not be 15-20 degrees below zero, and 25-40, but the summer heat will reach 40-50 degrees Celsius. The painting, which draws scientists, is striking: the field will turn into desert, which in winter will be covered with ice. Agriculture in these conditions will die because no cultivated plant in this weather does not survive.
3. Air masses
"Disturbances in the Gulf Stream has already led to the fact that about 2003 the year we have changed the composition of the air mass", - said Alexander Bovsunovsky. If earlier to Ukraine and Europe blew wet and warm wind, it is now upon us is dry and superheated air, typical steppe. If the trend does not change, problems will arise with the harvest in 3-4 years.
CLIMATE CAN RECOVER
Despite such pessimistic forecasts, virtually all scientists, environmentalists are convinced that humanity still has a chance of survival. However, in order to use it, left very little time. The UN has estimated that in the last century have disappeared 35 percent of mangrove forests, 40 percent forest and 50 percent of the wetlands. Today, under threat of extinction are more than 7,000 species of animals and nearly 60,000 species of plants. But by implementing appropriate measures in the next 50 years if the degradation of ecosystems can not be reversed, or at least suspended. UN has developed a new International Convention on Biological Diversity, ratified 192 countries, and in September of this year, it should be supplemented with new items. In his UN program offers worldwide, in addition to loss of industrial enterprises in the amount of harmful emissions (Kyoto Convention) and to reduce CO2 levels in automobile exhaust (Euro-6), immediately take two additional steps.
The landing of the forest. First, you need to stop deforestation (deforestation), which is still ongoing. Tropical deforestation is responsible for approximately 20% of greenhouse gases. The fact is that during the life of trees and other plants they withdraw carbon dioxide from the atmosphere during photosynthesis. Rotting and burning the same wood (deforestation often occurs as a result of arson) emits carbon back into the atmosphere. To avoid trouble forests should plant again. Deforestation also affects the water cycle. Trees via the roots are fed by groundwater, where water rises to their leaves and evaporates. When logging the process stops, resulting in ususheniyu climate. In addition to moisture in the atmosphere, deforestation has a negative impact on ground water, reducing the ability to detain rainfall areas. As a result, humid and warm air becomes dry and hot, which negatively affects productivity.
Combating desert. The problem of desertification is directly related to the previous one. Today, due to deforestation is the degradation of the earth's surface. The total area of land affected by desertification is estimated to range from 6 million to 12 million square feet. km (as the area of Brazil). This process - very slow and will take about 500 years. However, if we do not start work on land reclamation and the planting of the forest (forest belts prevent dust storms), in 20 years, more than a third of fertile agricultural land can simply turn the sand. Horrific consequences - more than 2.2 billion people remain without food, which will lead to famine and wars for the remains of fertile land.
One of the main pollutants of ecology is the car. The fact that the waste gases from gasoline engines contain carbon monoxide (CO2), nitrogen oxide (NOx) and hydrocarbons (SnHm). In a diesel engine is more complete combustion of fuel produces less carbon monoxide and unburned hydrocarbons, but due to excess air in a diesel engine produce large quantities of nitrogen oxides and soot (which adsorbs on the surface of its particles of carcinogenic hydrocarbons). In addition, the combustion of low-grade diesel fuel containing sulfur, sulfur dioxide is formed.
Getting into your lungs, the CO2 causes headache, dizziness, fatigue, irritability, drowsiness, pain in the heart. Nitrogen oxides if it enters the human body are connected with water and form in the airway connecting nitric and nitrous acid, which leads to the development of lung diseases. Some of the hydrocarbons CH are the strongest carcinogens (eg, benzpyrene), vectors which may be soot particles contained in exhaust gases.
The European Commission United Nations in the late 90-ies, has decided to force car manufacturers to produce cleaner cars. Initially introduced Euro-0 and Euro 1, then every two years, this level increased. Since 2006, the year in Europe have started to operate with Euro-4, and from 2008 - Euro-5, and a couple of years promise to accept and Euro-6. These standards are referred to as a real challenge for automakers, since they provide for reduced emissions of nitrogen oxides and hydrocarbons for gasoline engines at once for 25% and for diesel engines - 20% drop in emissions of nitrogen oxides and reduction of as much as 80% of soot emissions. Initially, European producers revolted and declared that it's impossible, and "complete nonsense". But the technical solution was not such a difficult - to meet today in Europe the car, which produces black smoke, it is impossible. Ukraine has, along with Russia, as always, grazing the back. Today, we operate only with Euro-2.
Six years ago, Ukraine was included in the list of 180 countries that have ratified the "Kyoto Protocol to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change." This document is assigned to each country's right to a certain amount of emissions per year, and unused resources (quotas) can be sold to other States parties to the agreement, and received funds to start up on upgrades. Throughout the world, such trading put on stream - in every country, in addition to external trade, there are internal exchanges on which companies are selling the quota to each other. Ukraine, however their quota for the first time able to sell only the last year. Yulia Tymoshenko then stated that our budget has received 640 million hryvnia from the sale of quotas, and this amount will triple soon. Maybe it would have tripled, but the current Prime Minister Mykola Azarov strenuously looking for money, which gave us the Japanese in exchange for a quota and that it is not clear where they had been spent. A Japanese demand report - the money should be spent exclusively on environmental programs and the modernization of Ukrainian plants, and not just to settle the accounts of the Ministry of Ecology. In general, signed at the time the Kyoto Protocol, Ukraine began to resemble the near native, who taught the Europeans to exchange coconuts for money, but the basics of foreign trade, and common decency do not tell. Finally got to the point that Ukraine can not extend the Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2012. At the Copenhagen summit in December 2009, Ukraine was represented by the agency (AEI), where the country is not even included in the list of States parties to extend the protocol. Ukrainian unused quota for greenhouse gas emissions of 1.25 billion tons, which in monetary terms is equal to $ 12 billion, and for 1,5 years before signing a new protocol on greenhouse gas emissions, Ukraine will not have time to implement it.
Let's start with the fact that environmental problems, all countries should be solved together - the nature of state borders are not interested at all. In other words, we are obliged to participate in the global conservation of nature and in response to tightening ekotrebovany in the European Union to adopt similar measures and to the Ukrainian Transport and to the industry, despite the fact that this requires a huge cost - to business "dirty" production is more advantageous than an eco-friendly. On the other hand, if we would have nothing to eat and can not breathe, will be valued money? We surveyed the experts suggested Ukraine a few steps that will help avoid a global catastrophe.
Ekozakonodatelstvo. His first, need to tighten by taking such serious penalties for the pollution that large businesses would be cheaper to buy "green" equipment rather than continue to use the tools of the last century. Secondly, you need to implement an accurate system of calculating greenhouse gas emissions - not knowing how much we throw away, we have difficulty and trade surpluses, and control the process. Interestingly, she has already been developed, and Ukrainian programmers. Manager of IT companies Softengi (part of the consortium Intecracy group) Andrei Dogadin said that their development has been successful in the U.S. and the EU. Business for small - will guide our country. Third, the country's urgent need to introduce road to Euro-4 and fined for their violation, or chadyaschimi trucks for a long time will poison our lives.
Ecological culture. Of course, that without understanding the problem at all levels of society, the problem is resolved. As in the EU, we need to promote ecological awareness, and, as adults, through the media, and children still at school. As long as young and old, will not begin to understand what the consequences of, for example, washing the car near the lake and dump garbage in the woods, about any environmental talk is meaningless. Now, over the warnings of ecologists all just laugh.
Political will. Of course, to move the process off the ground, you need commitment by national leaders: president, prime minister and opposition. Our policy for many years thinking about what might unite the country. But why would not we all join together to solve environmental problems? And this problem should unite not only the citizens of Ukraine but also neighboring countries. This writer understands that this idea still sounds unreal, but what you're waiting for the moment when the clap of thunder - in fact much easier to take action now. Moreover, the present heat serves as a signal that tomorrow may be too late.