Despondency among brokers
For 25 years, a well-known Wall Street strategist Byron Wayne, is now working with The Blackstone Group, spends the summer meeting with the wealthy to get their view on the economy and investment. They once attended such legends as George Soros, Julian Roberson. Writes CNBC.com, this year about 50 rich, among whom there were more than 10 billionaires were extremely pessimistic in assessing the prospects for the U.S. economy, investment opportunities and the administration of President Obama.
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Long term they see the U.S. under conditions of slow growth, short term - say a second wave of recession - a "double bottom" highly probable Wayne shares information with customers Blackstone. The Obama administration is seen as hostile to business, so companies do not hire new staff and little invested in the expansion. Only a few participants believe that the S & P 500 may reach 1200 points in 2011 (now - 1110).
What billionaires are buying in such times? Among the investments vacant office buildings, farmland and assets in Africa. Not very suitable choice for the average investor. Frightening Wayne called the fact that among the participants of the meeting there was virtually no dissent. However, the crisis of 2007-2008. showed that most fallible.
Senior portfolio manager of Renaissance Wealth Management Alexander Krapivka told Vedomosti that Russia's wealthiest investors in modern times are often increased demand for bank deposits: "They see that the market shares they do not give 25% yield and higher, and go en masse to the banks" .
Injections no longer help
According to a survey released today by the WSJ, economists continue to lower growth forecasts for the U.S. economy in 2010 and 2011. Now, in the III and IV quarters are expected to increase GDP on 1,9% and 2,4% in annual terms, the previous consensus - 3% in both cases. Department of Commerce recently said the figure of the II quarter - 1,6%.
Average re-evaluation of the probability of recession within the next year - 22%. Despite a likely slowdown, economists predict a decline in unemployment to 8.9% by the end of next year, at the end of August she was 9,6%. According to experts, within a year the economy will be 1.66 million new jobs, and problems in the labor market are not systematic, and cyclical. Probability of winning the Republican in the upcoming congressional elections due to falling confidence in the Obama administration's economists estimate as a positive factor for the stock market. But the growth may be short - Congress is not able to cope with an economy regardless of who the majority, said Nicolas Perna of Perna Associates.
Three out of five respondents believe that the U.S. Federal Reserve will buy a significant amount of securities from the market slowing the economy by providing liquidity. But while two out of three believe that such action the regulator will fail. "Problems faced by the economy - not the problems of monetary policy", - quotes the WSJ Rem Bhagavatulu of Combinatorics Capital. Most of the respondents believed that the Fed will raise rates by 0.25 percentage points in the second half of 2011 (now 0-0,25%), more than a quarter of respondents believe that the increase will not happen before 2012
Head of Research Department of Deutsche bank in a column published today on the site Vedomosti argue with the theory of "second wave": "It seems that the markets did not want to come to terms with the fact that economic recovery was somewhat easier than expected by sophisticated scheme" new prophets . Unprecedented turnaround incentive to take effect, but the same stimulus suddenly became perceived as a harbinger of the "new wave" crisis. "
Elena Shushunova Gazette