The most important indicator of the financial crisis in Russia and the world became the property sector. In Russia, it was the builders were the biggest consumers, and most of long-term bank loans. The crisis has led to an almost complete "zeroing" in demand for mortgages and a sharp reduction in price-value ratio. Troubles that have undergone the banks, too, "put" into development, well-known. Nevertheless, in 2010, crediting the construction sector is slowly beginning to recover.
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According to statistics from the Central Bank, in 2009 the total debt of the construction sector to the banks has not changed, but the first 9 months of 2010 it grew by about 11% to 1.2 trillion rubles. That is, the growth of "construction" loan portfolio has resumed, although not such as the earlier rate (in 2008 it grew by 36% in 2007-th - 87%). During the 10 months of 2010 the builders issued 902 billion rubles of loans in rubles, while in the same period the previous year - 695 billion, compared with the intensity of the crisis period lending to builders has increased by 30%.
For all time of the crisis the Central Bank statistics did not record decline in the share of construction in the loan portfolio of the banking system. Moreover, even this figure is growing, albeit very slowly: the beginning of 2008 it stood at 6% a year later - 6,1%, and now it is about 6,4%.
However, official statistics do not reflect how the reality of reduced "flow" of financial resources from banks to builders. "The thing that hung, restructured and overdue loans have not gone anywhere (they make up 80% in total) - explains Edward Savulyak of Tax Consulting U. K. - The new issued on completion, upon the restructuring of not more than 20% of the portfolio. " Therefore not surprising assessment CEO of Monarch Development "Andrew Bakunicheva, who believes that today the volume of lending to developers three times less than before the crisis.
Lack of bank loans has led to the freezing of construction projects, and their resumption in 2010 - respectively to the partial unfreezing.
How many construction sites have been frozen, is unknown. Expert estimates are much discord. For example, the commercial director of "City-XXI Century" Vitaly Razuvaev sure that during the crisis have been suspended construction about 30% of the objects.
Much higher figure refers to Edward Savulyak - from 70 to 80%. Company director AZIMUT Hotels Company Alexander Gendelsman generally assesses the proportion of stopped construction projects in 85%. In any case, it is clear that the sector of commercial real estate "freezing" struck with greater force than on housing. Agency experts "Investkafe" believe that in times of crisis, almost 90% of the projects for commercial real estate have been frozen.
However, now thanks to renewed funding of the construction sites once restored, but their share is relatively small. Edward Savulyak believes that resumed today between 10 and 20% frozen during the crisis projects.
With this estimate agrees Andrew Bakunichev. Alexander Gendelsman more optimistic and believes that the percentage of "reactivation" to date is 30%. Thus, we can say that to date more than half of all projects that crisis found in an unfinished state, is still in a state of freeze.
On the question of how, compared to pre-crisis times, decreased the proportion of bank loans to finance construction projects, experts from the three organizations (AZIMUT, Russian Union of Builders and Investkafe) gave roughly the same figures: in 2008, borrowed funds accounted for approximately 90% construction budget by the end of 2010 it was already about 70% or less.
In this renewed financing the construction of only the largest state and private banks: VEB, Sberbank, VTB, MDM, Alfa, Uralsib, Bank of Moscow. Deputy Head of Research "Investkafe Alexander Lozovaya explained by the fact that the largest banks more opportunities to attract" long "and cheap resources for lending to construction projects that involve long-term implementation in the current environment have an increased risk. In addition, we must remember that through the state-owned banks financed a significant number of public buildings - APEC-2012, the 2013, 2014 Olympics, World Cup 2018, which guarantees repayment in fact is the state.
As for the other banks, then, as the head of the working group on financing the construction of the Russian Union of Builders (RCC) Michael Urinson, many banks out of the top 100, expressing willingness to fund the developers impose too stringent that most borrowers in the current environment can not satisfy.
Expert assessments supporting financial data. If we compare the statistics of the Central Bank with the international reporting of major banks, we can see that during the crisis has been a serious redistribution of "construction loan" in favor of the largest banks and in particular the Savings Bank. One in three construction loans in the country today issued by Sberbank. Generally, more than 60% of all bank loans to construction accounted for three main creditor: Sberbank, VTB and VEB.
It is true that the largest banks performed an unequal policy. If the Savings Bank and Bank of Moscow has stepped up lending to construction, the VTB is clearly out of the sector. From January 2009 till October 2010 the amount of loans to builders of VTB dropped by almost a third (from 374 to 254 billion rubles), while the share of construction in the Bank's loan portfolio decreased from 14 to 9%. During the same period in the Savings Bank, it increased from 5,3 to 7,2%. From what we can conclude that the VTB realized that before the crisis, "climbed" in building too deeply, and gave a "back up". Sberbank is virtually replaced the "little brother" in this field.
Some of the projects suggest that this is quite deliberate policy of Sberbank, which, using the "sagging" of the market, trying to strengthen their position in it. An example of this can be a unique contract to build a complex of 14 cottage communities in the Istra district near Moscow.
Feature of this project is that the Savings Bank will lend not only construction but also the acquisition of land, and, contrary to tradition, as collateral would serve themselves of land, even without a work contract. Until now, bankers have preferred not to communicate with the outside Moscow underground, legal clarity is poor. And if they dare to give her a loan, then just bail obviously more expensive urban real estate. Sberbank acted as contrary to tradition.
Risk management after the crisis
Heavy experience gained by banks during the crisis, could not help but reflect on their approaches to assessing credit project and provide loans.
Today, for the analysis and calculation of risks banks are spending much more time and effort than ever before. "To check the real estate development projects, the Bank maintained a set of pre-crisis conditions". But the approach to the verification of projects and developers become more rigid: checked economic security, financial stability of companies "- says Andrew Bakunichev (" Monarch Development "). Important - banks have to "monitor" the implementation of the financed project on a continual basis.
To do this, in some cases, a bank representative has the right to receive a board member development company. Vice-President of the Moscow Industrial Bank (IIB) Yuri Ptitsyn also notes that the cases of the signing of contracts between banks and specialized companies that have technical control over the construction progress and determining the amount of work performed. In addition, many bankers have taken a personal guarantee from the business owners for loans to projects.
Moreover, banks have become interested in not only receiving interest on loans and equity income at least as a minority shareholder.
Interviewees "F." experts have called for a number of truly new construction projects are already running in the post-crisis, thanks to bank loans. Thus, in the capital of high-rise residential complex BOGORODSKII, whose construction began in the fourth quarter of 2009, 65% implemented by international institutions. Began to build hotels in Moscow and St. Petersburg. The company "Alur" launched the construction of the neighborhood area
300 thousand square meters. meters in Tyumen.
However, such projects until the unit. Those finance, which can extract, are primarily used for "unfreezing" of old objects, or, in extreme cases, the development is already running. And it's not all. "If, during the active investment rise developers bring to market new projects in the premium segment, now dominated by the new proposal more objects comfort and economy" - says Vitaly Razuvaev ("City-XXI Century"). Thus, cheap home thawed before expensive, but housing has taken precedence over commercial real estate.
Restoration of construction lending, of course, helped by the fact that during the crisis, banks have entered the capital and several developers are now forced to continue to fund already subsidiaries. The most striking example of this - the transitions of companies "Don Story" and "Sistema-Hals is under the control of VTB.
"In my own experience can say that the company" Don Story Invest ", having received the support of his partner - Bank VTB, was able to most effectively plan for completion of work under each residential complex being built for quick commissioning of facilities - said" F. " the press service of "Don Story Invest.
- Only in the second half of 2010 in partnership with the Bank completed seven residential complexes with a total area of more than 700 thousand square meters. meters. Availability of financial partner in the bank gives the developer a huge advantage - both in terms of opportunities for sustainable projects, and in the form of high consumer demand for collateralized by bank guarantees under construction.
Market participants expect the bank lending the construction industry to reach pre-crisis level of about 2013. According to Michael Urinson (RCC), it will happen "by funding a new and restructured projects, development of non-core land assets, referred to the balance sheet of banks." Agrees with him and Andrew Bakunichev. "Presumably the pre-crisis levels of lending can be reached in two years" - he said.
True, according to Alexander Lozovoi from "Investkafe" basic condition for achieving pre-crisis level of funding is the recovery of demand, which calls for access to pre-crisis GDP growth (7-8% per year). Meanwhile, the government is nothing like it in the next few years is not promising. And banks are not willing to substantially mitigate the credit conditions.
According to Alexander Gendelsmana to catch up with the pre-crisis volumes, it is necessary that the loans were no less than 15 years, and the rate - no more than 5-7%. Meanwhile, bank credits are the builders (ie, those lucky enough to receive them) at 10-15%, although, according to market participants, starting in October in the negotiations between the banks and builders have featured such rates as 10-13%.