Realtors, persistently predicted a recovery in residential real estate market and the inevitable rise in prices, now do not rule out further reductions.
The companies earn on the sale of apartments, can not hide: their statement that the Ukrainians are about to begin en masse to buy houses, and prices are crawling up, turned out to be untrue.
Even in large cities (Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Lviv, Odessa and Kharkiv) transactions is extremely low, as citizens who can still afford to buy a flat, hard wait for lower prices. And their aspirations in most cases they are the real ground, writes Business Capital.
Developers are increasingly satisfied with the action, offering potential shareholders of their projects an additional bonus, and the owners of the squares on the secondary housing in the form of real money often agree to give up the property for far less money than originally anticipated. However, this market collapse, as in 1998, will no longer be: the owners will not reduce the value of property in two or three times, knowing from experience that with time it will still return to the previous mark.
In most megacities of the country instead of an expected surge in demand for the autumn real estate market shows stagnation. For example, Kharkov agency concluded in October, up to five transactions - three times less than in the same period last year, and six, than before the crisis. In Lviv, many real estate offices and do nothing to boast of, although until 2009 they were sold for 30-45 a month.
Bad buy even elite objects, for which demand in the most difficult times, there was a small, but stable. Experts say that the Ukrainians, funky gloomy forecasts about the prospects of the domestic economy, are waiting for lower prices. But how real is in the near future sale?
Ukrainian real estate market - quite inert and cumbersome mechanism, "restart" which is extremely difficult. It is worth remembering at least the beginning of the crisis, which sellers stubbornly ignored for several months. And if the prices of the primary if not reduced, then at least have been recorded in the hryvnia equivalent, then for the secondary housing owners asked for the old price lists and dollars. That is, for ordinary Ukrainians, not receiving a salary in the currency, housing became a half times more expensive.
Since early 2009, vendors began to sober up a little, especially since the offer on the market has been increasing: from extra apartments rid speculators and those who could not repay expensive bank loans. Then prices fell by half in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk and Kharkov, and Odessa and Kiev - dropped to third.
But these concessions look generous only in dollars. When converted to hryvnia discount if somewhere there were, it was not impressive. "Unity" in Kiev, sell before the crisis for $ 100 thousand, seemingly fell to $ 70 thousand, but in the national currency is not offered for 500 thousand UAH. As in 2008 and has over 560 thousand UAH.
When the first panic attack in the market has passed and sellers were convinced that no mass ejection secured apartment is not observed, Realtors once again began to accustom people to the idea that "the price bottom has already passed and need to buy, yet cheap. As a result, over the last year housing "became more expensive on average by 10%. But this growth in the value of the square - a fiction. At the sight of real money the owners of apartments, usually offer the same discount.
Now in most regions of the country's proposal for sale of objects exceeds the demand at times. In Kiev on the secondary housing sold about 10 thousand, and in the primary - 11 thousand apartments. In databases Kharkov Realtors - 4 thousand proposals, Odessa - 6 th, Donetsk - 8 th
At the same time every month even in the capital is sold at most about 1 thousand apartments in other cities over one million people - up to 300-400. That is, the average apartment with an acceptable quality / price ratio has a chance to find a new owner only after three to six months after it was put up for sale. In reality, many objects hanging in the databases of more than a year. Nevertheless, to reduce their cost of owners are not collected, because they believe that soon their property will again be in the price, and prefer to wait out the uncertain times with minimal loss to themselves. "Sharp price can derail a one-time release to market low-cost housing.
But where did it take? Banks, as shown, do not want to put collateral at bargain prices, because they themselves are not interested in it cheaper. Private well owners are at a significant cost reduction only in extreme cases, and weather in the industry this term sales do not "- said a representative of the agency Sitikon Eduard Brazas.
Derail the price of secondary housing could theoretically be cheaper primary cell. Concessions to developers to potential buyers over the past two years have been, but again not as tangible as we would like. The most significant price declines since the crisis took place in Kharkov, where a lot of build, and low incomes. There's the cost per square meter last year alone has dropped from 4 thousand UAH. to 3,2 ths. (Before the crisis, she was 5 ths.).
But in other cities where there is an acute shortage of vacant lots for developers to behave differently. In Odessa, even for an apartment in a new economy class are asked to 8 thousand USD / sq. m, which is at least 500 UAH. more expensive than before the crisis. In Kiev, the proposal will start with 10 thousand USD / sq. m
At first glance, the prices are obviously inflated. The more that officials of different ranks claim that they should not exceed $ 400 per square. But developers say that the authorities are to blame for high prices of the primary, as payment for land acquisition and contributions to the "infrastructure" projects make very costly.
"The price of this component of the construction business may increase the cost of the object twice", - says General Director of TMM Company Mykola Tolmachev. According to him, the majority of developers are now making a discount on their facilities to the same extent, which could cut costs for wages and materials. Realtors argue that developers are cunning and still operate with efficiency 30-75%, and initiated the objects that will not be able to bring an ambulance profit, just frozen.
According to the very same Mr. Tolmachev, now in the regions of the country's suspended 90% of the buildings, but Kiev - 80%. And in many cases work is carried out only for the visibility to attract potential real estate investors in the project. It turns out that nearly finished houses of new competitors in the near future will not appear.
Ukrainians do not satisfy
Demand for housing in Ukraine, has not disappeared anywhere. We are still a shortage of apartments, and each year it only grows. Of the current 800 million square meters. m of housing stock annually for depreciation wear 2%, although in practice this figure could be more. To make up for these losses in the country must report annually to build 16 million square meters. m of housing.
According to Goskomstat, last year commissioned 2.3 million square meters. m, and the relatively prosperous 2008 - 5.8 million square meters. am and expect to increase these figures by at least naive. According to official statistics, every Ukrainian for 23 square meters. m living space, which is about 10 times less than in the U.S.. So what to expect from our estate of such a collapse, as they have (cheaper accommodation there are three to four times), it is not necessary.
The current poverty citizens again postpones the demand for housing for an indefinite period. As the real estate brokers, virtually all regions are being implemented only very low-cost apartments, even "morally and physically obsolete. And few buyers are traded mercilessly. And up until not resume mortgage lending, expanding the circle of potential buyers, sellers can not really raise prices.