What are the most pessimistic and most optimistic variants of mortgages on the secondary real estate market in 2014? What could be the rate dynamics , the presence of zero and a small advances , the ability to take for long periods of 25 and 30 years, etc. ? Learned Prostobank.ua.
Alexei Tikhonov , Head of Lending
Bank : UkrSibbank
If the situation in the next year with the resources will not change - again in 2013 - mortgage rates will remain in the range of 18-20 % , terms and fees at such rates will not have priority. This is a very likely scenario .
Optimistic model - the allocation of public resources for mortgage lending costs 3-5 % per annum would be greatly enlivened the market.
Also state that kind of money in this market in the long term no one else will be able to invest .
Vladimir Radko , Head of alternative sales channels
Bank: Bank of Cyprus
I do not think that the advance has fallen below 20%. Own contribution of less than 20% makes the loan riskier . And now the banks are not interested in increasing the riskiness of the portfolio. Loan term of 25-30 years will also be a rarity.
Head of credit monitoring programs
I guess that in 2014 major changes on loans for real estate will be exclusively in the field of price - the market for many loan programs with a minimum initial contribution , there is also a set of proposals with a maximum term of loan up to 20 years. A program of mortgage lending in conjunction with the State Mortgage Institution maximum loan term is 30 years. It is unlikely that these proposals will be significantly adjusted .
Marina Revutska ,
Head of credit products
Bank : UniCredit Bank
Activation of the mortgage market could happen in the case of improving economic outlook and lower interest rates. As now existing mortgage rates remain relatively high for most borrowers Suchet unstable labor market, and the revitalization of the mortgage market too early . Based on the current situation and the level of interest rates , we do not expect significant changes in the situation in the mortgage market in the next year. As the experience of the previous periods , the most passive in the mortgage market months are January and February , July-August , September-December period , as a rule, characterized by bursts of activity . In addition, if, prior to the crisis, banks were willing to give credit to almost anyone who asked for it , now the eligibility requirements more stringent . In connection with this zero advances hardly have the right to " life" in 2014.
Regarding the length of the loan , the change in a positive way possible.
On the optimistic scenario can say the following . Recently there has been some recovery in the credit market and the growth of the retail loan portfolio of banks , but this was largely due to the wide banks offer consumer loans and loans in cash, while the share of the mortgage remains insignificant. Solvency of customers is gradually growing , but has not reached pre-crisis period. Necessary conditions that will contribute to the growth of the official minimum wage in Ukraine that will make it possible to predict the possibility of increasing the solvency of clients for mortgage lending . Also, if the SMI lower the rate for banks to 12%, then we can talk about the revitalization of the mortgage market in the future. Lending program SMI remains for most banks only instrument of mortgage financing .
Along with the development and growing popularity of Internet sales , banks will actively lure customers using online resources.
The most popular maximum term lending in both the primary and secondary markets today remains during 20 years, but there are banks that offer and 30th term lending. As for the advance , the largest number of credit offers in the secondary market was recorded with a minimum advance of 30 % of the loan , although in great demand among borrowers use the loans with an initial contribution in the range of 50% to 90 %, but the banks' proposals with no contribution a lot.
In 2014, advances and line has not changed significantly , the term will , as now, depend on the advance. Max will not advance more than 90% of the loan amount. Active financial institutions to issue mortgage loans will , when the cost of hryvnia deposits decline to 5-8 % per annum. This will create conditions for mass lending for the purchase of real estate. To activate the mortgage, the level of rates should fall to 12-14 % in local currency . Since the year 2014 is not expected little change in the economy towards growth , a significant decline rates are not expected to do, and the dynamics of mortgage issuance in 2013 will be similar to year.