Housing prices in the summer of 2010 will drop by half

08.12.2009 17:43
Analysts say the housing market, in 2010 in Ukraine the prices continue to fall, and a square meter in the capital will be available for a maximum of $ 1000.

According to experts, all the talk about the rise in price of apartments specifically fueled by brokers and bankers who are dreaming of that into their pockets once again pour the golden rain. "

Prices tumble

Deputy Head of Council of the Ukrainian Society of Appraisers Natalia Lebed told BB that realtors continue to artificially keep the cost of housing, to scare all the rise in price in the hope that citizens will hand over the nerves and they will rush to buy "cheap" property. However, the price of "homeless" does not correspond to real incomes, nor the economic situation in the country.

"This is not a normal situation today, when for 1m2 of Kiev" malosemeyki on the outskirts of asking $ 2100, - said Natalia Lebed. - Poor people do not have that kind of money, while the rich live in this apartment will not want to. "

The expert stressed that the world practice shows: the average price of real estate must not exceed the sum of the average salary for 10 years. Just so people can actually afford to buy housing, and sales will resume.

According to Goskomstat, for the first nine months of 2009, the average official salary in Kiev made 3108 grn. And throughout Ukraine - 1950 grn. Thus, the average cost of a one-room apartment in the capital (both primary and secondary markets) should be around 370 thousand UAH. ($ 46 thousand), and in the province - 230 thous. ($ 28,8 million).

Natalia Lebed believes that winter prices in dollar terms will fall another 10-15%, and summer will happen more serious collapse. According to experts, an apartment on the declared value of now, no one is buying, except for certain cases (for him realtors sites and make lime statistics). "Agencies advertise the sale of even non-existent objects to somehow revive the market", - said Natalia Lebed.

Banks simulate market activity

The sharp appreciation of square meters of pre-crisis provoked commercial financial institution. The fact that foreign loans are granted under the 6.8% annual rate in Ukraine is already reaching 30-35%.

At such a difference just from the air can get billions of dollars through a syndicated loan, when a foreign financial institution to raise money abroad, and give them a loan Ukrainian bank. Accordingly, the more expensive apartment, the more profit the lenders and receive, in turn, attract more resources from abroad.

Experts say that the bankers hired the firm estimates that each year an artificially inflated the value of collateral mortgage. Then the financial institution sent abroad documents showing rise in price of their mortgages, and could take another loan. As a result, housing became the bearer of collateral value for future loans, or simply - their hostage as a Ponzi scheme.

As a result, the price of housing artificially raised dozens of times. This continued until as long as the cost of apartments has not exceeded the purchasing power of creditworthy people. Now began a reverse process: the prices will fall as long as demand does not balance the proposal.

Citizens do not want to buy property for fabulous sum, the cost of housing is collapsing, and hence mortgage depreciate. As a result, if a person can not return the financial institution credit, he is forced to sell his pledge of cheaper cost and lose this much money. As a consequence, bank assets are formed hole in several billion, which can cover only gaining new loans from the government - under the refinancing.

However, bankers do not want to sell the mortgage on the real housing price, and have resorted to a trick: loans themselves. In the structure of every major financial institution is bound to have the holding in part that - a construction company. The Bank lends to its builders, and then redeems himself and raised their housing, to keep high prices in the market.

Financial analyst Alexei Luponosov: "One of the Ukrainian banks had built a huge housing complex on the beach in Sevastopol, and now his leadership purchased all the apartments for himself through nominees. This is done in order to create the impression of activity in the property market and maintain peak prices. "
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