Grim scenario: projections suggest the repetition of the crisis

12.01.2011 09:32
According to analytical studies of world famous company Ernst & Young, the most pessimistic scenario (estimated probability of -10%) is as follows. Intensification of the crisis of sovereign debt lead to the need for major restructuring of the public debt of peripheral countries in the Eurozone, which will ultimately trigger a full-blown financial crisis.

In this case, the next two years waiting for Eurozone GDP growth is negative at a very low level of -2% - -3%, which negates all the progress made to date progress on the economic recovery. If you described the crisis erupted in 2011, even as late as 2014 Eurozone GDP will haul approximately 3.5% pre-crisis level.

"The unpredictability of the economic situation in the euro area continues to complicate the process of planning for corporations. Pessimistic forecasts of GDP growth for many European countries, forcing companies to adhere to a conservative strategy in the planning of investments and activities of recruitment, "- said Mark Otty, managing partner of Ernst & Young regional EMEIA (Europe, Middle East, India and Africa).

"The eurozone is gradually cope with this crisis. But even under an optimistic scenario, the situation will be able to pull only the Nordic countries. The gap between north and south will inevitably increase. In addition, each new round of instability in financial markets increases the probability of a more gloomy scenario, "- commented Marie Diron, senior economic adviser to Ernst & Young.

"Due to the persistence of risk of falling economic indicators in the new year, growth will not be as impressive as in 2010. Given the current unstable situation in the field of public finance and the banking sector may further deterioration in the eurozone bond market. If the result happens defaulted on its debts, the eurozone are more likely to re-cover the recession ", - the expert believes.
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