Forecast the future of Ukraine: the fear and confusion are real prospects

06.12.2010 00:00
Clear designation of the vector of mode Yanukovych happened just before the 93rd anniversary of the October Revolution, which is deeply symbolic. Great-grandchildren of peasants, laundresses and revolutionary sailors at a heightened pace boost the dismantling of what their ancestors built in the Soviet state. Motive afterburner transition to the neoliberal model is clear - now exhausted all resources to enable the parasite to the Soviet legacy.

Local elections for all its seeming insignificance given the key to understanding the political situation in the country, give the authorities needed to implement its program keys. And what is this program and what are the consequences of its use - is written in this material. He gives an excellent prediction of the future of Ukraine.

The victory of the Party of Regions caught by hook and by crook in the local elections means a paradoxical thing. At that time, as the global crisis has led to a radical revision of neo-liberal policies, like the mainstream, which has a decisive influence on the development of mankind in 30 years in Ukraine after the victory of Yanukovych, he began to acquire pervasive features of the dominant ideology. Even if it is not clearly articulated by the authorities (by virtue of their intellectual squalor), it is actually realized in a number of system moves.

Nothing strange in this, because neo-liberal ideology was central to the ruling class since the inception of independent Ukraine. Former kompartiynye and Komsomol workers quickly took up the prescriptions of neo-liberal ideologues and economists in exchange for the legitimization of power by the West. To the west neo-liberalism has been an effective tool for "opening" previously closed markets to topstitch a 20-year crisis of capitalism.

However, we must recognize that in an independent Ukraine neoliberal reforms have always been half-hearted in nature, because no one possessed of absolute power. Even Kuchma, with its system of checks, balances, could not fully implement this policy, because I always balanced between public sentiments and needs of big business, which grew out of the Kuchma regime.

The arrival of Yushchenko`s not fundamentally changed the situation, even though Viktor Yushchenko became adept neoliberal ideology back in the 90`s. However, like Kuchma, Yushchenko had to consider public sentiment, as not having full power, he was forced to maneuver between the masses and the oligarchs.

With the victory of Yanukovych`s situation is fundamentally changed. New President reiterated many mistakes of his predecessor, but he managed to build a more or less workable vertical. Return Yanukovych`s presidential powers the Constitution of 1996 and local elections on October 31 said that in Ukraine there was an attempt to create a model of power with the maximum concentration of powers in one institution.

What does this mean?

I do not put in the material to reveal all the features of the new regime the benefit of this article represents the first of a series of reasoning about the situation in Ukraine. We only point out that an interest in the context of the anniversary of the October Revolution.

Clear designation of the vector of mode Yanukovych happened just before the 93rd anniversary of the October Revolution, which is deeply symbolic. Great-grandchildren of peasants, laundresses and revolutionary sailors at a heightened pace boost the dismantling of what their ancestors built in the Soviet state.

The increase in the workweek to 48 and in the future, even 60 hours, increasing the retirement age, total privatization, reform of the Labor Code, tax reform, we can continue ad infinitum. We see how our eyes builds a new system of government. All these measures are aimed at one thing - to return the instruments over-exploitation of the people, to drive him to his stall finally turn Ukraine into the European Nigeria - supplier of raw materials and potogonku European scale, where half-starved cheap labor to build a bright future of the Ukrainian oligarchs.

The motif of the transition to such a model is obvious - now exhausted all resources to enable the parasite to the Soviet legacy. Deterioration of infrastructure took total. Therefore, to receive surplus on the remains of Soviet metallurgy, chemistry, etc. virtually impossible, especially in light of the unfolding global economic depression, which, both domestic and Western media continue to shamefully "ignore".

In these circumstances, it is clear that the country needed a qualitatively different course, as all physical, economic, and spiritual reserves the de facto exhausted.

Clearly, the ruling class knows this, so try to find a way out.

What does it mean in this situation, the word "exit" in the understanding of the President and the forces that stand behind them:

1. retain power, and even better to strengthen it;
2. removed from the agenda of threats that may arise for this power;
3. to find and optimize resources in support of this government.

Since entering into the power of Yanukovych`s happened at the time of global economic crisis, he found himself in the dual situation. On the one hand, Ukraine today is a terribly unbalanced country, with all its consequences. On the other hand, as the guru of neoliberalism, Milton Friedman:

"Only a genuine crisis or imagined - lead to real change. When a crisis occurs, people`s actions depend on their performances. In this case, I believe, is our main function: to create an alternative to existing strategies, to maintain their viability and accessibility to as long as it is politically impossible becomes politically inevitable. "

Remember these words - crisis is forcing people to act based on their performances. Actions by the authorities today is a perfect illustration of this thesis.

Regionals are acting in the stereotypes that they have formed during the tough uncompromising struggle within the gang wars 90 - As power only respect power. Today for them is at stake is everything, so a key task - to break down political opponents, as will social groups whose interests are at odds with their interests. In fact, it happened in the local elections, which demonstrated the efficacy rate of Regions, in terms of realizing their goals. He will be enshrined in the elections to the parliament in 2011. Fortunately, the hasty statement of the need to move to a mixed system of elections to Parliament means that Bankova satisfied with the effectiveness of such an electoral system. Expand this thesis in more detail in a later article.

Now touch the second point of Friedman - to create an alternative to existing strategies, to maintain their viability and accessibility to as long as it is politically impossible becomes politically inevitable.

Neoliberal afterburner, which began in Ukraine, with the advent of Yanukovych`s entirely logical in the search for an exit. Frightened, broken, apathetic people, not forgotten the shock of the 90`s, today pineth away from the horror that will live through a second shock of the fall. This allows you to make an attempt to try and Yanukovych cementation regime under the guise of "tough measures to restore order", which primarily will be aimed at consolidating the ownership of these or other assets.

In this situation, any government actions through the media serves and will be submitted as a "little evil" needed to protect the common good. " However, very quickly the regime faced with internal conflicts, which are almost impossible to resolve in the framework established in the 90 years of coordinates "take away, confining, is enriched."

Local elections have recorded abnormally low voter turnout. Given the fraud can safely say that the elections come 30 to 40% of voters. In some cities, for example, in Zhitomir, mayors elected people who scored a maximum 10% of the total number of voters. Thus, we can safely say that the legitimacy of local authorities will be extremely low. In conditions of increasing "ninth wave" problems, it quickly becomes terribly low.

The same applies to the central government. Really, it`s ridiculous to look at the reports from the Crimea, or other basic electoral regions MDP, where brightly warn that the party (now propose to write exclusively with capital letters) scored between 50 and 80% (with mazhoritarschikami). In fact, all perfectly understand (especially those who led the field campaigns in the regions), which is now Regions have no more than 22-25% in the whole country and not more than 35% (well, 45% - even for a ceiling of Donbass) on base region. Trend Yanukovych`s close to trend Yushchenko sample of 2005. It is a reality that will determine the mood of the lower classes. Hence the conclusion - the legitimacy of the regime will fall, since the winter will fall dramatically.

In this situation, Yanukovych will have to rapidly increase the power components. Unlike Yushchenko, Yanukovych has always understood the importance of security forces and control them. Incidentally, another, by-form of strengthening the regime may be launching a new crime wave. Hiding behind it will be possible to deploy the argument "for the crackdown in the country. Indirect evidence of this is the sharp rise in the influence of criminal bosses in the regions. This is a very handy tool, because his hands can be removed, as all the discontented, without dirtying the state, and then get rid of the crime. All these mechanisms have been worked out yet in the 90`s.

In any case, an armada of police, Security Service etc. will need something to feed and, hence, whence it will need to borrow money. In fact, the real domestic sources of all three - print the hryvnia, take away the small and medium-sized businesses, the big capital.

All of these dead-end road.

1. Print hryvnia will lead to promotion of inflation and, perhaps, a hyperinflationary spiral (by the way, for big business a good way to throw off the debts). If money is printed at the specific economic development programs (eg, building a series of AN-148 for domestic airlines or modernization of the railway), then it would have a positive effect in the medium term. But watchful eyes of the IMF will follow closely to the real sector was sitting on a starvation diet, and Tigipko and to help you. Therefore, as in 2009, the money will go to social welfare payments and the financing of bank fraud. Result - inflation and rising prices for everything.
2. Through the tax code small and medium business quickly vyzhmut every penny. Poor, poor shopkeepers do not understand what was needed to unite before. Today, the initiative is not on their side, so they necessarily indicative of their slaughter. In addition, small and medium business is a nutritious base for political opponents, and therefore destroying this layer, you can try to solve the problem of the opposition as such. Simply put, if Stalin had donated the peasants to obtain resources for the Big Jerk and stabilize the Soviet regime, then the logic will inevitably push Yanukovych in the destruction layer of small and medium-sized businesses under one pretext or another. At the same time, the resources that will be received after the expropriation of "small fry" is not enough to cover social obligations. Plus, it is necessary to take into account that now need to somehow take care of the underclass of ex-middle managers, owners of cafes, vendors, etc., which will be on the social bottom.
3. And here comes the interesting part of our marlezonskogo ballet. Suddenly, on Bankova realize (or, more precisely, have already realized) that without the "expropriation expropriators regime did not resist. Fortunately, the experience of Vladimir Putin, who turned a cohort of Russian oligarchs in a submissive hired managers in parastatal corporations, stands before his eyes. The conclusion is - in search of a regime would be embroiled in a clash of part of the oligarchs. This confrontation is certain to be converted to the format of the game "the state establishes a fair procedure." The show will be a highly entertaining, especially when, after the absorption of "foreign" (incidentally, Volodymyr Boyko, ISD has "disbanded"), the Golem will devour "their". Well, the guys in the war - both in the war.

Summarizing. I intentionally left the inclusion of other material factors that would enable better form a picture of the processes and their projections for the future. Again, this is the first article in a series of the Ukraine. Oil painting, so consider this material as a seed.

Final abstracts are as follows:

1. Shock therapy returns to Ukraine as the only possible form solutions for moments of crisis the ruling class. Actions are defined by the elite worldview. The situation may still evolve in a fundamentally different way, which requires the ruling class making certain sacrifices in terms of their own interests. In fact, it requires a rise above the situation to get out to find adequate, challenges facing the country, decisions. Alas, all actions of the leadership of the country today are deployed in the usual post-Soviet discourse. Therefore, the key word nearest future Ukraine will be the word "shock" in those or other variations.
2. Window of opportunity to exit the situation by peaceful means constantly shrinking. This is facilitated by a permanent dismantling of the regulatory framework that leads to legal chaos. In these circumstances, the preponderance get players with more resources that solve their problems at the expense of the weaker. It continues to reduce the regime`s legitimacy in the eyes of the masses that have demonstrated local elections.
3. Apathy and the increasing hostility of the masses need to be addressed, which the ruling class is in the form of escalation of force components. The growing influence of law enforcers will be a key trend in the near future. However, as Napoleon said, the power of standing on their bayonets long downtime. The absence of ideology, understood and accepted by the masses, becomes the fifth ahilessovoy regime. PR-action have ceased to act as containment of the masses of discontent. In this regard, the defeat of Tymoshenko was an impressive lesson which was not metabolized by the Regions.
4. Petty and middle bourgeoisie living out its last few months (maximum of a year and a half) and subject to inevitable destruction, as hostile to the current political regime layer. Therefore, the shopkeepers will be rushing to find a charismatic leader who would save them from imminent collapse
5. Almost inevitable conflict between the state and the oligarchs, which creates a field of possibilities for the union stump oligarchs with the petty and middle bourgeoisie and the underclass layers.
6. This implies the rapid formation of a classical revolutionary situation `upper classes can not - do not want the lower classes. " Political regime today with their own hands an infrastructure revolution in Ukraine, which is trying to prevent by strengthening security forces. However, the fundamental difference from the situation today, say the early 90`s is the presence of several factors:
* Formed a class of small, medium and large owners who have tasted all the fruits of "independent living". Not all of them will flee abroad, not all will sit in jail for debt, not all sink to the bottom of the social. By and large, they pose a dilemma - or die, or fight for their lives and property.
* Complete exhaustion of Soviet life, using which, one could reduce the degree of social attitudes. Dismantling the system of education, medicine, social protection, etc. leaves the regime of any extenuating "pads" in its relations with the masses of underclass. Fundamentally different resources in Ukraine does not exist.
* The global crisis is a factor that is objectively permanent constricts the space for the political regime of Yanukovych. Simply put, to live on credit will be harder, not to mention the fact that loans from the IMF to give.

So, Rubicon finally on October 31, when they were clearly identified tools and motivation of the ruling elite. Today the question is not whether - or may not be the revolution in Ukraine, but when and in what form it will begin.

On this, perhaps, for now. In the following text, we take a closer look at the consequences of local elections for the political system of Ukraine, the prospects for the old and the new opposition.
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