In the current quarter at the beginning of IV. 2010 on the Ukrainian real estate market situation, most analysts and consultants still refrain from specific advice for developers, builders and other real estate players. In turn, Eleanor Miller, head of international real estate advisory company providing professional advisory services to Ernst & Young yet responded to the painful question: is your advice to developers and landowners?
A few tips for developers:
In a fairly complicated situation, which currently has developed on our real estate market, it is very difficult and sometimes impossible to give specific advice leading market players - both property developers and large zemelevladeltsam. After all, each case must be considered separately and in each case the tips may be completely polar. However, a number of general market trends and features of our behavior and way of thinking can still draw some conclusions that can be summarized as follows.
Need to restrain "appetites." If we are talking about the developer, the first thing they need some "curb their appetites." To begin with, completely redefine the conceptual components of their projects. Totally unrealistic architectural concepts of skyscrapers and megazdany against an inactive market and minimal demand now looks, at least, absurd. Of course, overheated, and at the same time, the vacant market, as it was two or three years ago, forgive any mistakes and shortcomings. The market absorbed all.
Should be commensurate with the possibilities of desire. Now, however, must be weighed against the desire with real opportunities of the market to absorb all of these areas. In some cases, may require a complete revision of the project and the fundamental change in the predominant type of real estate. Good market research, and possibly testing the concept (preliminary negotiations with potential tenants) give a fairly sober view of how demand and, consequently, can be a successful development project after its implementation.
The next step will be to reduce their financial expectations. Pre-crisis rate of return will not be achievable for at least the next few years. Therefore it is necessary initially to review all the financial indicators of the project (this also applies to rental rates, and cost of sales), as well as reduce their future investment expectations.
Thus, at least an architectural and financial part of the project will look more realistic. All we certainly understand that having a good development project does not guarantee the attraction of financing in the current ambiguous situation, but ... Banks are now sufficiently liquid, and some investors are still willing to enter into Ukraine. Therefore, under certain conditions, the potential exists for the project on time and according to debt capital.
Some advice to landowners:
If we are talking about the landowners, the future strategy will depend on the initial goals, which put players in front of the land roar. In most cases the goals were purely speculative - with a quick entrance and exit from the project in the short term - so in the current situation can not hope for a successful sale of vacant land. The cost of land will not be so high, and in the best case, the site can be sold with zero earnings, and most likely selling price will be much lower than buying. Therefore, there is already everything will depend on the willingness and the financial situation of the landowner - or get rid of this asset at a significant discount now, or wait for better market conditions. However, the wait would be long. In the long run, good land assets will have a better chance of being implemented and the demand in our market.