Egypt: what will happen to property prices

02.02.2011 14:06
 Holiday country has always been a dream for grown up in a cold climate Russians. No exception, and Egypt, are now covered by the flames of internal political conflicts.

In the analytical report "Russian occupation of Hurghada: low prices, tax breaks, mild climate, season, year round, provided the magazine www.Metrinfo.Ru international real estate agency Gordon Rock and developed jointly with MYREDSEA GROUP - Egyptian Investment and construction company, in 2009 , Russians are the leaders among foreign buyers of property in Egypt. Their share (as well as citizens of CIS) accounted for 45% of transactions on the British - 35%, for the Germans, Italians and Scandinavians - 20%. However, until 2006, the British accounted for 80% of foreign buyers of the Egyptian real estate experts say the analytical center "Real Estate Market Indicators."

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According to the SVR Group, during 2005-2008. Egypt has consistently 7, 6 and 5, among other countries on demand for overseas property among Russians. And the end of 2009, Egypt came in third place on this indicator, second only to Bulgaria and Montenegro. However, studies conducted by Gordon Rock, differ markedly. Analysts do not deny the growing demand for real estate Egypt, but state that the country was 8 in 2009 and in 2008 - 10. But in any case, no matter how different figures, Egypt is popular among Russians - no one will deny.

Political upheavals

Political instability, and yes even conjugate crowd, always a bad influence on the investment climate, including the cost of real estate. However, in the eyes of the experts of the case of Egypt is not so bad. International rating agency Standard & Poor's downgraded the long-term ratings on Egypt's foreign currency obligations to «BB» to «BB +», the national currency - to «BB +» to «BBB-», according to a press release from the agency.

The ratings placed on CreditWatch with possible further downgrade. "The rating actions reflect our expectation that the protests, which began in Egypt, will continue, despite the appointment of Vice-President and the dissolution of the Government of President Hosni Mubarak on Jan. 29," - said a credit analyst at S & P Kai Shtukerbrok.

"We expect that the political instability in the country affect economic growth in Egypt in 2011 and beyond, including due to the negative impact on the important tourism sector," - said in a press release from S & P.

On the eve of Moody's Investors Service lowered the ratings of Egypt's sovereign debt to "Ba1" to "Ba2" and changed the ratings outlook from "stable" to "negative."

Popular uprising

The Egyptian government resigned during the unrest in the country, but President Hosni Mubarak remains its head. Victims were more than 150 people from prisons run thousands of prisoners, made the evacuation of foreign nationals

The Government of Egypt on Saturday resigned, but the dismissal of permanent in the past 30 years, President Hosni Mubarak has not happened. February 1 in a televised address to the citizens, he promised that the last months of his presidency to devote to the preparation of a peaceful transfer of power. According to Mubarak, he does not intend to stand for presidential elections in September 2011, however, to retire before that date, he has no plans.

Market situation

Any instability for the real estate market - a bad omen. But is it worth to arrange a panic? Yes, there are problems, but they are through the foreseeable future must be decided. What is Egypt? This is not Afghanistan, where wars are the third century in a row, not the other traditional "hot spot", not Iraq or Iran, not Palestine, not Lebanon.

Speak now about the fall in property prices is meaningless, say experts think tank "Real Estate Market Indicators." Such developments not only lead to some changes in property value as a temporary complete cessation of transactions. In coming weeks, nothing will be impossible to sell (and buy): this is due to the questionable legitimacy of legal and governmental structures to register the transaction (even if they continue to work).

When the situation stabilizes - whether it is in the near future or just after the September elections - real estate prices are likely to return approximately to its previous level, says the head of the analytical center "Indicators of Real Estate Market Oleg Repchenko. Important role in this played by the factor that prices are generally not too different from the construction costs. This is not Moscow, where the price of an object can exceed the cost of 5-20 times.

Secondary market development situation and will result in no reduction in price, but rather to the reduction in liquidity. In the near future will not be able to sell anything at any price, while prices of normalcy quickly catch up to the pre-revolutionary level.

The change of government, cabinet ministers should not become a long-term instability. Who would result in either stood at the helm, will not be interested in undermining one of the key economic sectors - tourism. Hence, special attention will be given to the conservation estate and other infrastructure in the country. Mainly covered the capital of strife, and resort areas are located in relative peace. This resembles the situation in the Soviet Union in 1993, when Moscow rattled not only the shots, but shots of the tank, and even in St. Petersburg, not to mention other regions, all the people continued to work as usual.

If for some reason, the instability continues, it is again a problem for the real estate market will not price level and liquidity crisis. Simply did not sell out.


If volatility is over quickly, then a few months she has already forgotten, and the next summer, not only house prices but also on the tourist places are restored. If drags on - no discounts and price reductions will not allow the real estate market to recover.

But Egypt - is not only the pyramids and ancient history, it is also the Suez Canal. One of the world's key transportation arteries, through which the world market comes oil - a modern blood of civilization. As the poet wrote, "blood is not more expensive than oil, and oil is needed desperately." Do the same as Saudi Arabia does not discern for themselves a threat to national security, and the U.S. related to the contract to ensure it will not see a reason to intervene if the riots continue?

However, many historical sites are closed and are under military guard - in particular, the Pyramids of Giza. But the open resorts located on the Red Sea, which is most often visited by tourists from Europe, including Russia. About 24 000 Russians are on the Red Sea resorts - mostly in the cities of Sharm el-Sheikh and Hurghada.

European countries warn their citizens against traveling to Egypt. The Russian Union of Travel Industry reports that from January 29 tour operators inform tourists about the real situation in Egypt under the signature. But the tourist himself will decide whether or not he will go on holiday in this country. Press Secretary PCT Irina Tyurina, Interfax reports that, according to tour operators, airports on all resorts are functioning normally. "Planes arriving and departing, including foreign ones. The situation generally calm. Wishing to return home immediately no ", - said Turina.

On the other hand, as reported by Petroleum Information Agency (ANI), the press service of Lukoil, the company evacuated from Cairo Russian employees. "Russian officials Cairo office of Lukoil and their family members, only 15 people were evacuated Sunday from Cairo to Dubai, [then they will fly] in Moscow", - explained in the oil giant. In Egypt, LUKOIL is implementing two projects: WEEM and Meleiha. The first draft of the company owns 50%. Proved reserves of the block is about 31 million barrels of oil. Other parties to the concession agreement is an Egyptian State Petroleum Corporation (EGPC) and the Government of the Arab Republic of Egypt.

Riots in Egypt led several major international oil companies operating in the country, to suspend operations, reported Bloomberg. Norway's Statoil on Monday stopped drilling in the area of El-Daban mountain range in the west of the Nile Delta, which began in October last year, together with the Transocean. "Because of the uncertainty associated with the current situation in Egypt, and how long this situation will persist, we have decided to reduce operations in the country to a minimum," - said the representative of Statoil Glad Pedersen. Royal Dutch Shell has closed an office in Cairo and began evacuating staff from the country.

BP, which is the largest foreign investor in Egypt, announced the evacuation of staff from the country. These circumstances can impact very negatively on the economy, primarily because Egypt has the third-largest gas reserves in Africa and the sixth largest reserves of oil, analysts remind
Content tags: Overseas property
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