Developers have taken a timeout

04.10.2010 20:10
Today, many home buyers and sellers are trying to predict how the mayor's resignation will affect the capital market real estate. Experts' opinions were divided: some are predicting growth in apartment prices and the lack of new buildings, others are saying about the possible reduction of the cost of "squares".

Since the mid 2000's in Moscow annually sell about 2.5 million square meters. m of commercial apartments (excluding sotszhilya), and the price meter grew in proportion to the dynamics of oil prices. In 2008 the crisis came, and from 2.5 million built "squares" has sold 1.6 million That is, until September 2008 apartments were sold, as before, to 200 thousand square meters. m per month, and since September 2008 - almost did not sell.

In 2009, the builders managed to finish the still about 2,3 million square meters. m, plus the market was still 900 thousand "squares", unsold in 2008. Simultaneously, demand declined sharply. As a result, the market for the first time in many years there was oversupply. Actual sales prices of new buildings have collapsed to 90 thousand rubles. But the apartment still nobody bought: for the whole year it sold about 900 thousand square meters. m

In 2010, the housing market remains a buyer's market: apartments will be built only 250 thousand square meters. m, but the market remains about 2 million "squares" are not sold in 2008-2009. If we assume that demand will grow by 15-20%, then the capital will be sold around 1.1 million square meters. m, and about 1,4 million square meters. m will remain for 2011. That is why the level of economically justified prices are unlikely to rise until the end of the year higher than 100-110 rubles per 1 sq. km. m. And what will happen next?

Conclusions Some experts are not too comforting for those who would like to buy a new apartment in Moscow. According to analyst Investkafe Anastasia Pine, prices for new buildings for two years may grow sharply.

According to her, after the resignation of the mayor while officials sorted out in the changing conjuncture, it may take several months. And all this time will be agreed upon only those construction site where everything is in order with the documents - that is, no.

"Even if we consider an optimistic scenario in which officials in the second half of 2010 will give green light to half of all Moscow buildings, housing deficit in 2011 will be about 500 thousand square meters. m (20% market share), and in 2012 - about 2 million square meters. m (80% market share), as the construction cycle in the panel housing lasts about two years. In this situation, rising prices could amount to about 20% in 2011 and a minimum of 50% in 2012 "- the analyst believes.

From this point of view, agree and head of the Analytical Center GdeEtotDom.Ru Alexander Pypin: "The officials agreed that the builders are gone, but on their new change will arrive, with their interests, relationships, queries, and a protgé.

However, not the fact that the construction market in Moscow will face a serious re-division, but a timeout on the legalization of previous agreements and linkages with the new team of officials just have to take. As a result, inhibited by six months in the construction process will lead to a temporary reduction in supply and higher prices in the market of new buildings. "

Some analysts believe that the end of the year on the Moscow market of new buildings should not expect dramatic changes. "Since all the current projects are long term, - said Vladimir Kashirtsev, director of business development at ABC Housing" - a sharp jump in prices is unlikely to metropolitan apartment. In the short term they are likely to grow at a monthly rate of inflation: on 0,5-1%.

In the long term, there are two scenarios. If the price of admission to the building plots remain high, then prices will rise to the level of inflation. If the construction market in Moscow will open for other developers, will create favorable conditions for development of former industrial areas, the increase in prices at the time could stop. "
Content tags: Housing Apartment
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