Year ends, which, probably, without exception, market participants will be called first difficult, and only then - interesting, turning, or full of surprises. In any case, the changes he brought to the market, large, and sometimes even dramatically. Let's see how things have changed for the year the situation in the country market.
And she changed, I must say, if not beyond recognition, it is very important. For simplicity, the perception of "owner" decided to compile a list of major changes, with which the market arrives by 2010.
Change the first. In the structure of the sentence strongly increased the share of economy-class townships. Who would have thought that the cause of the "boom towns economy class" of which a few years ago, market experts speculated as a possible or impossible, will the financial crisis? One way or another, but the dominant segment of the steel market is cheap settlements, especially changing "sagging" due to its lack of demand (and often - totally unreasonable value for money, what crisis buyer does not forgive) the business class.
"At present the proposal to suburban real estate market of Moscow region is characterized by an increase in the share of economy-class townships due to the active release of new projects - says Maria Shagurin, a partner of the New cottages. - A new type of offer is characterized by a low price while maintaining high quality houses that meet the requirements of buyers of business class, which is currently a considerable mass moved in the midrange. "
Change the second. "Product of the Year" can surely be called plots without a contract. Before the crisis, says Vladimir Yakhontov, managing partner at MIEL - Residential Real Estate, the sites there was virtually no market, but within a year the product became a mass (40% of total transactions). Assessment of Mary Shagurin such settlements on the distance over 50 km from Moscow offered now about 100, and 69 of them can be roughly classified segment distant cottages.
One of the related trends - the fact that the plots without a contract are often advertised as being "in an orderly settlement" (imagination paints almost entirely built up into a single concept of the village, where not only have no problems with communications and protection, but that's about to open a private school) , moreover, that in reality, communication may well not be. And he "organized by the village" - exist only in draft, dated at the latest, 2008.
"In current market conditions, selling plots without a contract was for developers a" lifeline "- explains Maria Litinetskaya, CEO of Blackwood. - Leaving a large number of projects offering to sell plots without a contract, on the one hand, carries downside risks to the quality characteristics for sale of real estate. But on the other hand, promotes the development of the economy segment, which had previously been less in demand by developers / builders, in this connection was formed short supply at this level. "
This product is satisfied customers, despite the fact that the timing of construction (completion of the settlement) is much longer, "says Vladimir Yakhontov:" However, there is a danger that some developers are selling plots without a contract (eg 40%), can not fulfill their obligations to buyers: to communication, to pave the roads and so on. " In addition, one must understand that in some cases, "much more" can be stretched and on for decades. That means years and years of continuing construction projects, repairs, truck with construction debris, etc.
Change the third. Logically associated with the second: the pace of construction of settlements in general have declined significantly. By the way, a substantial part of the plots without a contract to buy yourself builders. "This suggests that rural property, including land becomes interesting for investors that I would consider a good sign," - glad Yuri Sorokin, vice president of group of companies "Partners of the Earth."
This fact, on the one hand, adds a little hope for ordering construction. On the other - to expect that company to build it quickly, not worth it. "If earlier was the main principle - to build and sell as quickly as possible, but now any developer development is very calm pace - said Nadezhda VOLOKHOVA, deputy director of the agency exclusive property" Manor ". - Compared with last year, the pace of construction dropped by 3-4 times, financial flows have become much smaller. And if before we were told that due date of a large object is about five years, but now the prospects are unclear.
Changing the fourth. Prices. They changed throughout the year to the downside. Unfortunately for buyers, with a certain point started to decrease and the size of discounts offered by vendors. Upset early: on many sites discount simply "out of the shadows." As Maria says Litinetskaya, the main trend of the summer of 2009 was, first, the formal reduction by many developers value of real estate in the price lists, and secondly, the granting of discounts began to speak more openly. So the discount of 50% last winter and 10% are not necessarily differ from each other by a finite sum, which will have to pay for this or that object.
"Crisis adjusted prices across the board. And there is no pronounced dependence on the direction. Significantly affected Dmitrovskoe, despite the fact that it is a popular and environmentally friendly route, and a full general entertainment infrastructure. But the price, which was requested there for villages at high water, was a tall. There, we noted a serious correction. On the other tracks fall flat ", - says Nadezhda VOLOKHOVA.
Reducing the cost of suburban residential real estate market for the year of the crisis amounted to an average of 30%, shares his calculations Maria Litinetskaya: "At the moment the market is in a state of relative equilibrium, so in early 2010 in the absence of new turmoil in global financial markets, price fluctuations in suburban residential property will be minimal. Price correction downwards will take place only in cases of non-liquid proposals. "
There are instances when sellers raise their prices relative to the summer - in September 2009, but the real bargains on the "high" prices and virtually no hope VOLOKHOVA adds.
Change the fifth. Complex and long-term, in other words, the forecast for 2010. Classic crisis forecast gives Maria Shagurin: "Everything depends on the overall economic situation in the country. Accurate prediction can not give one. " Yuri Sorokin says about the same thing: "So far, buyers have a certain uncertainty in the context of current economic realities. And yet many citizens who financially and psychologically, would be willing to commit large purchases. Market development in 2010 in its pure form will depend on the situation in the Russian consumer market as a whole. If the economy is no longer going to happen to force majeure, stable employment situation and income, we can expect the consumer boom in retail land. "
Optimistic in their view to the future Vladimir Yakhontov: "In 2010, all indicators will tend upwards. 2010 - The Year "with a plus", the beginning year of the crisis. " According to the expert, by the spring of 2010 we expect prices started rising in the country market. However, it is obvious realtor point of view: in fact, clear prerequisite to serious growth are not observed. Likely positive scenario - a stabilization of prices and demand for land and home economy class.