Moscow Association of Realtors / IDA / the curtain of the summer brought together leading analysts of the real estate market. Experts engaged in his favorite activity - assessed the results of the last two years of crisis, and then gently gave predictions for the future of Russian real estate market.
In general, experts agreed that in the near future / predictions from 3 months to 3 years old / market will not undergo a global change, if not going to happen next macroeconomic disaster. What exactly will affect the housing market? In general, the Russian reality, experts say.
According to Professor of Economics and management of urban construction "of the Russian Academy of Economics. Gennady Plekhanov Sternik, the primary market for Russian real estate and secondary behave differently. In the primary market, the crisis continues. Nevertheless, according to vice-president of the Russian Guild of realtors, general director of real estate agency "Savva" Constantine Apreleva, planted problematic real estate will not have a global influence, even if placed on the market. According to experts, it is not more than about 1.5 percent of housing. Much greater influence will be released by the housing developers to resolve issues.
Analysts noted that the relatively high price level for new buildings in comparison with the secondary housing market is due to just small amounts of construction that we are witnessing the last two years. At the same time income with some growth in Moscow globally has not increased in the regions of Russia. Bought that property, where the developer proposed an adequate market price, summed up the head of the analytical center IRN.RU Oleg Repchenko, citing the Moscow district Marfino and some other "dots" mass building.
Builders were forced to change the strategy of relations with clients, as well as the approach to layouts. So according to the head of consulting and analytics company ABC housing "Artem Rzhavsky, during the crisis the average apartment lost 5 sq m of total area. A. Rzhavsky also noted that now the 3 / 4 of purchases are made in the Moscow region at the expense of affordability.
Repchenko also noted that the developers are back from the speculative function of its true - to build housing. But now we must build not only a lot, but qualitatively, in particular, the build up area infranstrukturoy.
According to K. Apreleva, today the main pre-crisis trend of "buy today - tomorrow will be more expensive" does not work anymore. Now developers have to change the business strategy and mechanisms for construction. Since the building has a longer cycle than some other types of business, now must have a "fallback" in case of imposing a tax on real estate, whose adoption can take place in 2012, According to K. Apreleva, talk about it now affects on the market. If the tax is adopted, the price trend in the housing market will decline.
Analysts also noted the increasing role of government in the housing market: it is lowering mortgage rates and the trend for mass construction. "It is possible to reduce interest rates on mortgage loans up to 6-8 percent," said the head of the analytical agency RWAY Alexander specks. Nevertheless, G. Sternik warned that the sharp decline in mortgage rates could adversely affect the housing market. Rates will decline, the demand that naturally grow. Only the question remains: under what forms this demand while reducing the volume of construction?
As noted by Krapina, 55 and from 83 Russian regions, the total cost of construction of housing for newly started projects have less than 30 thousand rubles per sq. m. Only in 5 regions / including capital / total cost of housing exceeds the recommended value of the federal government. In the opinion of Krapina in post-crisis period, the market becomes more balanced, especially in the middle of the market value of the objects and the average earnings of its subjects. Ruble prices in the housing market will decline compared to the pre-crisis at 50-60 percent of the maximum values. Business activity will increase by 2-3 times, predicts analyst. "Will quickly restore the volume of new construction that, in fact, we can already see the example of the Moscow region. Construction will be carried out mainly by the complex development of territories and the mass construction of individual pre-fabricated housing. It also reduced the cost of services of natural monopolies for the developers," he said.
Oleg Repchenko noticed that along with the performance of the fund RZHS in turn involved a huge amount of land. "If you earn the proposed regulations of land allocation in the public interest", then the "sauce" implementation natsprogrammy "Affordable Housing" a lot of unused land can be quickly allocated for housing. Adds market instability and crisis in the revival of the frozen projects primarily is at the stage of "paper ready".
With regard to the secondary market, at the moment he "radiates optimism and up to 2010, show more sales than in 2009, I am sure Gennady Sternik. Fears of realtors that they can not earn a rise in prices should dissipate as the income can be obtained not only in the speculative growth, but on the contrary, repeated the well-known, but forgotten truth realtors G. Sternik.
In his view, the market lives on the principle of the Latin letter "L". Two years ago we saw a sharp drop in prices and turnover of business, but now the market before the end of the year and first quarter of 2011, waiting for "the vibrational stability," or, as analysts say, the sideways trend with high volatility. " Simply put, the price will then rise, then fall, with the result that gives an almost "zero growth". He also noted a relatively easy exit from the crisis in Moscow due to the fact that in 2009 the average for the Russian Federation, in St. Petersburg and Moscow areas of growth of nominal incomes were not, but in Moscow, revenues grew by 23 percent to 44.46 thousand rub. "That's why the housing market in Moscow at the end of 2009 felt positive changes, and the market in many regions have not yet felt," said G. Sternik.
According to the Office Rosreestra in Moscow as early as 1 half of 2010 the volume of transactions was 40,100 against 22,800 for the same period last year / gains 76 percent / ie reached a crisis level.
"No price increases will not," - said Sternik pogrustnevshim several realtors. In his view, the fluctuations in the ruble prices will be within + / - 5 percent with a possible increase by the end of the year for no more than 5 percent, dollorovogo equivalent prices - ranging from 5 percent to -10 percent.
Oleg Repchenko also confident that the market will be subject to frequent price fluctuations. So, after 2-3 years the cost of housing may be about the same as now.
He also believes that realtors should not despair at the lack of price increases. On the contrary, now it will be easier to build long chains of alternative transactions that are already being observed in practice. The sharp jump in demand, which could be observed this year, is associated with pent-up demand of alternative multi-pass deals. "And these transactions will suffice for several years," confident O. Repchenko. In the next two years can expect more growth in the volume of transactions, but not at the prices, said an analyst.
He pointed out the futility of parallels with the crisis of 1998, which is carried out to simulate the way out. Price of 1 sq. m of housing in 1998 in the Moscow market was about 800 dollars, at Moscow - $ 400 Now prices, such as for the market with huge turnovers. In other words, the market is especially no place to grow.
According to the head of the Analytical Center Corporation Incom Dmitry Taganova, suburban real estate market, too, is unlikely to change until the end of the year. Taganov reported on the following paradox, which could be seen in the last few months and which will continue its trend has for some time. If we assume the average price for the country market, it is invariably reduced. The prices for items in the constructed settlements or high degree of readiness increased. This paradox stems from the fact that the market continues to do a huge number of plots without a contract. That they "retard" the average price.
In the market of Moscow region town real estate, selling at least one object is presented in 600 x townships. In the first half of 2010, entered the market about 50 villages, ie the same as for the entire 2009 in the first half of the market has been presented about 40 thousand objects, of which: 18 thousand houses / 46 percent / 16 thousand plots without a contract / 40 percent / 5 thousand apartments in townhouses / 13 percent /, 0.5 percent of apartments in low-rise houses / 1 percent. The average price of the property - about 12 million rubles. During the crisis, a decline of 52 percent due to growth in the share of settlements without a contract: almost 50 percent, rising to 4 times.
Decline in sales to suburban real estate market due to the fact that this is the second house, which is regarded by the buyer as a luxury item. On the one hand, plots without a contract it possible for developers to survive: they are dumped on the market an adequate supply buyers' requests. On the other hand, the market retraced back.
Currently, the market is relatively stable. This situation will last until the end of the year, said D. Taganov. Due to the seasonal factor can be a spike in the fall. Also, the situation will continue to yield plots without a contract, in which case the share of expensive segment will decline. An important factor remains the degree of readiness of the village. Overall, the suburban real estate market will follow the general trends of the real estate market. In this context of rapid change in the near future should be expected. Taganov expects a smooth process of revitalizing the market, together with the release of the economic crisis.
Nevertheless, buying an apartment is still profitable for the buyer, since most often it is seen as pension savings and leasing provides a steady income - 4 percent per annum.
If we consider that banks continue to cut rates on deposits, realtors and builders have a good perspective - people will transfer the money into real estate.
According to K. Apreleva, prices will never return to pre-crisis level - of speculation can be no question.
Despite the fact that analysts are especially encouraged to look closely at the problems of the domestic market, they do not forget to look around and abroad. Data on the U.S. market was worse than expected international investors, so there is hope that as soon as they arise interest in Russian business and Russian real estate, with optimism, they have summarized.