Investment in housing benefit, but the Russians have on them is clearly not enough money.
These real estate professionals indicate that investments in real estate in the eyes of most Russians remain one of the most attractive ways of investment. Especially given the volatility in global financial markets and currency fluctuations.
But the times when buying an apartment under construction could earn 100% a year seem to be gone. This year, prices rose, according to various estimates, only 6-9%. Nevertheless, real estate, although in the long term remains an attractive investment instrument. She had only one serious drawback: it requires too much initial capital.
Patience and VIP
We all have acquaintances, friends or even relatives, who at one time successfully bought an apartment, and then sold it much more expensive. The idea to follow their example certainly occurred to anyone. And the fact that these stories tend to be associated with a number of favorable circumstances, besides, have at least 3 or 4-year statute of limitations, especially as long as no one confused.
However, experts advise patience. With the dream of that for two or three years to triple its investments must, of course, to say goodbye. The following year, the most likely scenario sees the rise in prices at the level of inflation plus a few percent. Preliminary projections for the growth of property prices by 2011 reduced to an average of 10%.
More active growth of prices in this market is not likely before 2012. Even the traditional leader in profitability among residential real estate - new construction segment of the city - two or three years could bring income now only 30-40%. A lot, but this figure is comparable with the yield of other investment instruments. For example, gold is also predicting a 30% rise in the next two years. According to preliminary forecasts of analysts, and the stock market, and hence the shares of mutual funds, next year could rise by an average of 30%.
The second council, which experts give investors - to invest in expensive real estate: houses and apartments business and premium class. The benefit of the proposal are: the capital of such housing is about 50% of the total number of apartments offered for sale.
However, as far as real estate attracts people who dream of a safe investment of money, so it remains inaccessible for the vast majority. To buy an apartment and earn on its resale, the required sum, which is freely available for most Russians simply do not. And mortgage rates are now such that eat up all the profit potential. What to say about the premium housing ... Buy it can afford only a handful of potential investors.
Arguments about the investment attractiveness of real estate continues to have no relation to the majority of Russians. The gap between housing prices and income compatriots remains extremely high. According to experts, Russia is among five states (along with Morocco, Pakistan, Montenegro and Belarus) in which to purchase housing to local residents the hardest.
The average annual income of a Russian family in euros is 11.6 thousand and the average value of residential property is estimated at 33.2 thousand. You can resort to using a mortgage, but at the current average rate of 14-15% per annum apartments should grow in value much faster than now.
Buyers do not have enough ...
How to tell the correspondent "MK" in one of the largest national realtor agencies, the crisis has forced consumers to seek cheaper offerings. "We see that those who before the crisis could have bought a business class, now have lost this opportunity and agree on the Economy", - the interlocutor of "MK". In fact, at the very low-cost housing - one-room apartments in economy-class housing stock - is now the lion's share of all transactions.
Second place is occupied by the demand for economy-bedroom apartments, to lead in sales before the crisis. Two-bedroom apartments currently do not buy more than 8% of the total number of buyers. Share of home buying business class, according to realtors, this year will not exceed 10% of the total number of transactions. Most houses in the price range from 2.5 to 5 million rubles. Apartments economy-more 6 million rubles get only 5% of the buyers.
Overall, in 2010 the number of apartments for sale has grown, it is estimated realtor, 30%, while demand fell by 25%. "The main problem is obvious: a lack of sufficient in order to move the market place, the number of paying customers", - concluded the expert. According to him, all the observed market demand for apartments and offices - is the demand for use and not for investment. "
... But the prices will not fall
Theoretically push Russian real estate market to a more active sales growth would fall in prices for apartments and houses. But mostly, experts recognize that housing prices have already fallen quite significantly, up to 30%. However, only in the sectors around which before the crisis hype was not observed. Experts say that in some segments of the real cost of housing closer to his cost. Fall lower than now, with property prices in Russia is simply no reason.
Market rules by which reduced demand should lead to a decline in prices, in this case does not work. The reasons for this are many. First of all it is worth noting that the construction market is slowly recovering from the crisis, and borrowed financial resources for developers are very expensive. In this case, used in Russia is largely outdated, and therefore costly methods of construction of houses that do not help reduce the cost of housing.
Some experts, however, warn of possible new turn reduce the cost of housing. However, it is rather a possible result of implementation of the most pessimistic forecast for the entire Russian economy. In other words: it will be bad economics - will be cheaper housing. However, in the case of global economic turmoil to buy it, so even with the investment objectives will be to no one.
The reverse side of real estate
Actually, the situation in which the income of most Russians do not allow them to buy a home, even for myself, but not that for a living, most of all and spoil the image of real estate as an investment tool. This factor does not run on prices and thus increases the risks of long-term investors. The embedding of its own funds in real estate and so low-risk can not be called. Of this, some experts conclude: hardly real estate, which the first three quarters of the year included along with the PIFS and bonds in the most attractive investment tools will be just as popular next year.
Stagnation in the market has already begun to emerge. Offers of apartments is becoming more and sold all of them longer, literally zastaivayas awaiting new owners. About stagnation reflected in the fact that the largest price increase observed for the more expensive housing, as well as the apartments large "room", and more liquid segments of the already exhausted their possibilities. Out of stagnation in the market closer to next spring, promises to experts. In this case, excessive demand for property, no one expects: the prices will gradually grow up and significant changes in the balance of "demand-offer" is not expected.
Another negative factor is the issue of taxation of real estate. Recall that the government intends to tie property taxes to the real cost of housing.
A single tax on real estate in Russia was supposed to enter from the beginning of 2011. They planned to replace the currently levied on individuals of land and property taxes. The idea is to more expensive housing levy higher taxes, and economy-class housing - lower. For introducing such a system will have a single registry of immovable property. Experts have repeatedly expressed concerns that in practice it will lead to a tax increase. True, the ministry disagreed.
According to the head office of Elvira Nabiullina on taxpayers living in economy class, it's definitely not affected. According to the minister, "the single tax will promote fair taxation based on market value of the property." However, recently the Deputy Finance Minister Sergei Shatalov said that in 2011 the changes will not be as many technical issues in this way are not solved yet.