What will happen to the property in 2011?

11.01.2011 13:58
Real Estate Market Analysis | What will happen to the property in 2011? In 2010, the apartments fell by 5-15%. Most likely, in 2011, prices will continue to decline.

Forecasts of market participants, announced in early 2010, were justified - perhaps the first time in five years. Year Nazal realtors forecast for the next 12 months, price fluctuations within the plus-minus 10%.

Related article: The crisis will end when the more expensive real estate

Indeed, while sellers have repeatedly tried to raise prices, the lack of demand deploy them down. In this case, the buyers have always had the opportunity to bargain. As a rule, the real deals are made at a price 10% less than that which was originally put sellers. And in 2011, hardly worth the wait for something else - not a mad take-off, no collapse of prices is not expected, says Money.

How much for an apartment

Throughout 2010 stagnant market: transactions were few, the price gradually declined. The proposed housing mortgage banks on the overall situation in the market is not affected. First, the price of mortgages were by no means lower than the market. In addition, the Ukrainians are afraid to communicate with the purchase of the collateral. Angered by the borrower can start a trial with both the bank and the buyer. And which side will be a trial, to anticipate difficult.

As a result, on average, in Kiev, "secondary housing" fell by 7 - 8%. The prices of actual sales were at 12 - 18% below the price proposals. Like a year ago, the apartments in good areas with good discount or find a buyer within a month, sometimes even weeks. The remaining proposals were idle for months, many people - and not waiting for a buyer so far.

This is not surprising - the purchasing power grew more slowly than the number of proposals. In Kiev in November in the databases were more than 15 thousand apartments that almost 33% more than in early 2010. Kiev "treshki" for the year fell by more than 7%, but the one room - just 5%. And the most significant decrease in prices affected the expensive central areas - housing premium.

For the year prices fell by 9%. On the outskirts of the apartment became cheaper economy class slowly and eventually lost less than 5%. In 2010, the satellite towns of Kiev prices for studio apartments actually caught up with the capital's housing, located on the outskirts. For example, in Brovary buy one-bedroom apartment is available for $ 38 - 60 thousand, and in Vyshgorod - $ 40 - 50 thousand on average in the cities of the satellite for 2010 apartments fell by 5%.

At year-end prices on the secondary market have been recorded in other large Ukrainian cities. Attempts to sell expensive observed in all cities of over one million, but they were not crowned with success: the prices either remained stable or fell by 5 - 15%.

For example, in Kharkiv on the outskirts of an apartment on the secondary market can be bought for $ 800 per "square". In the central regions of housing offered for sale from $ 1000 per 1 m2. Analyst at GK Proconsul "Julia Kostyuk said that sellers, if not reduce the price of the proposal, still willing to bargain within 10%.

In late 2010, the price of secondary housing in Donetsk, too, remained at the level of January-2010 - $ 1000 per "square". Lasted a short time the price game in Dnepropetrovsk: homeowners out there every week raised the offer price of 1 - 3%. But the scanty amount of trades in the market and intense competition chilled their ardor, and prices fell.

As a result, the estimated "Money", in Dnipropetrovsk, "secondary housing" for the year fell by 5%. About the same price drop offers fixed and in the secondary market of Odessa. And in Lviv, January-December 2010 price proposals fell far by 15%. Such dynamics - due to the fact that initially the markets in other cities were overheated much lower than in Kiev. Yes, and "appetites" Sellers modest.


In contrast to the secondary market, primary ended the year with a slight rise in price. Apartments in unfinished buildings or homes in the last stage of construction went up by 5 - 10%. According to the Ukrainian Trade Guild in 2010 in Kiev resumed construction on 55% of the objects that were frozen in 2008 - 2009. In a crisis idle for more than 80% of buildings.

Now in the capital sold 11 thousand apartments in new buildings. In August 2010 the sale was 11,5 thousand some developers are holding the top sales in the complete or almost ready-made objects to better times, when it will be possible to raise the price.

The more so as the completion of new construction steadily becoming more expensive meters. The difference in prices between unfinished and apartments to be built can be 20 - 30%. While the shares of property developers still lower prices. For example, before the New Year to buy an apartment built in or near unfinished home can be a 5 - 10% cheaper than the previously announced price. Even in companies that are not declared on the shares, it was possible to bargain up to 10% in case of introduction of the entire cost of housing.

Building gradually activated. According to preliminary results in 2010, commissioned 9.5 million m2 of housing, which is 48% more than a year earlier.

But the revival of construction projects is unlikely to greatly increase the number of proposals. Because many of the objects finished NPP buyers bought apartments before the crisis, free-for-sale builders there is almost gone.

With regard to repurchase long-term construction, how assure themselves developers, mass practice ransom frozen objects do not. Therefore, it is unclear when they will be completed - in fact, private investors-physical persons not willing to pay for the purchase of housing in locations where there are no signs of the builders. Buyers are now extremely rare considering options in homes with a degree of preparedness is less than 70%. In general, apartments in the primary market sold very poorly: if the crisis to sell 10 - 13 thousand apartments per year, for the first 9 months of 2010 in Kiev have implemented just 3 thousand apartments.

False bottom

The fact that the price bottom real estate market is passed, said in March 2009. Say, then had a record at least - an apartment in Kiev can be bought from $ 35 - 40 thousand today in the capital, too, can find secondary market for such costs - but it is low-quality facilities in disadvantaged areas.

In particular, malometrazhnye Gostinka on the outskirts are offered for sale at $ 38 thousand Oddly, but in late 2010 on the market again with rumors that prices will soon reach the next floor. For example, the chairman of the National Council of Realtor Chamber of Ukraine Alexander Bondarenko considers that given the economic situation in the country, the dynamics of the mortgage and real incomes, falling prices will continue. According to Mr. Bondarenko, within ten months of 2011 house prices will fall by 1,2 - 1, 7% per month. Total - about 14 - 20% for the year, if you believe this tough assessment.

President Alexander SSNU Rubanov less pessimistic in their forecasts. He believes that prices will decline by 1.5 - 2% per month only until the spring of 2011.

In 2011, we can expect not so much fall in the price proposals as growth margin between the declared and actual transaction price. This means that buyers should not hesitate to bargain, as during the bidding price can be reduced by at least 10 - 15%.

Investment demand for housing by the rentier-landlords in 2011 is unlikely to be high - the payback period of such investments significantly until more than 12 years.

Assess the impact of the Tax Code on the property market still extremely difficult - yet unclear prospects for landlords who have enjoyed the single tax.

So the long awaited realtors and sellers, the growth in housing prices will not start in 2011. Only low-cost and affordable mortgage lending can stimulate demand and, consequently, increase property values by 5 - 10%. However, banks still lend to everybody, and cheap is not ready.

Content tags: Housing Market Forecast
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