What was the year 2010 for the construction industry?

17.01.2011 10:08
Real Estate Market Analysis | What was the year 2010 for the construction industry? Before the builders in early 2010, there were many questions, among them "what to do?" Was not the most important because the industry by the beginning of the crisis, by 2008 was in full swing, and all of its segments - from designers designers to the latest painter knew - what to do and how.

In terms of technology, of course. But the crisis has raised questions that they last for at least two dozen years in a row did not have to answer. And in the world, few expect the event, which has long been considered "an internal affair of the USA" - collapse of U.S. real estate market - follow such an intricate chain of fatal financial and economic events. And she followed, and as shashechki dominoes began to fell one after the other global banks, multinational corporations, businesses and even countries (Iceland defaulted - an example), wrote Building.

Related article: Builders in Kiev continue to cut prices for apartments

Construction industry - a multi-level production-economic phenomenon, it is used in almost everything that mankind is able to produce, starting from the metal fittings, the most complicated construction vehicles, and the most-most importantly - money. Finance. The collapse of the banking system knocked out of the hands of builders of the most important tool: the ability to obtain starting construction loans. This is important because even the best of times, say, "Kievgorstroy" was not able to independently, on their money, without attracting the financial resources to build a residential building or complex. What to say about "simple" construction companies?

That's experts have estimated losses this year. "Afloat" in the construction market in 2010 remained about 20% of the players. Consumer demand for housing fell by 2,5 times, and offer even more. In 2009 it was built 6.3 million square meters of housing, but alas - hence the need otminusovat 2.2 million "squares" of individual buildings. Result - 4.1 million square feet of living space mass housing for the year, the result is absolutely shameful for all the years of Ukrainian independence.

As a result, the cities and villages of Ukraine remained and thousands of objects not only residential but also commercial, if there are at least some share of assets has been the state. Because it barely cope with the software, even protected budget items - pensions, salaries of teachers, doctors, police. Hundreds of objects were thrown, and many of them can no longer be resuscitated because their market value at the start no longer corresponds to today.

So many objects "lying" for two years, no longer have meaning. Industry inertial, it is very sensitive not only to technological, financial, and political changes. And they, they this year very seriously affect the state stroyrynka, and this is evident from the results of many of its segments.

Highly sensitive segment

The decline in production of housing was almost catastrophic. The figures we have already referred. Although early in the year one of the new leaders of the Minregionstroya "with absolute certainty promised that this year's constructors' will be given on-mountain" 9.10 million square meters of housing, although even in the most "fruitful" for builders in 2006 managed to reach only 8 3 million meters.

Perhaps he had in mind the huge numbers "unfinished" and that the government intended to allocate to its resuscitation 1,6 billion hryvnia. But as a result, this figure had slipped to 1.1 billion, and then, after the curtailment of the budget to 390 million and, according to recent preliminary data by the end of the year narrowed to an amount somewhere in the 100 million that the financiers were able to allocate these costs. Housing beginning to become cheaper, and seemingly irrevocably, though not in equal measure by sector.

Most apartments have suffered a "business class" and "economy class", because they were massive and relatively affordable, and with might and main banks issued loans to the population, particularly without regard for the potential borrowers in terms of return for these loans.

Luxury housing in a price for not affected, since it is constantly in demand by those who, in general, no matter what to buy for a hike on a fishing trip: a boat or an aircraft carrier. Better than an aircraft carrier, because it still more prestigious. But - the mortgage crisis ... The inaccessibility and poor solvency of the population have led to the fact that the developers were faced with a choice: either continue to raise prices, or simply stand and wait for better times. What they basically did. Zhilstroy in 2009 lost, according to various estimates, about 60% of capacity.

But infinitely more so, of course, can not continue. Recently, news agency LigaBusinessInform pursued a "round table" on which the heads of construction companies, representatives of the banking sector, summarizing the year, noted that the construction market is creaking, with cramps, but began to revive. And, incidentally, also noted the two periods when the market is "revived": Spring and Autumn.

Those same periods, which we in our comments, too, have repeatedly pointed out. But here's what some said Yuri Beletsky, general director of "Liko Invest: fatty tissue, accumulated from many developers over the years of prosperity dwindled. Housing prices hit bottom, behind which may be constructed only on paper because of the high cost of resources and materials developers are virtually impossible to have at least some margin of profit. " He's right: for our builders profit of 5% - not profits, as banks make loans at 18-23%, but not under 3. So it is not yet known what will wriggle zhilstroevtsy, but according to their calculations, the year will be waiting.

BAU-data in their reports have repeatedly noted, "ragged rhythm" in the industry, and giving suggestions as to why this is happening. Results of the year have shown, however, that the decline in housing construction in different regions was almost in parallel, albeit with different parameters. Say, Kiev, Center, Lviv, western Ukraine during the year held in the lead all the time, and have in January-November, under construction or planned for construction of housing facilities 817 and 509, respectively.

But Donetsk and Donbass and remained in the lagging, with an annual rate of - 127 objects. Kharkov and Slobozhanschina, Simferopol and the Crimea, Odessa and brands are stopped at the level of 276-255 objects, even though the housing needs in the regions are also vast. And to predict anything for 2011 is extremely difficult, because the exit of light produced several bills that, according to some experts, will finally revive the market, but according to others - "bury" him completely.

Independent segment

The crisis in the construction are critical to the overall economy. They affect her, she, naturally, on the situation in the construction industry. In today's unfinished capitalized tens of billions of hryvnia, but they do not move, do not push the rest of the market - ranging from building materials, finishing eventually declining purchasing power, have not been paid because of the frozen construction projects, which should work ...

Axiomatic that the development of the country depends on the activity of the construction industry provides the country with jobs and financial capacious products. But the country is now barely scrape together funds for the regular payment of pensions. It can not invest in industry, except perhaps in the implementation of state programs. But industrial building in the country is and the evidence of that - more than 1200 objects that are built and planned for the future.

It should be noted that the serious business builds everything himself, without regard to political or economic situation in the country, as he himself is planning to develop. And judging by the number of objects counted BAU-data in the past year, plans for a serious business, too serious, and obviously in a relationship with the state in his main demand: not to interfere! Because it is the state in recent years has not bothered to define their industrial priorities, although they have long scream about yourself.

Serious businessmen to hear, which is why the projects, BAU-data recorded during the year, many of which later, when the state determined priorities, will be most welcome. And useful elevators, silos, cargo fleet, factories producing food products, meat and dairy and pig units, poultry farms and factories for the production of animal feeds. And anyway - just in areas of our industrial giants and leaders are less likely to build their own industrial facilities.

In Kiev and in the Center in Lviv, western Ukraine, and they recorded nearly 250, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Odessa was given to 122, 162, 156, 155, respectively. Although there have long been industry bust, can, in other segments stroyrynka them things differently?

Promising segments

In recent years the theme of shopping centers has become one of most popular not only in literature but also in the popular press. They noticed! They in fact are growing like mushrooms after the rain all the cities and even villages of the country, causing confusion, even today people: Well, tell me, without them before? Today the mall to acquire even the city with a population of 400-500 thousand people, not to mention the "one million people, where they already exist in several pieces. We have already said that SEC almost become a mandatory attribute of the city or neighborhood, and here the construction of such a facility could bring as quick profits to the owner and the financial collapse if the market research performed hastily and poorly. Nevertheless, mall being built, many of them.

Recently in Kiev MALL-EXPO was held construction trade summit, where the projects were presented retail and entertainment centers, preparing for the construction or almost ready. And I must say, many of them are impressive. In essence, what mall? It is a modern retailer synthetic format that combines in its territory under one roof food and nonfood goods, service industries, public catering establishments (restaurants, cafes, bars), leisure (cinema, bowling, spa, movie theater, concert hall, a children's playground).

In Ukraine in 2010 "run" was recorded nearly 3000 such objects! Under construction, planned. Most shopping center and sites like them, were involved in Kyiv and Center - more than 1000. More than 500 - in Lviv and Western Ukraine. Least of all - 182 was built in Donetsk and Donbass. Although just a figure capable of surprising, since in this region through the year and a half landed a crowd of football fans, and would be embarrassed if they have nowhere to unwind in anticipation of the match, and after thereof. In Kharkov and Slobozhanschyna recorded 364 such objects, and this is more or less tolerable rate. But ... life will tell.

How many SEC needed in the country? Well, who knows. Experts believe that the daily traffic of visitors of the center must be at least 10.9 thousand people. The more people around, the more likely the success of the case. The larger area of the object, the more you can put on her business, service facilities, better equipped cinema or concert hall, the more visitors there. And so on. Of course, "Carnegie Hall" does not every city on the shoulder, but to this you can still try ...

Unstable segment

How much of our country need a hotel - not even deem a supercomputer, because today, in speaking of hotels, we are referring mostly to the Euro 2012, providing guests a short-term housing. Frankly, we, ordinary citizens, too, would do well to provide such housing, as the new economic conditions have to travel a lot and often.

But if we're talking about hotels, as one of the most prosperous segments of global business, we must bear in mind not only their numbers, although just for this indicator, Ukraine has been in all years are not "ahead of the rest." Only three years ago the entire country, there were slightly more than 1200 hotels, and even then, frankly, most of them are little different from simple hostels. With the amount we just might be, and manage, the outcome, only confirm this rather trivial idea.

In total we have registered over the past year under construction and planned construction of over 660 accommodation facilities. A significant part - in Kyiv and Center (total - 389), at a distance and keep Kharkov Slobozhanschina (110), Dnepropetrovsk Dnieper (103). In the Donetsk for UEFA EURO going to be put into operation 17 hotels, and God forbid that they succeeded. In Kharkov, too obsessed with the case, rebuilt under cheap hotels, even some former residences, and this is also out because of the same Czech Republic has used this possibility.

But so far that even a number of hotels did not affect the general security of the country hotel rooms, since they often build small hotels, with a weak level of hotel service. Our current domestic hotel business - it's mostly non-core investments of large industrial holdings that have enough funds to build the biggest hotel complex, but almost no experience in management.

We have not appeared virtually professional management companies, which would afford to compete with international network operators, although they appear in Ukraine - "dot" yet. Information about the positive intentions are - in the same Donetsk awaiting the appearance on the hospitality market of international hotel operators - Rezidor Hotel Group, Intercontinental Hotel Group, Accor, Resort Worldwide. Who traveled to, say, in Turkey, in Egypt, in Europe familiar with these names, and the level of their proposed hotel service, regardless of the number of "stars."

Do not lag behind in this regard and in Western Ukraine, which is, say, the hotel "Radisson" in the village Palyanytsa Yaremchanskogo city council ... but these objects must be incomparably more, since the annual increase in the flow of foreign tourists in Ukraine is about 20%, and most certainly have We have something to look at not only in Kiev and Crimea, but also - in Donetsk, and in the Carpathians and the Carpathian region, where local authorities pay to this segment of business much attention.

They seem to have been held at gunpoint contemplated at least in the dreams of a White Olympics in 2022. But without it, the Carpathians and the surrounding area - a real paradise for tourists, so it surprised pryti West-builders are not worth it.

What surprised us in 2011? And it would be better - nothing. Because the construction industry is too delicate, so there no end to experiment.

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