Demand: rising or falling?
Related article: In 2011 in Israel, waiting for a sharp fall in house pricesLike all real estate segments, the demand for houses and apartments abroad since the beginning of the crisis fell. According to the international real estate agency Gordon Rock, the number of purchases made by the Russians has declined in 2-2,5 times compared with the peak pre-crisis indicators of the second half of 2007 - the first half of 2008. "From the 2 nd half of 2009, demand for overseas property from the Russians began to recover. In 2010, the number of transactions continued to grow, but still lags behind pre-crisis peak performance by 15-20%, "- says Stanislav Singel, President of International Real Estate Agency Gordon Rock.
Illustrate the situation can and statistics purchases in Finland. "In 2009, the number of transactions involving buyers from Russia fell compared to 2008 from 780 to 403 objects. In 2010, the Russian buyers sold about 350 houses, "- shows Roman Kurzhunov, a consultant for the export of" Viekspo.
Worldwide demand for property has fallen even more, and against this background that our fellow countrymen, although reduced and the number of purchases, and budget vybilis the lead. "Previously he was a very high percentage of Britons who had committed investment purchase, now the proportion of Britons and other Europeans, much lower", - says Natalya Zavalishina, CEO of MIEL-DPM ». Estimated to Gordon Rock, the fall of 2010 the share of Russians and citizens of CIS countries among foreign property buyers in Latvia was 85%, in Montenegro - 65%, Cyprus - 45% in Egypt - 45% in Israel - 40%, in Croatia - 40%, in Greece - 40%. Nevertheless, the observation Stanislaus Singel, already last year, the British, Irish and Scandinavians are very actively returned to the market of foreign investment, and quickly won back the lost positions in 2008-2009.
Will the growing demand by the Russians this year? Then there are factors both for and against. According to Yelena Yegorova, business development director Penny Lane Realty, currently 38% of clients are buying properties abroad with the aim of moving to permanent residence, 32% - for recreation, 13,5% - for profit, and 11.5% are trying to save your money from the crisis. However, "when interviewing people who have bought property abroad, the situation looks already different: permanent residence, or disappears, or goes to last place, since acquisition of property abroad is not really in all countries an advantage in acquiring a residence permit and as a consequence of permanent residence, many simply do not know, "- says Elena Egorova. Consequently, the first category will probably be reduced. Others on the growth of awareness of buyers may also decrease. Those who are focused on buying "problem", they would think, analyze the experience of friends and acquaintances and understand that rent a house or apartment in the resort are cheaper and more convenient. Investors are also gradually learn from the mistakes of others, and the benefits of keeping money in such assets as real estate, now is also a big question ...
In any case, buyers have now become much more cautious. "Before the crisis needs quickly leads to transactions. With the onset of the crisis potential buyers longer speculate as to the asking prices by region and site-specific ", - says Natalya Zavalishina.
However, several factors still attracts the hearts of customers to foreign markets. "Mortgage credit is given to Russians let in less than the amount for local residents, but very similar, that is incredibly profitable as compared with Russian conditions. Also, do not forget about the low cost housing abroad compared to the Russian. Price of entry of foreign real estate to lower, and the value for the quality of life are much higher "- lists Elena Egorova.
What to buy
As in the past year, the preferences of consumers will be distributed in favor of ready-made objects: not yet time to risk, quite reasonably believe they are. In recent years, clients of real estate agencies spend to buy foreign home less money. "The tendency to reduce the average cost of buying, which began in 2008-2009 (a drop of 20% compared to 2007 second), continued in 2010 (fall another 15-20% relative to 2009,)" - said Stanislav Singel. The specialist explained this phenomenon for two main reasons. First, during the world crisis in the vast majority of countries have seen falling value of the property: for example, on a very popular among Russians for countries like Bulgaria, Spain and Montenegro, the fall amounted to 30-40%. That consequently led to a decrease in the average cost of purchased property. Secondly, the Russians, as well as buyers from other countries, have become more thrifty in their foreign purchases as compared to pre-crisis period.
Some experts suggest that the same situation will continue in the current year. Others, such as Stanislav Singel, convinced of the opposite: "In 2011 we did not expect to fall an average cost of residential property purchased by Russians abroad. Moreover, according to our estimates, will have a local small (5-10%) increase in average cost. This is due, on the one hand, restoring the solvency of Russians since the crisis, on the other hand, expanding opportunities for Russians in foreign banks, mortgage lending at low rates 2,5-4%.
Last year, the Russian investors, according to Gordon Rock, preferred: in the budget to 400 thousand euros - leaseback-property with guaranteed rental income in England and France in the budget to 800 thousand euros - mini-hotels and apartment houses in Germany and in budget of more than 800 thousand euros - commercial property and hotels all in the same in Germany. "In 2011 we did not expect significant changes in the preferences of Russian investors. Investments in "new" countries (such as real estate in Brazil), Rising from Western investors will not have a high interest from Russian investors - says Stanislav Singel. - Also the Russians are not interested in the scheme of share purchase real estate Fractional, which is very popular in the West. However, in 2011 we expect further growth in the interest of Russian investors to investments in European real estate investment funds (REIT) ».
Across countries and continents
Natalia Zavalishina predicts this year's decrease in consumer activity in countries such as UAE, Egypt, Turkey. "If there is to acquire an object, you should rely on a ready-made, built to minimize possible risks," - she recommends.
But continued growth in popularity of the developed European countries - Germany, Britain and France. "Right now to them experiencing a rapid growth of interest on the part of Russians - said Stanislav Singel. - Risky in terms of investment in 2011 will remain the UAE real estate markets, Calabria (Italy), Panama and other Caribbean countries. "
Igor Indriksons, director of overseas property investment company IntermarkSavills, warns against investment in countries and regions with low liquidity of real estate. "If the purpose of purchase - an investment, rather than use their own house or apartment while on vacation, then under no circumstances should not invest money in real estate Egypt, - he said. - Buy property in this country can be much more difficult to resell it. "
A similar problem exists and is now actively marketing the Italian province of Calabria. "Tourist flow there has not been formed, which, no doubt, would cause problems as the letting of the acquired object, and with its subsequent resale. Also in Italy, as well as in Spain, Greece and Portugal, large external debt, which means that at least the prospects for price growth. "
Experts advise buyers to be cautious in the new year, in the selection of homes with no emotion, but with sober calculation, and not to neglect the advice of professionals.