What awaits the real estate market in 2014?

12.02.2014 01:00
Real Estate Market Analysis | What awaits the real estate market in 2014? 2013 was marked by a significant number of the real estate market innovations in the legislation: to take effect the new order processing transactions, a tax on property ownership, restrictions on cash transactions and the new rules of real estate valuation. Many of these reforms have been taken from the practice of European countries , but as often happens in the Ukrainian realities , put into practice with a scratch or distorted beyond recognition.

According to experts and realtors, all painful reforms in 2013 responded to the real estate market. Particularly affected the sphere of secondary residences . Its sales have fallen sharply .

Related article: What to expect from the residential real estate market in November 2012?

Demand for inexpensive "kopeck piece" .

Residential construction in Ukraine , despite all the economic and credit difficulties in 2013 continued to gain momentum. According to the State Statistics Service, the volume of construction work in the residential sector increased by 6.6% compared with the previous 2012. In Ukraine, during the year there was 542 new large residential real estate , and , based on the specific area of ​​the country was built about 10 million square feet. m In Kiev alone built 1.35 million square meters. m of new housing, which once again became a record for the country. Also a lot of residential areas were built in the Kiev region ( 1.3 million sq. m.) , Crimea ( 938 thousand sq. m.) And Odessa region ( 676 thousand sq. m.) .

According to the head of the analytical portal "Capital estate" Zahara Fedorak , compared with the previous year the number of new buildings in the capital increased by 8.4% and amounted to 142 facilities . 59% of them - it's buildings economy , 27 % - business class and only 14% - premium . Its doors opened for tenants such large residential complexes, "Boulevard of Fountains ", " Panorama of Pechersk ", " Zverinetsky ", " Yaskravy ", " Ozerni zori ". In Sevastopol were commissioned residential complexes " Tauride ", " Omega- 2A " in Simferopol - "Kiev" , "Azure Batiliman ", and in Odessa - "Ideal" , "Arcadia Hills ", etc.

As the price of new housing , particularly in the capital, they, like last year, almost stood still . But if by the end of 2012 the cost of apartments in new buildings in Kiev still slightly increased - by 2.3 %, in 2013 prices , by contrast, little " rolled " back , losing 1% , write contracts . As a result, at the moment square meter in new capital is estimated to average 13.3 ths.

" Recent trends are such that new objects entering the market at prices slightly lower than the already sold buildings (typically 5-10% ) . At the same time, objects in the final stages of the prices rise - at least 05.10 % from baseline . It balances the average prices in the market. Fall does not give them the economic feasibility , which determine for themselves developers and grow does not allow the lack of economic growth in the country , the excessive demand , as well as an abundance of proposals , including the highly profitable and with installments "- says Zahar Fedorak .

In 2013, the secondary real estate market showed decline on all fronts
Most transactions to purchase meters on the primary market performed today without debt financing - for the buyer's own funds . " At the end of 2013 without borrowing concluded 50 % of transactions , buy using installment was observed in 40 % of transactions using credit - 10 %," - noted in the company UTG. Despite the unavailability of loans , the demand for primary real estate permanent . " Stable demand contributed primarily by developers launch their own programs and installment lending," - says head of sales of LCD Park Stone Dmitry Shostya .

The most popular among buyers in 2013, according to experts, use flat economy , which accounted for 80% of sales . Business-class housing , only 13 % were interested potential investors, and premium and deluxe - 6 % and 2% respectively . Sales leaders were one-bedroom apartments (48 % of transactions ) , 41 % of transactions accounted for one-bedroom apartments and 11 % - for objects with three rooms or more.

Live outside the city .

Significant growth in sales and showed in 2013 and the capital market suburban buildings , where the increase in sales compared with the year 2012 was 15% . Better situation with sales growth suburban developers achieved due to the price - 4-6 UAH / m. m ( for example , an apartment in Irpen or Bucha actually buy for just $ 25-30 million). Lower prices they achieve through the use of cheap materials , registration permits for simplified procedure ( in the case of low-rise housing construction ) , savings on the cost of land (which is much cheaper in the suburbs than in the capital ) . The following year, suburban boom continues - developers designate this segment of the market at least 10-15 % growth .

In the capital itself, and in Ukraine in general, the proportion of transactions in the primary market in 2014 will continue to grow (yet Resale buy more ) . " Prices will vary between inflation - up to 10% of the market average . Greater gains show large residential complexes , which are currently at an early stage of development, and buildings in undervalued areas that are booming now , "- said the representative of" Archimatika " Dmitry Vasilyev.

Resellers losing ground .

In 2013, the secondary real estate market showed decline on all fronts : b / apartments in the capital from January to December, lost an average of 1.4% of its price , at home in the city - 9% , at home in the suburbs - 0.5%. Of housing in the city has just cheaper apartments on the right bank and the city center - 3.5% and 5.7 %, respectively. As a result, at the moment the cost per square meter of secondary apartments in Kiev is averaging 15.9 ths home in urban areas - 12.2 ths home in the Kiev region - 8 th.

Prices in million cities have not changed so much - from minus 0.6 % in Dnepropetrovsk, Donetsk to 0.8-1 % in Kharkiv and Lviv. Currently square meter secondary apartments in Dnepropetrovsk is estimated at 9.6 thousand UAH, in Donetsk - 9.5 ths in Kharkov - 8.7 thousand UAH, Odessa and Lviv - 12.1 thousand . and 11.3 ths respectively.

Sagging real estate secondary market much more - a real depth of bargaining is about 12-20 % of the originally announced by the seller prices
Realtors do not hide that sagging real estate secondary market much more - a real depth of bargaining is about 12-20 % of the original price announced by the seller . And despite the fact that while the sale of the old property exceeds the level of sales of apartments from developers ( for the year in the capital were sold 16.1 thousand apartments in the secondary market and 14.5 thousand - in the primary ) , the trend is that the secondary meter lose its former attractive to buyers.

Negative impact on the secondary market in the past year have not only legislative innovations , but also the lack of cheap mortgages - year rates on loans for housing decreased by only 1% , and at the moment mortgage terms for second homes remain very strict : advances on loans start from 30-40 % at rates of 18-20% per annum. " Given that the number of joint programs developers and banks and increasing rates on such loans account for 15-18% per annum with an advance of 20-30% and credit terms up to 20 years , it can not but have a negative effect on the secondary market " , - the director construction company BGM Inna Brechko .

In 2014 , according to experts , sellers malometrazhek , Khrushchev and apartments in remote areas of the central part of Kiev and megacities have to make concessions to buyers , reducing their price by 5-15%. At year-end second homes will likely become cheaper by 6-9 %.

Without investment .

This year will be challenging for all without exception segments of commercial real estate. Vacancy rate will rise, which will entail increased competition in the market and falling rates. "Ukraine in the world is estimated as a risky state, which is not perceived as a platform for profitable investments . Thus, the international rating agency Standard & Poor `s downgraded Ukraine's long-term credit obligations in foreign and national currency by one notch to « B-»(« highly speculative " ) with a" negative "outlook . Other international agency - Moody `s - downgraded the sovereign rating of Ukraine to the level of Caa1 (« significant risk ") , warning of the possibility of a further downgrade. Without foreign investment in real estate breakthrough unlikely "- sums CEO Build and Live Development Victor mocker .
Content tags: Housing Market Forecast
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