Yaroslav Chapko Director of professional services and investment,
Knight Frank LLC (Ukraine)
In the last year watching as real estate agencies and many experts are vying argue that the crisis in the housing market was long over and the market is confident in the growth. Whatever news - continuous positive! I read and wonder just stands in front of the picture - prices are rising, buyers are being built in the queue to view the apartments, the developers drew long lines of wanting to buy unfinished square footage ... oh, yes what am I ... uv, dreamed ...
Now, seriously. Figures digit gains success, but the analysis of events in the housing market, I never saw a press release. In the New Year's Eve to sum up the year, remember, remember than the outgoing year. I suggest we look back and.
Beginning of the year was surprisingly calm. In the secondary market buyers continued to play for a fall, causing sellers to a state of quiet insanity. Forced sale of apartments were made with a fairly significant discount. Most sellers who are not in a hurry, trying to withstand the advertised prices, although many objects of prices remained almost at pre-crisis level. In principle, the choice of apartments on the secondary housing was wide enough in all price segments.
Primary market perked up by sales handed complexes (or close to delivery) and the loyal developers, generously handing out apartments in installments. Compared with bank draconian interest rates, reaching up to 24%, 10-15%, spin-on developers to balance of payments, seemed quite adequate.
By mid-spring and the buyers and sellers lost their nerve and they have been actively traded. And as a result, the boom in transactions in the traditional high season for the market - even in April and May. Most sales have been nothing more than a logical conclusion of bidding, which started well for the spring period. Just the price finally dropped to an acceptable level, or buyers finally got tired of waiting for the promised apartments "fair" price and decided to buy. Thus, began to be realized pent-up demand. On the market one after another began to leave the apartment and most liquid. The first went to market one-bedroom apartment, pulled them on demand and two-bedroom apartments in residential areas, views began intensive three-bedroom apartments.
Summer was a surprise to many Realtors. Despite the heat of summer, the market has continued to work actively. Agents do not have time to travel by visitors, although there were few transactions. Played into the hands of sellers currency volatility in global markets, an incomprehensible fate euro and the dollar, as well as talk of a second wave of the crisis, covering our native Ukrainian hryvnia. Alert buyers rushed urgently to turn their savings into a traditional store of value - real estate. By the way, is an indirect evidence of a significant outflow of deposits from banks. In other words, the population began to quickly convert currency notes in the "bricks". On the left the market, finally, all the best cheap apartments, pulled them over more expensive options. By mid-September the market was empty in terms of liquid variants of apartments on adequate price. Again, there were all the same crazy speculation offers apartments. Since the torque continued to firmly hold their ground, the buyers took a short break.
What about prices? That's right, began to grow. Showed growth and the offer price and transaction prices - gradually as withdrawal from the market of the cheapest options for subsequent sledki occurred at a higher price. Analysts were delighted and began to blow with might and main on the growth of the market. Can we call it growth? Theoretically yes, but in fact the market has traditionally reacted to the currency panic.
Take, for example - Obolonskiy Limes. Pre-crisis prices for apartments in new homes reached $ 4500 \ sq.m. In January 2011, sites were filled with ads 2-3-bedroom apartments at $ 2500 \. Sq.m. In the spring of flats offered for sale has been drastically reduced. Began to appear timid offers apartments for $ 3000 - $ 3200 \ sq.m. Although views on them are, they are rarely transformed into a transaction. Buyers are not resolved at such a significant investment, and the sellers were not ready to fall to winter $ 2500 \ sq.m. By the summer the situation is beginning to level off - tired of salespeople were already prepared to trade below $ 3000 \ m, followed the deal, the buyers were saving their money quickly from the crisis and the global and domestic. On the left the market, not only liquid options of apartments, but also a number of proposals illiquid, priced at $ 2500 \ m or even lower. Obolon such prices not seen a long time. By October, the market froze - still crazy offers apartments with "euro-repair", and buyers continued their run of hits, although the number of transactions fell sharply.
By November, the market is again presented his surprise customers - has been actively discussed topic in the transfer of the BTI Justice and the risks associated with real estate transactions. Once again, desperate buyers rushed into the fight - to buy all that's left. Again, prices and deals on the market. By the way, panic in the market and developers took advantage by raising the offer price in its widest complexes.
Can anyone even thought that the market has entered a stage of sustainable growth, and I did all these races resemble sobbing in hysterics. It's safe to say that pent-up demand (ie, savings in the egg capsules, from under the mattress, etc.) was carried out exactly in 2011. A stable trend, this factor can hardly be, since there are no real prerequisites for the growth of personal income, despite all the assurances of Goskomstat and respected officials, that the welfare of the people is growing exponentially. Potbelly also have their own bottom, and make savings of Ukrainians will not so soon, given the current state of the economy.
Does this mean that everything is so bad in the market? Not at all. This year has been quite successful for many developers. There were excellent facilities at the primary market, with quite adequate pricing (quality UV ..., well, the hell with it with this quality). Here are most of the purchases in the new buildings will not be more than a way to improve their living conditions, that is, through the sale of secondary options or sidings \ congresses families. What this trend threatens the market - is correct, the appearance of the proposals of apartments in the socket, Khrushchev, Malosemeika. A buyer today with no real savings become very demanding - it is not like an apartment with seats and bath rooms, reminiscent of the size of walk-in closets. Today's buyer Give spacious apartments with spacious rooms, large kitchens and bathrooms.
Therefore, likely that prices will continue to fall after only illiquid apartments, which will be exhibited for sale-purchase of the primary with an additional charge. The selection of quality apartments are unlikely to be large - speculative objects acquired during the growth of the market, have already been implemented in 2010-2011. In addition, alternative investment vehicles until the market offers, so sellers are waiting for the sale of many apartments, preferring to lease them. The primary organization will continue to be in demand, however, the large growth of transactions should not be expected - an increase in prices for new building slightly puzzled shoppers, and they're back on the secondary market.
And the prices - yes, I agree, the average price segment is likely to increase. Here are this growth will be driven not by the growth of transactions and demand, and probably the following factors:
At a primary:
- Changes in the sample - an extension of the proposal - the release of new objects with higher prices of the proposal;
- Increasing the bid prices as they become available many residential complexes (developers, dreamers);
- Leaching of the cheapest apartments in the complex under construction.
At the secondary housing:
- Of falling into the sample expensive apartments with inflated pricing ("and suddenly buy?").
Traditionally, anticipating the question, "so when did buy an apartment? really too late? "I wish all prospective buyers to find their dear hearts and wallets of variant apartment. Need to buy when you find that unique apartment you are looking for and where you feel cozy and warm. And then the price paid for it, you will not seem excessive.
On the eve of holidays, all market participants want good deals and discreet clients.