February 3, 2011 held round-table model and the cycles of the real estate market, on the status, problems and prospects of Ukrainian real estate market.
It was attended by representatives of different fields related to real estate market: real estate brokers, analysts, economists, bankers and insurers. The organizers of the roundtable - Realtor Chamber of Ukraine and the Union real estate consultants.
At the beginning of the discussion the chairman of the National Board of Realtor Chamber of Ukraine Oleksandr Bondarenko raised a fundamental question about the cycles of the real estate market. Rapporteur presented a chart developed in 2005 by the Italian analyst Alberto Gundini. This chart is based on an analysis of the 60-year history of the European real estate market reflects the cyclical and the rules of the markets.
This chart reflects the cyclical and the rules of real estate markets.
Here the vertical scale reflects the market value of the property, and the horizontal - the number of sales.
If we consider that according to the Justice Ministry over the past two years the number of transactions in real estate fell by 27% and the index value of the Kiev real estate (according to Domik.net) during this time reduced by almost 36%, then we can conclude that Today the real estate market is on the segment 4-5. As soon as we pass this piece - one can only speculate. But we can confidently say that after him will follow the interval 5-6, where the sales price will decline, but number of deals will begin to grow.
Then, inevitably followed by the segment 6-1, closing another round of market development. On this interval, the prices will be minimal, but the number of transactions will increase.
Rising prices will begin only on the interval 1-2. Number of trades at the same time will also increase.
It seems that on this chart is not quite correct proportions of selected segments. But the essence of the chart, apparently, quite correctly reflect the real picture of the markets. Those who wait for the price increase, we must understand that he probably will not be soon.
The real estate market and the pricing on it now undergoing major changes. Above all, the psychological component, which affects the price.
That issue was devoted to the presentation of James Marcus - Chairman of the Expert Council of the Union of Appraisers in Ukraine, known theorist in the field of evaluation, the author of many books. He noted that the value of real estate today, people rethought. Home buyers, for example, is already looking for an apartment, not only as a pleasant roof over their heads, but also compares the quality of living to the cost of acquisition and operation.
Pay 50-100 thousand dollars for the prospect of living the rest of his life in a squalid apartment in a squalid entrance, in the squalid home, today not many are ready. That is why we are waiting for interesting metamorphosis in the pricing of real estate. In detail, this issue is covered in the book of James Marcus "From value to value."
Economics - succinct expression of policy. Who is our government? The representatives of big capital exporters. What are they interested in? In the development of their own productions. In general, the subject is complex and multifaceted, we pay special attention to her, but the essence of speech the former president of the Association financial managers Larissa Gavrish, boiled down to the fact that today in our country, stagflation, and prospects for domestic consumption there. In this regard, there is no prospect of increased earnings of people and development of small and medium-sized businesses in Ukraine. Government statements about the scale of construction and other domestic programs would remain statements in connection with the lack of funding. As a result, purchasing power will fall and with it prices. Mrs. Havrysh questioned the effectiveness of the banking sector in lending purchases in the secondary market. People's incomes are falling, which is not conducive to effective lending. Therefore, competition for a mortgage that will unfold this year, likely will not bring a significant amount of lending. She also condemned the actions of the bankers. "Banks, instead of fulfilling its mission (value creation), are again trying to speculate with money, placing all risks on the private borrower.
Those present also noted the problems associated with non-public information about the state of the real estate market, companies use market analysts as a tool for their advancement, rather than qualitative information; general backwardness of the analytical apparatus. Reading the reports of analysts wonder. Some warn of increasing sales and prices, others - on the fall. Whom to trust? Do statistical analysis of prices may give the scatter in different directions from scratch? Somewhere in here, obviously there is corporate interest! And not the fact that time will put everything in its place. Perhaps it would be useful to connect to public organizations, in order to avoid misleading the citizens, analytical materials of questionable quality. Companies must understand the responsibility for his remarks, because every word can be a trigger for someone else's action.
But the main reproach in this regard to public entities that having almost all the information about transactions and prices, hide it from society. What is the purpose to hide - we can only guess.