The real estate market has not hit bottom

10.10.2014 00:30
Real Estate Market Analysis | The real estate market has not hit bottom On the Day of the realtor, the president of the Ukrainian representative of the International Federation of Real Estate Specialists Alexander Bondarenko FIABCI shared with us his vision of the real estate market in Ukraine. Some experts say that prolonged stagnation of the real estate market due to the economic instability of the country as a whole and a sharp decline in income levels, leads to significant changes in the structure of the market and reduce the number of its operators. Others try to remain optimistic. Alexander Bondarenko believes that information about a recovery in the market in late August and early September, has been greatly exaggerated, apartment prices continue to decline, and to predict anything in the current environment is quite impossible.

Alexander, how do you see the real estate market in Ukraine is so politically and economically difficult times? Changed something in the last six months?

Related article: Suburban housing estate developers are betting on economy class

The paradox is that even though the real estate market in Ukraine and fully formed in the years of independence, today it is practically non-existent. Let me explain: we have all the mechanisms, tools, trained professionals, more or less adequate legislation, even the consumer. But work in the market.

And it does not depend on the customer, not on the capabilities of its operators. First is always in need of quality supply, especially in the residential real estate segment. Here, perhaps, is triggered not only a universal human need for the home, but also purely Ukrainian mentality and the desire to acquire, even if small, but its own angle.

Today, consumers are simply no funds for the purchase of property. This question does not lie in the plane of the real estate market, and in the sphere of politics and economy as its consequences, geopolitics, in the end. And what we see ourselves - the crisis, declining living standards, income, political upheavals, war and TAU, international negotiations and agreements - is only the tip of the iceberg.

None of us "mere mortals" do not understand what is happening in world politics in fact, we have enough for this information. This means basic thing - none of us can do even more or less plausible forecasts of the situation. And this is the real estate market is concerned, just in the first place.

And what's really going on?

Take, for example, a number of publications in specialized journals and general real estate market. Since late August, they pestreyut joyful materials of recovery in the market, the positive forecasts of its development and other rapid-fire "joy". What's really going on?

The end of August and beginning of autumn - the traditional season demand for rental housing, and as educational institutions, fortunately, continue to work, cheap apartments are still in demand. On the other hand, go refugees from the eastern regions, and part of them is calculated as the time for the rental apartments of economy class.

Yes, it's all a bit stimulated the real estate market, but, first of all, only in the rental segment. And secondly, I think that the surge this season, on the one hand, and a one-time, on the other. There is also a third party - Workers across the Ukraine is not so much. According to official statistics, to date from the war zone and the ATO had left about 300 thousand. Persons. This is an average of 60-70 thousand. Households out of which only about 50 thousand. Morally and financially prepared to pay for rent. Across the domestic real estate market is quite a bit. In addition, the "action" disposable - arrived, they took off to live six months or a year, and then will be to renew the lease or leave. Of any stable recovery in the market are not talking.

Take, for example, Europe, which we are trying to navigate. In Germany, about 10% of the working active population aged 19 to 55 years, every year change their place of residence within the country. This is an ongoing process that is associated with a career change, work, school, family relations. In the countries that joined the EU recently, this process is even more noticeable, but here we are talking about migrating to other EU countries, mainly due to the change of work.

And what happens in the market purchase and sale?

On some changes in the market for buying and selling real estate it does not go. Transactions there is little, and those that occur - Single and honesty, casual. In June in Kiev was recorded about 400 transactions in August - about 500 seems to rise and there, but is looking to compare. For example, during the crisis in 2008 in the capital consisted of not less than three thousand. Transactions monthly.

Now holds primary real estate market, and it is quite natural. It is here that people carried dollar savings, when it became clear that the crisis can not be avoided - because real estate has always been considered a good investment and kapitalohranilischem. The more so that the average cost per square meter in 1000 USD, which is morally ready to domestic buyers, prices in the primary market was slightly lower.

What is happening today the pricing of the real estate market?

Mess. That is no real economic levers, but the laws of human fears, in connection with hostilities and aggression large neighboring state. In order to make a more or less objective conclusions on the situation in matters of pricing, you need to be fully knowledgeable in all aspects of the market, different regions, classes of property; oriented to the real transaction. That is to closely monitor and analyze. Today, Ukraine is not possible, at least because of the access to the regions physically closed, and the rest - full calm sales.

Official price lists and suggestions, as we understand, inflated and can not serve as the basis for such an analysis. From personal experience I can say that in private bid price is often cleared and up to 25%. And considering the feature of today's political situation, there is a whole category of sellers willing to sell the property almost for nothing, only faster. I am referring to the owners of Ukrainian real estate who are citizens of the Russian Federation. For example, was recently sold dvushka area of ​​slightly less than 50 square meters. m in good condition near the Kiev-Pechersk Lavra in just 65 thousand $. - Just because the owner was afraid of further price reductions in the coming months.

Migrants from the eastern regions of the situation will not be affected, since the bulk of their capital invested in square meters there in a combat zone, there is no access to them when you see - do not know what state property - assume difficult. Escape from a "live" capital there was only the elite and their entourage. But, first, they are not so much to these transactions amounted to a massive increase in the market, and secondly, they have managed to get here with housing.

Will it change the situation, and in what direction?

Will. Option, traditionally, two - the worst and the best. According to the first, due to the lack of real demand in the property market, prices in dollar terms will decline significantly, leading to collapse at the same time and in the primary market.

Best-case scenario, we have only in the case of some of the global changes and, above all, the end of hostilities. This will contribute to the revival of the market, earn the position of the Association with the European Union, the Ukrainian market will go overseas investment and business will start to increase incomes. And then it will be possible to predict something positive for the real estate market

How willing Ukrainian realtor to the European style of work?

I have a very ambivalent perception of the moment. On the one hand, there is a generation of professionals, mostly young and middle-aged who are willing to work not only in Europe, but also to help others do the same. They are active, trainees, although already professionals, mobile and optimistic and in combat. I believe that they are ready to work in any environment, quick to learn and rebuild.

But on the other hand, there are others, the complete opposite. These believe that there is nothing to learn from them, they know everything and do not see any need for the development of the market, or in your own personal growth. They are too lazy to "waste time", I'm not talking about money on professional training and seminars, they do not read books, far from professional online resources such as yours, and communities.

Hope one - market operators in the first category will make work competently, even those who are not used to it. Idealists many may not be - only 7-30% "burning" people are able to achieve anything. On the Independence was 1.5-2% of idealists, and because they have changed the course of history!
Content tags: Housing Market Forecast
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