The real estate market and cottage construction in 2009

25.12.2008 00:00
Real Estate Market Analysis | The real estate market and cottage construction in 2009 Sergey Eliseev, CEO of Europe "(cottage complex" Olіmpіk-Park »)

- As you know, the financial crisis has provoked the development of negative processes in the real estate market. If we talk about the market-town cottage building, then it is less affected by the crisis and has significantly less risk than other market segments.

Related article: Interest in-town housing drops dramatically

The crisis will take place in several stages. The first phase, which is observed in the past three months - a decline in sales. It's no secret that over the spring of 2008, sales dropped significantly, while in the cottage, in contrast to the apartment market, they are completely stopped.

The second phase of the crisis is to reduce developers quotation. Now this process has already begun, but an active fall we will observe only since January. In terms of consumer demand in the period January-March, the market will experience a really hard time, up to a complete stop sales. Some developers certainly will try to revive sales by sharply lower prices, thus giving a signal across the market. However, judging from the experience of Russia, who survived a similar crisis in 1998 - a sharp decline in prices does not lead to better sales dynamics.

At the suburban real estate market price cuts will affect, first of all, conceptually weak projects, as well as the cost of houses in the villages which had been overstated. Towns with liquid characteristics and reasonable price have the ability to restrict the minimum discount. As for the primary market of apartments, it expects a significant decline in prices, which will be 20-30% lower compared with the cost of similar apartments in the secondary market.

The crisis in Ukraine is developing much faster than anticipated. It is therefore likely that the achievement of the "bottom" of the crisis will happen in the near future. The next phase of the crisis will be a recession, then recovery of the market. How long will the recovery period the big question. Hard to say what tsenary out of the crisis will choose Ukraine - it depends on the actions of state and global conjuncture. The recovery period suburban real estate market will begin in the second half of 2009. However, sales in the cottage in 2009, did not reach the level of 2008.

Revival in the market of cottage townships will begin in late spring. By this time the market is to produce adequate financial offers. It is safe to say that in dollar terms, prices will fall, and rise in hryvnia. Buyers and developers in the coming year should be defined with a price point in the national currency. Subsidence in dollar terms, all developers will be different, depending on the quality of the project. Most of inadequate project will be frozen. Strong same liquid projects cottage townships prosyadut in dollar prices for a maximum of 20-25%.

It is difficult to say which of the projects on the suburban real estate market will be frozen in 2009. De facto, dozens of projects that are in the initial stage of construction, as well as projects with undue valuable or weak concept has ceased its development. "Freeze" and threatens to developers who have a large number of projects in different market segments and are therefore forced to diversify risks. For example, in October, has openly declared the closure of cottage construction project known development company «KDD-group».

We can confidently predict that in 2009 the real estate market of Ukraine, including suburban, foreign investors will come. The domestic market remains very promising, primarily due to the high unmet demand. Big investors will be waiting for the market crisis reaches the "hard bottom", and probably already in mid-2009 will start to buy long-term development projects.
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