The housing market is waiting for a collapse. Or - the rise of





29.10.2010 10:38
Real Estate Market Analysis | The housing market is waiting for a collapse. Or - the rise of Creeping situation in the housing market, showing the status quo in prices and transactions, forcing experts to make predictions completely different directions-from the inevitable collapse of the next up is as inevitable upturn. Sight-Real Estate is the polar points of view and analysts' estimates.

Judging superficially about the price of the capital's housing market, it seems steady and fairly rapid growth in housing prices, the rates approaching pre-crisis levels. On the other hand, the abundance of outdoor advertising on sales of new buildings says that without the kinds of stocks and "special conditions" developers are still hard to sell their goods. Realtors and analysts from different companies provide forecasts in their own interests, which often have little in common with the real situation.

So, first of all, you should pay attention to prices, the number of transactions (ie, demand) and their dynamics over the past few months. Due to the jump in the dollar rise in the cost per square meter in the capital turned out to be quite significant. Accommodation in Moscow for the past seven days, on average, increased in price by 2.3% or 3,100 rubles. The price of the square today, according to the magazine Metrinfo.ru, 139,2 thousand rubles. The dollar index, in contrast to the ruble, for the week increased by only 0.2%.

2.1% added to the cost of square meter in the old prefabricated houses, its price is 124,532 rubles. 2,4% for the week rose to the standard panel apartment buildings 9-14 stories, where the meter is exposed to an average of 128.7 thousand rubles. Modern panel rose in price by 2,1%, reaching the level of 136.2 thousand rubles.

2.2% - this increase in the cost of a meter per week in the old brick houses. Thus, the square of the average cost today of 135.9 thousand rubles. Housing in the Stalinist model and brick homes has risen in price for the past week to 2.7%, reaching 158.5 thousand rubles per square meter. At 2.3% increased cost of a meter in modern monolith-brick houses, the price today - 154.8 thousand.

There is another way of looking at the prices and the dynamics. For the week of 18 to 24 October 2010 the price index for housing in Moscow, which is calculated by the Analytical Center GdeEtotDom.Ru fell by 0,1% - to 145 thousand rubles per square meter. The price index for housing in Moscow region for the week also declined by 0,1% to 65,2 thousand rubles.

In general, about the Russia of the 43 studied at week 18 to October 24, 2010 Analytical Center GdeEtotDom.RU cities offer prices fell in 11 cities, and grew to 25. In other cities the price change was less than 0.1%. The maximum growth of the average bid prices was the week in Tula (0,6%), Penza (0,5%) and Khabarovsk (0,6%). The greatest average asking prices fell in Saratov (-0.9%), Barnaul (-0,4%), Kazan (-0,3%).

There is also the official data from Rosstat, which is really hard too optimistic. Judging by the figures in the construction industry of the country continues during the recession: the volume of construction work in the 3 rd quarter of 2010 was only 2.2% more than a year earlier - in the 3 rd quarter of 2009.

If the volumes of works, though still low, but still growing, such a lagging indicator, as the commissioning of residential properties continues to decline. During the third quarter of 2010 was commissioned at 14% less housing than for the same period in 2009. This year, as claimed in his study of analysts Rosstat, it may be on this indicator most unfortunate for the last 5 years.

"I would like us to free and low-cost housing or not - is irrelevant to the objective conditions that are only now beginning to emerge in and out of the acute phase of the global financial crisis - said look-Real Estate Consulting CEO of" Bureau of information support investment Viktor Shcherbakov. - Suffice it to mention two factors that have been and will be cornerstones in the growth of prices of residential "boxes" - is the unresolved issue of the housing for the millions of citizens and the extremely slow pace of construction. We build 3-5 times smaller than required, and this is the answer to the question of future price increases. "

Head of Research portal IRN.ru Oleg Repchenko, for its part, believes that "despite all the talk, serious growth in house prices this year were not, and the prerequisites for this growth is also no.

There are even more pessimistic in terms of prospects for the housing market forecast, which published the magazine "Finance". Analysts note the publication of the complexity of the overall situation in the Russian economy, which is reflected in the increase of tension in the labor market and reducing consumer demand. "The stability of the global economy is extremely shaky.

A new drop in world prices for raw materials could drastically worsen the situation in the Russian economy and cause the collapse of the deferred real estate market ", - considers the head of the Center for Economic Research IGSO Basil Koltashov.

According to him, the authorities can go in this case to save individual banks and construction companies, and others "to get the cash will go on sale accumulated objects. Slow decline in prices could resume in the winter. But radical changes are waiting for the market later, analysts say.

The publication also notes that the overall condition of the housing market remains "depressed". Increase the value of domestic real estate was going against world trends - the growth of supply and demand reduction.

"Despite high oil prices in the domestic sphere of home sales began to show consequences of summer drought. Reduction of retail sales has created conditions for a deterioration of climate in all areas of the economy associated with the Russian domestic market. Naturally, the housing - the most expensive consumer goods among the first had begun to feel the change, "said study author.

As proof of its position expert cites Rosstat, whereby the volume of housing construction in Russia fell for a third consecutive month. In September, was built 4.5 million square meters of housing, which is 13.6% lower than in September 2009.

These facts and the truth have a place to be, but there is a downside objective and very positive trends, as many respondents Sight-estate real estate market may "neutralize pessimism" of the construction industry. First and foremost, we are talking about the rise in prices for the same new building, which is a simple fact of recovery. Secondly, the growth of housing loans and lowering mortgage rates may again "disperse" the number of transactions for the purchase of housing.

So, according to the company Kreditmart, in early 2010, the number of banks issuing loans for apartments in new buildings, was about five, today they number fifteen. The most popular banks offering loans to primary housing secured by the acquired property, are: Sberbank, Gazprombank, VTB 24, "Revival", RosEvroBank, Moscow credit bank, Nordea.

Formed competition - one of the factors lowering rates. Today, before registration of ownership of the flat average mortgage interest ranging from 10.5 to 16%. Compared with the previous year rate decreased by 2-3%. If a borrower has a 50% down payment, then the program HMLA can get a mortgage 10,5% (up to the initiatives of the Savings Bank it was the lowest rate in the market).

Favorable mortgage program would cost nothing, if we were not provided with housing. According Rosreestra since the beginning of this year registered a 40% increase facilities compared with 2009.

Many experts have attributed the sluggish development of market transactions for the purchase of new housing with the factor of "crisis of fear unfinished or bankrupt developers. Many see in disbelief buyers cause the status quo in prices. Of course, the negative role played by the massive "freeze" objects during the crisis. As a result, if it had new buildings have been the locomotives of growth in prices for secondary housing, now situation is the opposite.

If you try to summarize and identify the most important thing in forecasts of the market, in general, today we can speak of a gradual, albeit fragile, recovery of the housing market. This year, the major increase in secured major economically developed cities and, above all, Moscow. At the end of October, average housing prices in Moscow have made about 138 thousand per square meter against 121 thousand in January. After experiencing the traditional summer lull, fall house prices start to rise.

"Indicators of Real Estate Market forecast on its website Irn.ru, that" good "areas of the city average price increases over the next three months will be about 1,7-2,7%. That is, if trends continue, the annual cost per square meter will rise to 30%, and actually fits close to the pre-crisis levels.

This calculation has the full right to exist, given that the previously-Sight Property prices predicted to return to their "peak" values of 36-48 months after the crisis began.
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