The housing market in 2011 will continue to stagnate

15.12.2010 12:28
Real Estate Market Analysis | The housing market in 2011 will continue to stagnate Highs in real estate prices have remained behind.

December's decline in the dollar prices for Moscow residential real estate professionals make to revise forecasts for 2011. Some experts predict that in the spring of the second wave of the crisis, which could bring down housing prices.

Related article: Forecast the real estate market in September

Others predict a modest increase in prices in the capital up to 15% in ruble terms. Short-term investments per square meter, appeared to finally lose the economic sense.

"In December, lowering the dollar price of the Moscow residential real estate, which began in late November, sped up" - say experts from the Centre of the Higher School of Economics. In this case, they refer to the company's data IRN, which recorded a decline in the average price per square meter to 4,548 dollars (-0.24% for the week against -0.1% in the previous period).

Nevertheless, some companies continue to report on the ongoing increase in prices. Thus, analysts' NDV-estate "on the capital market of new buildings in November recorded the rise in the cost per square meter as the dollar and the ruble equivalent. Average cost per square meter in rubles, according to their data, totaled 154.9 thousand, which is 1.9% higher than October.

Some experts NG suggest that in the next few months, moderate growth trend in property prices in the capital maintained. "As in 2011, significant economic growth in Russia is not expected, it is not assumed, and significant changes in the property market", - said Professor of Russian University of Economics Gennady Sternik.

In the government forecasts growth of real incomes laid the Russians at the level of 3-4% per year. In this regard, the expert said that the rise in house prices will be limited. For example, in Moscow next three years, the apartment could go up by about 15% per year. In St. Petersburg and other regions - home prices will also rise, but at a slower pace. And the real estate market in 2011 will not always go up, I am convinced Sternik. Motion may be oscillatory. The price may drop 3-4 months in a row and then win back drop new growth.

A commercial director of "Summer Project" Alexei Gusev his view: "In 2011, growth will be common to all segments of the market, but obviously oversaturated, such as, for example, plots without a contract at a distance of 50 kilometers from Moscow." As a result, house price growth in 2011 across all segments of about 15-20%.

"Next year, a marked increase in housing prices is highly unlikely, as factors that could cause it are weak. Effective demand for housing space than before the crisis would still not high "- suggests the head of the analytical center GdeEtotDom.Ru Alexander Pypin.

He believes that the rise in house prices in Russia in 2011 will not exceed inflation. However, the fall is also not expected: the volume of construction of the last two years declined, which led to a reduction in the primary market. Here we must remember that the mortgage market by volume is still two times less than before the crisis, and the market sold off stocks "investment" apartments.

The fact that the realtors and developers are trying to paint a favorable picture of the price for them, fueling consumer demand, it is not surprising. However, cases of outright distortion of facts are rare. "While it is without guile sometimes does not do" - recognizes Pypin.

For its part, the head of the analytical center "INCOM" Dmitry Taganov recalled that since the beginning of 2010 the situation in the secondary housing market remained stable. "Owners no longer expect growth in cost per square meter and expose their apartments for sale, adding to the already high volume of supply of apartments in the capital. In November, the offer of apartments in Moscow increased by 2.4%, while suburbs - 0,6% "- sums up Taganov.

But there are fears that next year's possible new round of crisis. However, their share is not all. "The probability of the scenario of deepening crisis is rather small. Because of the predictions of this new wave was supposed to cover us as far back as 2010, but has not yet been covered. Scenario of the second wave of the crisis based on two arguments: the credit load is increased, while demand is low.

But these arguments are not convincing enough ", - said director of sales department of elite real estate company Penny Lane Realty Aleksander Zima. It comes from the fact that developers have restructured debts in exchange for a concession to a certain percentage of the bank's business. Moreover, restructuring takes into account the fall in demand and consumers' ability to pay.
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