That the year 2014 bring?

28.01.2014 01:00
Real Estate Market Analysis | That the year 2014 bring? The holidays have passed, reports commissioned on Hrushevskoho truce - and you can think about the business. It's time to reflect on the past for the future to tell fortunes. So, what is remembered as the real estate market 2013th year? 1. Legislative innovations . Itching legislation and further attempts monetization power haunt " meadows nard ." At times, they coincide with the logic of business , most do not. From what relates directly to the real estate market, it makes sense to point out the following :

• Introduction of a new system of registration of rights to immovable property and their encumbrances . Initiative is right on time, even highly -mature (well, not the Ministry of Justice and SLC could divide the pie before) , but made ​​, as always, koryavenko . Not only that convey information about already registered rights of BTI Registry no one could (as a result we all pay for the registration of existing rights again) , so more and registers (or rather the right to ON ) were in private hands, of - for what have problems with their work . But on the whole process of buying and selling acquired a certain logic and become more convenient .

• A tax on real estate. That's got . First, the process of privatization , most of our citizens have become owners of meters , and now the hour has come to pay for it . True to the first never happened - take what you want, but how to do it - do not come up . But in 2014, will pay . And this innovation really touches few bets quite humane , but step is the hardest ...

• New rules for assessing property for tax purposes. But where corruption blooms and smells ! The need for this innovation is sucked from the finger. But you can not pass up such a stable cash flow ( and score a couple of years is needed in every real estate transaction ) . So like what happened only the third time ( the previous two attempts were blocked entirely unwilling to structure). Who is the ultimate beneficiary of this scheme - there are different opinions . But it will give citizens uniquely inconvenience in the evaluation process ( increasing time , complicated procedure) and an increase in tax payments. From February 1 , when the scheme will be unopposed , with a probability of 99 % price increase and evaluation. Pokraschennya , but ...

• The introduction of mandatory cashless payments . The idea , like, and good . But in a country defrauded investors by artificially stable exchange rate , ready at any moment to collapse, and global confidence in the hryvnia in general and banks in particular , this idea turns into another relatively legitimate way of confiscation of cash from citizens . September was held in addiction , then were found comfortable enough mechanisms for implementing these requirements and it worked as usual.

What are the results of all these stories . Transaction costs in real estate transactions increased and there is no way around this . Possess a large estate becomes more expensive . But the transfer of ownership has become easier and safer. But most importantly - on the global market is not affected. Snow in March on market activity had a greater impact . With all the prices showed stability ( slightly up cheap sale and rent fell - expensive) , and the number of transactions was slightly more than in 2012 . This state of perturbation sluggish stretches from 2010 . Defrosting protracted bargaining and reduction in transactions were the first hints of activation , but some speak of a confident sign of improvement is not necessary.

2 . Defrosting protracted . Panic after the crisis, many developers were frozen objects. Time passed, nowhere to go , the brain used to the new reality - and quietly resumed construction . Talk about the boom , of course, do not have to , but the number of protracted markedly diminished . Moreover, Sami bold and financially stable developers are developing new , quite interesting projects. Here, however , it is necessary to separate the wheat from the chaff. Triumphant officials about the insane amount of commissioned meters must be divided into three - most of this footage is commissioned through a simplified procedure for temporarily samostroem . Yes and information noise about various government programs to support housing is more noise than matter. But exactly what happened , so it's a gradual movement of the secondary demand for a primary . In Kiev in 2013 (the data are difficult to verify , but it seems it is) the first time the primary was bought more than the secondary .

3 . Commercial real estate. Shopping and office centers are built quite actively . It is now one of the few ways of investing . But the market is close to saturation . Office space vacancy rate increases in commercial real estate until everything is stable . But many projects announced to be released in 2014 , that there are legitimate concerns . Well, no longer bell and alarm - leaving our market fairly well-known brands (same Seppala , Monarch ) , the absorption of the right company competitors , ie monopolization ( Epicentre New line Eldorado - Technopolis , Mobilochka - Allo ) and withdrawal of foreign investors ( Commerzbank , Intesa , Dragon kpital ) . In their place until new ones come. But all this once again suggests to us that the economy in general and the real estate market in particular is still in deep crisis and the prospects are not visible.

4 . Land market and suburban real estate sad. Earth almost nobody needs to buy only the most attractive ( nice place , the presence of neighbors and communications, dumping price ) . Country house alternative to urban housing has not yet become. Although sales and there - you can actually buy a house below construction costs. Large land just nobody wants - not the business expands, new build cottage town not start . And this segment of the market will come to life with the latest .

5 . Mortgage and project financing. Well, the dead either good or anything . So silent. Although sometimes dokreditovyvayutsya ( 10-15 thousand if the purchase or repair is not enough) .

Briefly summarize the year - stability. Even wrong - dead calm . Who was very necessary - already sold or poreshat questions somehow different . So that the sellers on the market today is not the most motivated and sell anyhow not ready to sell . Buyers have the opportunity to choose , so go take a look , choose. Find something interesting - buy, not - and do not survive . This, of course , does not apply to low-cost housing segment . There and sell and take quick and good lot of hard work . Rethink reality developers feel relatively well . Money for the foundation stage, customers are not yet (unless under the most eminent good discount ) , but closer to commissioning buy. Reasonable layout, reasonable prices ( lower per square meter than on the secondary ) and installment programs make their offer more attractive (compared to Resale ) .

What awaits us. Options when the dollar is 15, and Ukraine declare bankruptcy , will not be considered . Not because it is unrealistic, but because then everything is clear - to collapse and stop everything. But while maintaining the status quo will have another year 2011-2012-2013 - quiet, inactive , without an excessive growth / decline , with no visible reaction on state innovations and other news background .

In residential real estate prices are a little desire to fall, few customers , the timing of the sale of real big, but sellers do not care and does not motivate . For those who are willing and ready to buy something quite convenient moment - there is a choice and enough time to make a choice without haste. Primary cell will exhibit more interesting dynamics , unless developers dizzy with success will not start.

In commercial real estate deserves that build and try to pass it all . As a result, the vacancy rate will increase , and it is likely prosyadut prices . Sales will be at least the market - even less. Tenants like and they rule , but good deals will not be much .

Land stagnant. Even say nothing. So if you are tired of the housing department and two cars in the family - Go , find , buy, and you will lose !

That's still waiting . May God grant us peace and wisdom !
Edward Brazas director of agency services , Head of the Committee on Information Technology and Intelligence Association of Realtors of Ukraine , Sitikon

Content tags: Housing Market Forecast
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