Results of suburban real estate market (Jan. - Aug. 2010)





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14.09.2010 12:47
Real Estate Market Analysis | Results of suburban real estate market (Jan. - Aug. 2010)

 

Came to an end is the hottest season of the year, and in terms of weather, and in terms of expected sales in the real estate market. With what results we come to the beginning of autumn? How to change consumer preferences and priorities of the developers?

Many developers have complained of insufficient sales, writing off failed to abnormal weather conditions in which people behave in principle not very active; decreased in a time of crisis, and so will not recover income level of St. Petersburg; difficult situation with the provision of mortgages. However, there is a quite natural view that the money from the population did not become smaller, they just are now more carefully and thoughtfully put. In this sense we can say that things have not changed much, and buying activity leaves much to be desired.

The tendency to reconception already implemented objects. Many of them are put up for sale of land without the need for outsourcing. This proposal comes even from companies initially offering only the houses or plots of binding contract. Thus, today one of the key trends, causes the development situation in the country market in 2010, is a significant increase in the number of land plots in the overall structure of the sentence.

Now developers have previously realizing holdings of 10-12 acres, are increasingly willing to "cut" settlement on the sites of almost any area.

More loyal attitude emerged in regard to the material of which is proposed to erect houses on plots with binding contract. Of course, left the company, strictly adhering to the chosen concept, but also significantly increased the number of those who now ready to build houses from any materials selected by the buyer.

All this is explained by the desire to expedite the completion of projects and gain early profits, not sales stretching over time. In particular, this applies to individuals who purchased the land several years ago, before the crisis, expecting quick success, and now wishes as soon as possible to get rid of excess "headache".

Still remains urgent postponement of delivery of objects at a later time. The overall reduction in demand for suburban real estate market led to a shortage of funds to complete construction. Sometimes ready-made houses in the project are quite a bit, and everyone should be constructed after making another deal. As a result, the average period for which developers carry delivery of objects, is 1 year.

Some of the developer, for example, Eurosib-Development "," PulEkspress Group "and" Stink "practices as secondary sales already completed settlements. Moreover, it is not just about single objects, but also dozens of sites. Before the crisis, many put their finances in a suburban real estate, purchasing several parcels of land, and now, having waited the most difficult times of low prices and instability, prefer to sell the existing property in land.

According Poselkispb.ru the end of summer - early autumn 2010 season in St. Petersburg and Leningrad region, there are about 413 organized cottage communities in various stages of operation. In 294 of them being the sale (Figure 1).

 

Traditionally, the leader in terms of offers are Vsevolozhskiy and the Vyborg district, Leningrad region. Are concentrated in 26% / 109 and 23% / 96 cottage communities, respectively. On the third highest number of submitted items - Priozersky (11% / 46) and resort areas (8,7% / 36) (Figure 2).

Since the beginning of the year (January-August 2010) the increase in supply amounted to 15,4%, ie, the market was withdrawn a total of 55 new cottage complexes (Figure 3). Moreover, 22% of new projects (12) - only in Vsevolozhsk area. For comparison: according to the information portal Poselkispb.ru for all of last year entered the market 57 new settlements. The difference in these indicators demonstrates a positive trend.

 

Continues the gradual development of remote areas of the Leningrad region. So, first introduced the proposal (3) in the Luga district - Lake Vrevo "," Vrevskaya "and" Beaver ". In addition, entered the market in a village near Kingiseppsky - "Striving." However, it is worth noting that the pace of development of distant corners of the Leningrad region is still down, and Volosovsky Slantsy areas in the first half of 2010 did not stir new projects.

The development of the southern areas of the field still is not standing still. The total number of villages in Gatchina, Lomonosov and Tosno districts replenished by 15 new objects, which is slightly higher than in the past year (9 sites), but significantly less than in 2008 (59 objects). Thus, we can conclude that the market in this area is rehabilitated, but very slowly. An important trend in 2010 is the fact that the villages, reported in the southern districts of the region, contribute to a favorable cottage development, which in the future is quite able to compete with the untwisted northern region. Among the most high-profile projects: "The Mariinsky Estate" (Bi Hai-Invest) in Tosno area, near the Bowery Izvara »(Parabola Group) in Lomonosovkom and the" Golden Keys »(Start Development) in Gatchina.

It is no secret that in addition to infrastructure and quality of construction, a weighty factor when choosing a home or area is its location, namely: distance from the Ring Road (KAD). Since many view cottage for permanent residence, the most popular are the objects of which road to take no more than a half hour. If we express it in kilometers, we get about 40 km from the Ring Road. To date, 63% / 262 project is located in this region, with 48% / 198 - up to 20 km from the Ring Road. The percentage has not changed compared to the end of 2009 (Chart 4). Ti 55 new cottage complexes (Figure 3). Moreover, 22% of new projects (12) - only in Vsevolozhsk area. For a

 

 

Increasingly attract buyers and so-called "distant problem", located 60 km from the Ring Road and beyond. Firstly, it is much more accessible with the financial side, and, secondly, suggests a more secluded and quiet holiday. Number of proposals in this sector is growing every year: 2008 - 67 projects in 2009 - 82 Project, August 2010 - 100 projects.

Regarding the composition of the proposal, and he experienced some transformation, but fully expected and predictable by many experts. Since 2010 the market came about 24 villages, offering for sale only to land without requiring a contract. Many developers are fully or partially shifted to the implementation of land within a cottage community. Today, a developer easier and faster to implement the land without a contract.

The number of settlements, which include suggestions of land holdings with a contract to build with or without him, equated to 158 the total number of projects, leading sales (294). Of these, 72 projects implemented only parts, and 86 - family houses and townhouses, in addition to the sites. Since 2009, an increase of 40% (from 113 to 158 sites).

In 176 villages in one way or another there is a proposal Cottages: 66 cottages built just as well in the 110 is a mixed development. It is worth noting that by the end of last year there were 84 such projects.

Projects, a concept which provides for implementation of townhouses, in their numerical parameters, of course, somewhat behind the previous two positions, but more stable - 50 villages (in 2009 the market was attended by about 60 such projects).

We now turn to the number of households represented in a single village (Figure 5). These indicators allow the potential buyer to assess the magnitude of the project and the privacy of future housing, and to understand how the neighbors he has to contemplate. As before, the dominant projects of up to 50 houses / plots - 55% / 227 of the object. For comparison: in 2009 - 53% / 174. With the general increase in the number of settlements, of course the percentage has not changed, indicating that the stability of demand in this segment. Nearly half - 24% / 98 - accounted for the projects, numbering 50 to 100 sites. The remaining 21% equally divided between large-scale settlements: from 100 to 200 households - 11% / 47 and 200 - 10% / 41 objects.

 

 

Among the most complex global projects appear "Granite" (862), "Peter's Gardens (745)," Kivenappa (820) and, of course, record the list - "New Izhora from" Baltros "(6000 households).

Finally, we approached the most exciting and interesting topic - the financial side of the issue.

Months, when the sales office, implementing country real estate, there was no desired activity is gradually fading. Buyer cautiously and without much hurry again became interested in buying a suburban property in the form of homes and land. The market reacts to the slightest changes in the attitudes of potential buyers. Accordingly, real estate prices began to rise again. Mostly this applies to projects in the process of active sales. Here, the rising cost can vary from 5 to 10%. Part of the settlement, on the contrary, lower prices on average by 5-15% due to additional sales promotion and raise funds for continued construction. At the same time, about 35% of homes and land have not changed in value. In part, this relates to the villages, where the situation remains stable with sales and the company has not decided to raise prices.

The main trend has not changed: the balance in matters of trust the buyer to the developer to lean toward those companies, which at the time of the transaction had time to prove itself as a reliable organization, and if the construction site did not stop the work. Adventurous shopping in unknown company, we can say, "came to naught."

By August 2010 the minimum unit cost of 1 square meter villa with a view of the adjoining land depending on the district area (Figure 6) varies from 20 thousand rubles per sq ft in Volosovsky area of 144 thousand rubles per sq ft in Primorsky District. It is worth noting that the lowest and highest rates the lowest prices for the "square" is virtually unchanged compared with the end of 2009. However, the entire curve as a whole demonstrates the emergence of a sufficient number of available offers to each of the districts. And in many areas (Vsevolozhsky Vyborg, Priozersky, Lomonosov), they are similar - 31-36 thousand rubles per sq. m.

 

At a cost of townhouses should note the following trend: the number of regions where this clause is present, has decreased. Many items sold and new ones are not in a hurry to enter the market. Developers prefer to sell or houses, or land, townhouses, also among them are not very popular. Thus, the proposal is completely absent in Volosovsky, Volkhov, Kingiseppsky, Kolpinsky, Slantsy, Tosno and Luga areas. The rest - the lowest price per square meter. meter leveled, and now there is no such weighty difference between the value of existing areas. Lowest price - in the Gatchina district (22 thousand per square meter), and high, contrary to expectations - in Petrodvortsovy (65 thousand for the quarter. m). As well known for their extremely high prices Spa and Seaside areas is now possible to find objects with minimal cost proposals - 54 thousand and 52 thousand per sq. m (Figure 7).

The minimum cost of 1 sq.m. of land in 2010 also fell in most areas of the Leningrad region. Price dispersion on this parameter greater than 1 sq. km. meter in a cottage or a townhouse. Thus, in the Volkhov area have any suggestions with minimal cost of 12 thousand rubles, and in resort areas - 80 million (Figure 8).

 

In the end, I would like to mention another fact: the market there are several dozen projects (previously announced), whose relationship with the outside world today is extremely difficult to establish. We write and call prospective buyers with the request to find contact information for these companies, but all attempts to contact them - in vain. For our part we can explain it or freeze objects, or a temporary deferral of sales. But why is it so quietly, without any warning or sending a press release, we do not understand. As a result, the buyer can only shift their focus to objects in other towns.

Source: Poselkispb.ru (the material used data from Information Portal www.poselkispb.ru to August 2010)

Author: Natalia Taran

 


Content tags: Residential Real Estate
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