Residential real estate market - stagnation





23.12.2010 13:22
Real Estate Market Analysis | Residential real estate market - stagnation  For most citizens of our country's housing-the most expensive property and the sale and purchase of apartments, the biggest deal in life. Therefore at the beginning of this year, many experts present real estate market staged a competition to predict the situation in this sector. Forecasts were so contradictory that drove customers to a screeching halt even the most open-minded Ukrainians. As a result - the entire year the market is stable stagnant, showing no significant changes in demand, supply and pricing. Positive signals were single and too weak to indicate a new trend. So that forward movement in the housing market, experts predict, will be postponed for another year, says Kiev Telegraph.

With the prefix "pre-"

"Analysis of forecasts" to start from "the basement" real estate market - from the building. Earlier this year, the realtors were promised that about half of frozen objects will finish building since spring, the developers are also cautious - they say, unless there is radical improvement in lending, the situation at the construction sites will be worse than in 2009. As of mid-autumn, Minregionstroy officially concluded that the construction market came to life: the Office expects that the December index number of the housing will reach 9.5 million square meters. m

This can not but rejoice. However, market experts are skeptical: "It is one thing - to build and quite another - to put into operation, - the head of the National Board of Realtor Chamber of Ukraine Oleksandr Bondarenko. - And since today demand a home that already obtained an act of preparedness of the object, the difference between the constructed and suitable for occupancy house is huge. Approximately throughout Ukraine this year will be put into operation about 4 million square meters. Compared with the pre-crisis year 2008, when it was put about 9 million square meters. m, we see the fall is more than twice .

True, when compared with last year, growth in number of available apartments for 9 months, according to Goskomstat, was 57%. Website builder show that in the IV quarter statistics will be even better. But this did not cause the analysts much optimism: "Indeed, the activity of putting the facilities in operation in the second half of several efforts, but it has more to do with the political component, - says Director of ARPA Real Estate Michael Artyukhov. - Usually the impending change of government, and in this case the local elections, spurring developers to commission their own projects. Therefore, the statistics the second half will be more positive, but it's not the real picture. Objectively retained last year's trend: big companies that have a portfolio started several construction projects, focused on one or at most two sites in parallel construction. "

According to Mr. Artyukhova, key in the console market situation - the "pre-". All developers tend to complete construction, finish, doprodavat. At today recorded a single case of the new building from scratch, laying the foundation can only near the new buildings nearby.

However, there are positive signs: the indirect information from subcontractors on the market in the ARPA Real Estate concluded that some homes that are in the initial phase of construction, are beginning to be considered as potential sites for sale. With a little exaggeration it can be called a measure of market recovery, but a new trend has to be successfully concluded at least a few deals.

In this case, officials already hard claim that next year's construction business will receive a new stage of development. Thanks to the "single window", stated in the new draft law "On regulation of urban development, the number of licensing procedures will be reduced from 93 to 23, from which the investor will need to make only 9 steps, and the deadline for receipt of all required permits be reduced from 415 to 60 days. This will increase the volume of construction, to attract additional investment into the country, reduce corruption in the industry and reduce the cost of a square meter, according to Minregionstroy.

What's New?

Catastrophic collapse in market prices of primary real estate, the buyer, with bated breath, and personal savings are waiting for two years, this year again has not happened. Moreover, the Union of Real Estate Specialists of Ukraine claim that the price bottom, "primary cell" was held in the spring of 2009, and since then the new housing in Ukraine has risen in price by an average of 5-10%. True, if we take the statistics from the beginning of this year, prices in the new building came down again.So, according to information-analytical portal "Capital estate" in Kiev for the first 10 months of flat economy-fell 2.7%, business class - on 1,8% premium - by 10,5%.However, at the same time, experts say, the dynamics stops.

According to Michael Artyukhov price drop occurred only on those sites, where prices have not been adjusted in accordance with the market crisis. That they can "get to the surface as an example of a point cheapening" the primary. " In addition, it is no secret that a large part of the proposals the Internet - so-called junk listings that do not have under a real reason. Nevertheless, the common fund, and they fall on the statistics of impact, forcing people to believe in the myth of "yedinichku for $ 20 thousand."

As a result - the demand has remained at virtually the same level. At the busiest - the capital - a market "the primary" in the month averaged 200-250 transactions occurred.According to the calculations of Mr Artyukhova, in Kiev, now offered for sale at least 10 thousand apartments. Accurate data do not, although experts agree that this figure could be 2-3 times more.

But "in line for hot cakes," no one gets. Despite the fact that since September metropolitan realtors expected recovery in demand by 10%, these predictions did not materialize. Potential buyers are really began more active interest in the possibility of purchasing property and did not deny myself the pleasure of going to the views, but on the number of actual transactions are not affected.

However, some developers are now confidently say about the growth in sales. "This fall, the number of customers who have applied to sales," Yugozaptransstroya (YUZTS) increased by 40% compared to the summer period, while sales over the same period last year rose six-fold - voiced by the dynamics of sales representative YUZTS Denis Galitsin . - Forecasts of some market experts about the collapse of prices of primary residential real estate did not keep the real buyers who are currently rated as the best time to buy "the primary."

As for predictions, then, according to our analytical services in the first half of 2011, the trend of a slight change in the price per square meter in the direction of its increase. This is what those developers, who this year introduced its facilities in operation, in parallel increasing the cost per square meter on average by 7-15%.

On the future rise in price of "new squares" and warns Michael Artyukhov: "First, housing becomes more expensive to objectively measure how the building moving. At the foundation stage the buyer can save on the risks, but finished flat on the fact more expensive. Therefore, 10-15% - a real forecast a price increase on those objects which are being completed within the next year. Secondly, the sentence "the primary" a couple of years will be limited to freezing of many housing projects. If demand increases, we can expect a corresponding reaction of developers. "

Repetition

Forecasts of the situation in the secondary market at the beginning of the year generally showed "confusion and vacillation": some experts thought likely housing price hike of 10-12% (and economy-class apartments - generally up to 20-25%) of the predicted drop in prices by 10-25 %. "The overall market showed a decrease of price queries Sellers - analyzes Alexander Bondarenko. - Actual results for today, for example, on the Kiev market," secondary housing: cheaper housing by 20% compared with the beginning of the year. In January, the average price for " Used Square fluctuated at a level of $ 2 thousand for the quarter. m, the average sales price now shows $ 1.6 thousand

Approximately the same situation in many regions of the country, except in a few cities, in particular, Odessa and Donetsk, which showed minimal growth during the year. And even he was not smooth, but abrupt, and therefore can not be considered a tendency. "

It is characteristic that the dynamics remained stable against the backdrop of weak demand, emphasizes Mr. Bondarenko. The actual number of transactions in the market at the moment - it is about 10% of the volume, which was common for realtors in the pre-crisis time. Even a gradual depreciation of the proposals (according to EA, "Planet Obolon, from the beginning of the crisis the most expensive proposal," secondary housing - Capital - has fallen in price by 45%) not triggered the burst of buying activity, despite the fact that the potential number of people who need to improve housing conditions or at least buy a first apartment, our country is large enough.

Now a potential buyer of second homes account for about 20-30 apartments that are offered for sale. This statistic as the capital and regional markets. Hope that next year's proposals will decline, realtors are not advised. Moreover, at the end of this year promise to further gradual fall in the value of such property.

"Permanent low demand clearly leads to the fact that prices in the secondary housing market next year will fall more, - Alexander Bondarenko. - This is recognized by the vast majority of experts, the expenses only in the estimates of incidence. Optimists forecast range at the level of reduction within 10% , the pessimists predict 30% fall in the price. A realistic forecast - the golden mean: the order of 15-20%, just the same as this year. "

According to Mr. Bondarenko, "The groundwork for a fall" is. Traditionally, the price difference between primary and secondary market is about 20% in favor of the primary - due to the risks that the buyer gets together with the house, had not yet entered into service. In the economy segment of housing under construction in Kiev, now you can meet the bid price at around $ 1-1,2 thousand for the quarter. m, hence, the average price of the "secondary Square in Kiev should be around $ 1,2-1,4 thousand of simple arithmetic: to reduce the cost of next year is another $ 200-400 reserve. Just in time for this amount is projected to fall and price, "secondary housing in Kyiv. Similarly, we can analyze the situation in most other major cities in Ukraine.

True, the demand for "an apartment from the owner, according to experts, just like to repeat the current momentum (or more precisely - a complete lack of it). "Despite the fact that the real demand for residential property in Ukraine is high, many people simply can not afford to buy an apartment - explains Denis Galitsin. - Start lending programs with conditions close to pre-crisis, would be a real incentive for the restoration of the property market, where accumulated pent-up demand for housing, formed last year or two. However, to date, the share of mortgage transactions in the market is still small. "

Slowly and hesitantly ...

Thesis about the absence of housing credit has been half a year trying to destroy the banks. Here and there, there are messages from the category: "This year, the country's financial institutions have reduced the average effective interest rate on mortgages at 6% down payment - 10%, and the loan term extended to 10 years."Indeed, according to the October number of Ukrainian banks have to lower interest rates on mortgage loans up to 17% annually in local currency.

Currently, there are already cases decline to 15%. But while this is not reflected in the average market rate, which is still in the range of 20-24% annually in local currency. It is also not reflected in the volume of lending: the beginning of the year throughout the camp of mortgage loans issued by slightly less than 100 mln. That, in comparison with the total portfolio of banks in this segment (more than 80 bln.) - Just a ridiculous figure .

"What is now called a residential lending - is kvaziipoteka, and the mass of millet on the product will not be, - Alexander Bondarenko. - Even 15%, not to mention the 20% per annum - a lot for our compatriots. In the Ukrainian Economy normal price long-term money should be within 11% per annum for a period of not less than 20 years. Only in this case it would be a loan to buy an apartment, not a pit of debt. "

"Today, banks are trying not to work with the primary housing - analyzes the Director of Marketing Retail VAB Bank Anton Shaperenkov. - First, the risk nevvedeniya house in operation, and secondly, limited demand. More actively finance the" secondary housing, but the dynamics of throughout the year to evaluate hard.

If we consider that banks enter this market is inactive, it can be concluded that the demand is narrow and focused mainly on finished housing, which is actually a property right. Indirectly, we can estimate the demand for primary housing - for those objects where the banks were one of the sides of building (to create funds financing the construction or funded by the object at the expense of loans granted to developers). While on these sites, despite the fact that it offered the most interesting credit terms, sales were also minor. "

Mr Shaperenkov sure: if you extend the moratorium on foreign currency lending, even at a floating rate of 15% per annum (which is in the best case) the banks will not be able to make this product very competitive. Is that the developers agree to participate in affiliate programs on the basis of how the dealers today.

Under such arrangements may offer lower rates and advances, if the developer will offer compensation for lost income to the bank rate and upload it risks. But last year, as such, proposals for such facilities did not exist, except for one or two banks, and then only because the bank was involved financing the construction of houses.

True, today's financial market there are relatively new ways to buy a square meter.One of them - buying an apartment, including in construction sites, using a mortgage.According to the legal definition, a mortgage in this case - a debt instrument, which reaffirms the right of its owner on the subject of the mortgage contract and record debt. No more. That is elementary buyer can not affect the construction company in the construction of the house, can not claim they had received information about the work done or about the possible risks.

"Despite the fact that the mortgage is secured by a real estate under construction, it does not give its owner the right to a shelter - Lawyer warns of" Vasil Kisil & Partners Natalia Dotsenko-Belous. - This just means that the landlord in case of non-construction can count on the cost of housing, which is specified in the document.

And even then, if the building has stopped, the buyer goes through all stages of litigation and enforcement proceedings. You should also remember that the subprime mortgage agreement can not be replaced. Signing the contract on the mortgage and issuing a mortgage, the two sides relations are involved in more problems and troubles. For example, change the size of the principal obligation, interest or issue a new mortgage should be displayed in the document, which carries additional organizational costs.

Since mortgages are available on the forms of strict accountability, and their replacement by reason of loss is problematic. This issue is still not fully resolved and remains open. It is particularly difficult to recover the mortgage, which is several times transferred from one owner to another. "
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Content tags: Property Housing
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