Real estate prices: forecasts for the coming year





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20.01.2011 14:53
Real Estate Market Analysis | Real estate prices: forecasts for the coming year Prices in the domestic real estate market in 2011, and in 2010, as a whole, spikes will not commit. At the same time in different market segments will experience price movements in different directions: both up - in the most popular economy class and certain types of expensive real estate, both up and down - in other sectors. This general conclusion follows from the comments of the respondents Vestyami.Ru experts.

By definition, the general director of real estate agency MIAN Basil Mitko, in the short term is not seen no objective reasons for lowering prices on the Russian real estate market, or to accelerate their growth. It is true that metropolitan housing will continue to rise in price, but rather a moderate pace - depending on the overall situation in the Russian economy and the solvency of its population, said Mitko Vestyam.Ru. According to him, last year's real estate prices in Moscow, on average, rose to 166,300 rubles per square meter, or by 12,5% in the primary market and up to 155.3 thousand (9.6%) in the secondary market. In the suburbs they grew, respectively, to 77.2 thousand (6.9%) and 71.8 thousand (3.5%). And in 2011 is projected to increase by 10-15%, with perhaps more significant growth in the segment of economy class.

However, as noted Vestyam.Ru head of the analytical center "Indicators of Real Estate Market" (Earn) Oleg Repchenko, in 2010, the price dynamics of the metropolitan housing market looked very uneven. For example, the most democratic proposals on housing, economy class for the year rose at a price of 70-80 rubles per square meter to 100 thousand rubles. The overall price increase in this segment amounted to about 10%, and a number of objects - 15-25%. Have also reported an increase in the prices of expensive real estate objects, which were unique to the domestic market or with optimal price / quality ratio and the absence of flaws. And since most of the objects of business and elite class did not meet these parameters (resulting in the market even have new terms like "quasi-business class), they are mainly implemented at a discount, while actually reducing the originally stated prices by 10-20%.

That is, we can say that, overall, in 2010 prices for Moscow real estate have not changed, although the individual segments and recorded a significant increase of that balances the reduction in other sectors, summed Repchenko. According to him, characteristic for the whole of Russia, these trends will continue in the market and in the current year. In particular, it can be added to the price of economy-class quality - up to 5-15%. As for the bad quality of the old economy-class housing on the secondary market, the price for it, or will remain stable or decline as a result of trade by 5-15%. For a fall, obviously, will play the price and in all segments of the business and the elite class (except for certain unique objects without gaps), in which the discount will be at least 15-20%. Thus, the domestic market gradually began to turn to the consumer, to a greater extent than before, due to its real needs and the contents of the purse.

However, the result is referred to the process to ensure that, consistent with the level of solvency of the majority of Russians have started to decrease prices at the most affordable real estate to them?

Such a development is possible with increasing the volume of housing construction, which could also contribute to the government promised to reduce the number of administrative barriers in the construction sector and providing greater transparency in the allocation of land plots for development, said the head of Earn. In this case, first of all, he explained, the government should encourage growth in supply, not increased demand (including through the development of the mortgage) - reverse the order will inevitably lead to a new round of prices.

Today, high expectations are associated with increased urban development policy, reaffirmed Vestyam.Ru first vice-president of Capital Group Valentine Stanovova. As you know, she continued, opacity developer market due to the continuing cautious attitude to him by investors. And if they set clear rules of the game, this posodeystvuet investment and the introduction of more loyal mortgage lending by banks. But, of course, for a similar practical effect in such a complex multi area like development, can be expected only in the medium term. This year, the principal changes in the market proposals are not expected. Over the past two years, construction volumes decreased significantly. And companies that have taken in 2010, the opportunity to send profits to development, were one. As a result, the elite class of objects that meet all necessary criteria, it remains a bit. And you can predict that their prices will increase by 15-20% with an overall 15-percent growth in economy and business classes, suggested the first vice-president of Capital Group, which, we note, specializes in expensive real estate.

In turn, the general director of the agency "Math", on the contrary, assured that a significant reduction in supply during the current year is not expected, as demand will be met by a sufficient number of new projects announced. Moreover, the proposals on the secondary market in the capital in the spring of 2011 are able to reach historic highs in the 45-50 thousand apartments (in 2010 there was exhibited 35,000 apartments "secondary" market).

And in the Penza region, according to CEO Vestyam.Ru LLC Irrigation Office in the city of Penza, Vladimir Vodkin, falling demand in the crisis is still inferior to the proposal. And now interested in the speedy implementation of the objects, the builders of the region are guided by the price level of 26 rubles per square meter, which appears in state programs for housing obspecheniyu military and veterans. Formally, the last year prices on the regional market have not changed, but in practice, real estate went out with considerable discounts. And in 2011, it seems, the price level even decrease slightly. "For ordinary people buying apartments until one of the priority urgent problems" - concluded Vodkin.

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