Property-2011 in the forecasts and commentary

15.01.2011 00:00
Real Estate Market Analysis | Property-2011 in the forecasts and commentary The past year for the housing market was relatively calm. But many of the 2011 waiting for change. Vendors expect a rise in prices, and buyers - to reduce them. Therefore, potential homebuyers continue to hope for a "second wave" of the crisis, which has cut prices on property. Vendors also expect that will work in full force and mortgage rates go up, so sometimes, and not in a hurry to sell the apartment. "Owner" learned from the experts how they see the scenario of the real estate market in 2011.

Krapina Alexander, CEO of analytical agency RWAY:

thoughtful man "in Russia in late 2010 adopted a program of mass construction of housing for the period 2011-2015, which focuses on low-rise construction, and personal responsibility of heads of regions for the implementation of targets. Although the program in the conventional business sense, this document is difficult to call. It is rather a declaration of intent with the personal responsibility of senior officials for the achievement of targets in terms of housing in each region.

Related article: Devaluation expectations hit the housing market in the capital

To truly become a business program, more research is needed, which should be:

- Specify the source data
- Clarify the real needs of the population in the housing at an acceptable business and household levels, prices,
- Identify ways to solve problems to increase the volume of housing construction in each region with the support measures of the federal, sub-federal and municipal authorities.

This whole complex of measures is not possible without the involvement of authorities in the system of market regulation, which should ensure the availability of economy class housing for most households in our country. Federal authorities since the last quarter of 2010 has significantly strengthened efforts to regulate the housing market in our country. In this case, the main vector of federal initiatives aimed at reducing the ultimate cost of economy class housing. This process will largely determine and general price trends in the housing market in coming years.

At the meeting held on 16 August 2010, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said: "We must not allow the emergence of different kinds of bubbles, distortions, when the development of mortgages and stimulate the demand went by themselves, have evolved quite rapidly, vigorously, and the volume of construction new housing, power, building materials industry is clearly lagging behind. So now we think it is crucial competent development strategy, to calculate the situation in a few steps forward to create an effective, balanced structure of demand and supply, to ensure stability of the housing market, and hence the actual affordability of housing for the vast majority of citizens. "

Power will have on the market regulating effect, since all will have to be built primarily to sell. Effective demand should grow over 5 years at least 50%, otherwise the construction does not sell. General rate policy will be to reduce prices. But there is inflation, not only in our country, but in the world, it will make its contribution, and retard the process. "

Leonid Muravin, Deputy Director General, Academy of Sciences "Triumphal Arch":

"I do not agree with the assessment of 2010 as a quiet period. In my opinion, this year can be called what else, but not calm. We know that this year has been very generous to unforeseen events that have made major changes in the structure of demand and supply of capital property.

The first half of 2010 - a difficult period of getting the economy out of a deep financial crisis. From January to May of 2010 the real estate market shifted from a state of stagnation, which is characteristic for the end of 2009, the state of normal activity. Transition - it is always the beginning of a new vector of development. This usually happens is not as painless as we'd like. With all the positive assessments of this situation, it should be noted that buyers are faced with several challenges.

It is very important that from the first months of the year began to revive the mortgage. Now you can purchase a house with borrowed funds. Banks have lowered the bar, and the number of so-called mortgage deals has increased. Money that came from buyers, forced them to be active. People rushed to Moscow and looking for housing that satisfies the relation of price and quality, and not always to be found. Why? First, buy a particular inning. The crisis hit hard by the construction industry, and the choice of new buildings was not rich. Secondary market immediately reacted swiftly by strong growth in prices. Shoppers in late May lurk, not wanting to overpay and go on about the aggressive actions of vendors, weekly rewriting price tags. Consuming activity subsided.

There was a long-awaited summer. No one imagined that it would be the same as it was. Wild heat in combination with smoke and fumes caused many people to leave the city. In stores and on the streets of the capital became fewer and fewer people. In Moscow, stopped traffic jams. May buy or sell housing was simply no one. Most of the real estate market participants were engaged in only one: they had to survive this disaster unscathed. And so it continued virtually until the end of August.

In September, when the terrible summer already behind, the market started and revived. Clearly traced factor "pent-up demand." But as it turned out, not for long. Since mid-September began, "mayoral passion." Scandalous televised, statements by politicians of various levels concerning emergency led to the resignation of Luzhkov easily predictable consequences. Buyers, on the one hand, a few decided to postpone the housing issue, but on the other hand, they have become to expect from the new mayor of steps aimed at reducing the cost of housing capital. The more so in the media intensively fed information about the corruption component in determining the price of Moscow apartments.

But everything has its beginning and its end. Including the period of uncertainty. All quickly fell into place. The old mayor was fired, the new mayor was appointed. And he showed himself quite clearly. It became clear to all, without exception, that it is pointless to wait at sea the weather, no collapse of prices is not expected, for free distribution of square meters will not happen. And time goes by, children grow up, people get married, gave birth to their children, and life goes on. That is necessary to solve their housing problems here and now. Do not hesitate to better times. Under this sign are November and December. Activity of people is high. Every day we show customers hundreds of apartments to choose from. Processed and recorded the transaction, and in the end realtors handed the keys to a happy new settlers coveted apartments.

What can we say about the prospects? Most likely, everything will develop positively. The new mayor - quite a pragmatic person and very competent manager. It effectively solves the complex issues of urban development, its position is active. People see it and calmly try to resolve their housing situation in accordance with the features and capabilities of the market, and rely on its resources.

With regard to projections for prices, they must without jerks and falls to show a calm steady growth. Perhaps 10 to 15% per year. I am therefore optimistic about the coming new year. I am confident that 2011 will be the first incomparably more successful for everyone who has thought of solving their housing problems. "

Maria Zhukova, deputy director of MIEL-Rent ":

"When the beginning of September 2010 the urban rental market is not satisfied, it became clear that the crisis is finally over. Prices of municipal lease in October stopped the nearly five-month increase, on average the projected growth in the previous 15%. In this case, demand indicators and December are high enough to exceed the peak values as of 2008, and 2009.

In the future, I think everything will evolve according to the scenario of 2010. Minor fluctuations of plus or minus 2-3% before the "high season" for rental market and seasonal growth in the range of 10-15%. Thus, summing up the year, we can say that the market returned to its usual state, in 2010 was more active than expected. We are optimistic about the future, which is why at the end of the year, the company "MIEL-Rent" opened another branch. "

Vladimir Tribrat, marketing director of the Civil Code "Pioneer":

"There will be a smooth growth in the range of inflation. The average price ranges are possible inflation outstripping growth rates due to leaching of the most liquid apartments in successful projects, as well as increased mortgage lending. Buyers have already realized that wait for the second floor is not worth it. And the developers - that the return to growth in housing prices the period 2005-2008 will not be. In general, a balance of interests of buyers and sellers. "

Nicholas Tyulenev, CEO of the Academy of Sciences "Seven Hills":

"I do not see any prerequisites for significant changes in the property market in 2011. General trends that emerged in the past year, in my opinion, will remain. The prevailing view of transactions will buy apartments in the lower price category, more than half of which is leveraged funds. In second place will exchange for a little better (with a one-room) lodging, and in most cases involving loans.
Buyers of apartments for middle-price category will continue to sit on the fence, reacting only with a known liquid options and proposals with a sizeable discount. Sellers of investment projects will also exhibit their wares on the market only when necessary. First of all, will be sold nakuplennye once new buildings without finishing, because they are unsuitable for low-rent. Continue incipient in the past two years the trend of gradual reduction of prices for apartments that are less than three years in the property sellers are not ready to specify in the contract of sale the full cost. This is especially true of apartments, obtained by inheritance. Having the opportunity to select a buyer today is no longer willing to hold relatively risky deal, even for the sake of higher consumer quality apartments. Effect a gradual increase in legal literacy, and the results of educational work done in this direction by professional market participants - realtors.

Dmitry Ovsyannikov, CEO IPOTEK.RU:

"Caution is the market participants, especially consumers, is the lack of a clear understanding of what will happen next in the overall economy and the real estate market in particular.

Before the crisis, housing purchased with investment purposes or to stay. And often use credit facilities. Now the investment purchases are practically absent, since it is unknown whether the price increase and by how much. This autumn showed that the housing market at the present time, little is predictable.

For purchases on credit money needs stability and the understanding that the economy has recovered, which is not a situation where you can lose work and, as a consequence, wages and opportunities to service their loan obligations. Such confidence in the population there. That's why people take out loans carefully, and do not invest in real estate for profit. And even if you want to buy property for themselves, prefer not to risk it. That is why, unlike the pre-crisis years, a large portion of loans denominated and the average loan size is smaller than before the crisis.

Another aspect - the lack of speculative buying. Previously, buyers seriously, "urged" a permanent price increase or its perspective. Therefore, as soon as there were something more or less appropriate, tried to make a deal until you become more expensive. Today they can not afford not to hurry up and choose.

Most likely, the caution of market participants will attend the real estate market in the first half of next year:
- Buyers when deciding on the purchase of an apartment will not hurry, take a long time to look and choose;
- Borrowers in obtaining loans from banks will be taking mostly denominated loans;
- Banks when issuing loans will be quite cautious and seriously check borrowers.

Earlier this year, the real estate market in Moscow, most likely, we are waiting for a slight decrease in prices for apartments. Decrease is not strong, up 10.5% from the level of current prices by May 2011. And what will happen after May, difficult to say: scripts can be diametrically opposed. Mortgage rates continue to decline, but the rate of decrease in rates would be negligible. Most likely, the loan rates will decline by only 1 percentage point per year, which is consistent with the size and rate of decline in rates in 2010. "

Vladimir Yakhontov, managing partner Miel - Residential Real Estate:

"Reduction in prices is not expected. According to my forecast for 2011 inflation will increase, which would entail an increase in consumer prices, as well as real estate. Prices will increase by 5-15%, and cheaper than now, real estate will be gone. Communication in recent years grew by 50%, so even though desheveyuschuyu land ownership price falls. Now developers are working with low profit margins, and because the bottom of the crisis passed, they will seek to return to pre-crisis margin - up to 40%. Therefore, from this side, too, there are no preconditions for falling prices. Thus, we can only advise to buy the land now - will not be cheaper. "

Sergei Ryabchikov, executive director of the Credit Centre Real Estate, GRMO:

"Already in the databases of Realtors missing most marketable apartment. And although the total supply is still higher than before the crisis, the nomenclature presented apartment leaves much to be desired. This will certainly lead to higher prices for 1-2-bedroom apartments in the secondary market and handed over new buildings with the evidence.

But growth will not be a runaway for the following reason. In the hope that the crisis is over, entered the market en masse developers, waited Time of Troubles. The volume of deals in houses under construction at the construction stage at times exceeded the capacity of the market. In these houses until the commissioning can not speak about any price increases. Therefore, in the secondary market for apartments exceeds a certain psychological barrier they just completely stop buying, seeking funds for the purchase of new buildings. "

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