Primary real estate market 2011: trends and forecasts

27.11.2010 16:55
Real Estate Market Analysis | Primary real estate market 2011: trends and forecasts Nearing the end of the year, and many analysts predicted rise in prices for Moscow real estate has not occurred. Moreover, prices for primary market of Moscow region are falling-from the beginning, the average price of 1 square. m fell in November by 6%. BBC News asked the experts on the preliminary results and prospects of the market.

In 2010, sales of new buildings in the Moscow region has increased in comparison with 2009, four times. The demand has shifted to the budget real estate - one-and two-bedroom apartment buildings in Moscow region and in the flats a small area.

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In Moscow continues "washout" the best deals, so competition in the Moscow region between developers has increased. According to the company Miel, 2009 was a year of pent-up demand and savings, and in 2010 became a year of restoration of consumer demand and revive sales.

"The main trend of the market of new buildings in the Moscow region this year has been the shift in consumer preferences when buying a flat in the direction of low cost purchases. Maximum number of transactions in the new buildings of Moscow has real estate worth from 4.8 million to 10 million rubles and the maximum number of transactions in the new buildings of Moscow region - property value between 3 million to 6.5 million rubles. increased the demand for apartments and small area apartments for sale. There was a shift in demand in the suburbs: about 60% of transactions occurs in the region, 40% - in the capital. From the beginning, an increasing proportion of mortgage deals - from 5% in January to 36% in November, the total number of transactions the company ", - said CEO Miel - New Maria Litinetskaya.

The market of new Moscow marked decrease in the average area of apartments in the segment of economy and business class. Average prices for apartments in new buildings from January increased slightly, by November, the cost per square meter has increased on average by 5% and amounted to 190.3 thousand rubles.

However, the primary market of Moscow region prices are falling. Since the beginning of the year the average price of 1 square. m decreased by 6% in November amounted to 64,571 rubles. In Moscow, the fraction of prefabricated construction, new buildings decreases the average area of apartments.

Nearing the end of the year, and many analysts predicted rise in prices for Moscow real estate has not occurred. "The macroeconomic situation is not the same. It is noteworthy that if the dollar price index for apartments in Moscow and even shows a slight, but growing, the ruble prices just headway. The average cost per square meter in rubles and not get outside of the corridor 135 -140 thousand. Against this backdrop, even an increase in dollar prices fall at 1% per month looks pretty weak - as a compensation of inflation, at best, but no more "- the head of the analytical portal Oleg Repchenko.

In his view, the possibility of further price increases for apartments is missing, rather the opposite. Results of sales in October show the transition of real estate market to stagnate.

Before the new year sales are likely to mark a surge of activity among buyers, but it will happen in New discounts and sales. And this is what awaits the real estate prices in Moscow and Russia next year - an interesting question.

"It should be noted here at that. Post-crisis recovery of real estate market began to appear in late summer 2009, the fall of 2009 after a significant drop in prices finally began to grow. Causes of recovery are clear: the need for housing people will not go away. Entered the market buyers, who in previous years could not keep up with rising prices, they changed their buyers, investors and the narrow stratum of top managers and executives. Basically, it's people who buy housing for themselves and resource constraints, because of which the sale of real estate after crisis has become very sensitive to price, "- said Repchenko.

The question arises: how long pent-up demand? After all, "alternativschiki" which, in fact, involved in this exchange, money market does not bring. This means that property prices are now determined by those who are willing to buy an apartment for a "live" money.

According to Repchenko, count the number of such buyers is difficult, but it is clear that their number is limited and gradually diminishing. The market can not rely on buyers to pre-crisis accumulation, and real disposable income, according to the Federal State Statistics Service, down from August.

"Post-crisis recovery of the market due to pent-up demand lasts about 14-15 months. By February 2011, when the real estate market after the New Year will determine the direction of further movement from the beginning of recovery will be almost half of the year. Time for the real estate market quite considerable, to have time peter out and the stronger tendency ", - considers Repchenko.

As an example he cited the most dramatic rise in price of Moscow real estate in 2006, which began in the late summer of 2005 and ended in the beginning of stagnation in late 2006 - early 2007, that is after just a year and a half after the start of market recovery. House price growth in 2003 began with a weakening dollar. Ended this phase of stagnation beginning in the late spring - early summer of 2004, ie after about 15 months.

"In other words, the current post-crisis recovery of real estate market and the associated partial recovery in prices has already lasted just enough to fizzle out. Therefore, the arrival of another, at least, a temporary stagnation in the early 2011 seems increasingly possible," - concluded Repchenko.

According to the Federal State Statistics Service, in Russia for ten months of housing put into operation area of 37,700,000 square meters. m, which is 5% lower than the same period last year. Logically, the lack of housing market and increased demand should lead to an increase in property prices, but this did not happen. Moreover, prices of "frozen" at the beginning of the year and in many regions even began to decline.

According to Miel, the number of metropolitan apartments for sale, has grown over the last month on 7,8%, to 48 thousand objects. According to the company "Inkom-real estate - by 5,2% to 52,5 thousand objects. This record performance for the year.

"All these data suggest that sellers no longer rely on rising prices and try to sell the property to" peak. "The same thing happened with the housing market before the crisis of 2008" - said the expert of the capital real estate center Alexei Beketov. According to him, but in October the average cost per square meter in U.S. dollars fell by 6,3%, prices in rubles is also reduced.

It is time to make a distinction between price and exposed the real price of real estate, stressed Beketov. "When it comes to the real buyer, in the course are" opaque "pricing, it is known to all experts. Let us put up an apartment for sale for 5 million rubles. However, the real buyer is a cruel war. He is willing to provide a substantial discount of 5 million rubles. Now discounts can reach up to 10-20%, otherwise the apartment hangs a long time if not forever, "- said Beketov.

This kind of discounts are not included in official statistics, there are only exhibited price. But it discounts are talking about the true situation and the real effective demand. Beketov believes that property prices are "ripe" for fall, because the size of undeclared discount increases. "Everything is going exactly the same as before the crisis in the property market in 2008" - concluded Beketov
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