Moscow real estate market continues to show signs of stagnation

03.08.2011 10:45
Real Estate Market Analysis | Moscow real estate market continues to show signs of stagnation At the end of the second month of summer, the Moscow real estate market continues to show signs of stagnation rather than recovery. Increase the cost of housing for July was minimal, with most of it came in expensive apartments, which is not a sign of acceleration of the market, but rather the opposite - stabilization. And even the ambitious plans for a major expansion of Moscow, as well as the associated hype so far failed to cause significant price rally.

According to the analytical center, the index value of housing in Moscow in July added 1.3%, up from $ 4.986 marks per square meter to $ 5.051 per square meter. On the one hand, the index seems to overcome the psychological barrier of the next $ 5,000. On the other - just around the dollar mark the points often become long-stabilization in housing prices, as noted in an article entitled "Round the numbers stabilize the property market." Moreover, an increase of 1% per month is nothing more than acting out of inflation and growth in ruble prices for apartments in Moscow, according to statistics of the journal, is even less.

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Also notable price movements in July, according to the types of accommodation: the largest in the black are mostly expensive segment, surpassing the growth rate of economy-housing. As has been repeatedly noted the analytical center "Indicators of housing market", these dynamics indicate the period of stagnation. (See in this regard a detailed article "Expensive and low-income housing: the index bundle of the real estate market"). So, with an average growth rate for July 2011 of 1.3% growth in value index of "expensive" housing (20% of the most expensive apartments) was 2.3%, and "affordable" housing (20% of the cheapest apartments), only 1 1%.

In terms of room flat in July, the highest increase in the largest apartment - three rooms and multi-room. According to the types of houses in the lead, "the Soviet elite" - Stalin and tsekovskie at home, at the next position - the modern-wall housing.

By location finally pulls ahead in the rate of growth in apartment prices is the most expensive Central District - in July it at 1 place. It is noteworthy that all the previous months, the increase in prices in the capital was on average or even below average, despite strong statements of the authorities to ban construction within the TTC, which would seem, was to spur demand and prices. Second to the center in July was the South-West district, and an outsider - North-West District and Eastern District.

With regard to areas of Moscow scatter price increase in July was larger. Among the leaders there are many expensive and prestigious areas, such as Yakimanka Novokuznetskaya Glade, Tretyakov, Clean Ponds, Turgenev, Red Gate, Komsomolskaya, Sretensky Boulevard, Frunze, Sports, Khamovniki, Arbat Street, South West, Krylatskoe. But there is in the lead and inexpensive parts, such as printers, Kurkino, Zelenograd, Marfino, Petrovsko-Razumovskaya Vladykino.

As an outsider gains in housing prices more affordable areas, such as Otradnoe, Youth, Kuzminki, textile workers, Beskudnikovsky, Eastern Degunino, West Degunino, Dmitrovsky, Chertanovo South, Prague, Academy Street Yangel, Annino, Teply Stan, May Day, Ismail. Although there are a number of more expensive areas: Academic, Kiev, Student, Kutuzov, Victory Park, Dorogomilovo.

In July of macroeconomic intrigue associated with the uncertainty of the total vector of the global economy and the threat of a repetition of the crisis, and added one more plot. We are talking about Moscow's plans to expand by 2.5 times, which is not made to wait long for a lot of different emotions, opinions and comments. In particular, the journal in "New Frontiers in Moscow on the map. A flurry of new construction buyers has fallen by the sellers. Investment interest returns to the segment of new construction "has led many statements of experts, predicts a significant rise in prices of real estate as the new territories, and in expressing strong doubts.

Analytical Center offers each IRN.RU ask yourself a simple question: if the whole of Russia to join Moscow, it will grow anywhere if the price of the property before the Moscow level? Obviously not. So expect a substantial price increase in the "New Moscow" only on the basis of plans and declarations are unlikely to be. Yes, within 10% of the prices may well grow up on the emotions and at the expense of the investment component, but hardly more. But to catch up to the Moscow price level can be new territory only when the real action to integrate them in the capital: the creation of transport networks, infrastructure and other attributes of the Moscow standard of living. But it is also obvious that all these steps even with a favorable scenario will take 5-10 years, no less.

Moreover, if all the plans and declarations on the expansion of Moscow will start to slip, then grown on a wave of emotions right now the prices of apartments, land, cottages, country houses and then have every chance to slide the price back down. Moreover, in case of deterioration of the macroeconomic background, or a repeat of the financial crisis is a poorly risen in price on expectations of real estate will be the less stable in price. By the way, it behaved as real estate in Sochi in 2008, on the eve of inadequately risen in price in the wake of the Olympic hype, but most of all, more than 50%, having fallen in price in the crisis. (Read more about such cases in the article "Holiday romances developers.")

Nevertheless, the greatest benefit from joining the capital can get closest to the Moscow area. North and South Butovo Butovo are no longer considered - and they recently joined to Moscow and largely incorporated into it by its own branch of the subway, but because the cost of housing there and a little inferior to residential districts within the Ring Road (see the rating area on the prices of flats) . But for the inclusion in the capital Shcherbinka finally put an end to the long-standing conflict of identity. Major cities of the satellite, adjacent to Moscow, in this direction is not (apparently, this cause and played for the choice of these particular areas). Will there be included in Troitsk Moscow and Podolsk - a moot point.

So the main benefit has, in fact, on summer residences and cottages, located in the Kaluga road, the Kiev highway and the Warsaw highway. And also the "great land" the big landowners, who in this sector, perhaps more than most. It is therefore natural to believe that landlords, as well as lend their banks are primarily interested in state assistance for the development of these "podvisshih" land.

If you talk about "Old Moscow", the expansion of the boundaries of the capital in the medium term, should play in lowering the cost of housing, or at least curb its rate of growth in the future. The main reason - the emergence of large areas, the active development of which may eliminate the housing shortage in Moscow. Moreover, eviction of outside Moscow officials to release in the central parts of Moscow's huge number of institutional buildings, which may for many years to ensure the supply and the segment of luxury housing and office centers segment. But it is short supply all the previous years was the main cause of inflated prices for real estate in Moscow. This fact is well illustrated in the article "Why real estate prices dropped by a third, rather than 3-fold due to the crisis of 2008."

Anyway, for all new plans and prospects of the issues there are more questions than answers, and hence in terms of prices for Moscow real estate in the short to medium term "pendulum" swing can be as one and the other side. To achieve greater clarity regarding the development of the capital and Moscow real estate market in the foreseeable future, an analytical center IRN.RU held an online conference, in which apart from their own experts took part in the Moscow City Duma deputy Mikhail Moskvin-Tarkhanov, president of the "Institute for Urban Economics" Hope Kosarev, as well as representatives of the leading property developers. Their answers can be found in the article "New Moscow: utopia or real way to solve the problems of the city?".
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