Metropolitan housing-2011: five major issues





18.01.2011 14:26
Real Estate Market Analysis | Metropolitan housing-2011: five major issues And the prices, and active buyers in the new year will be close to last year.

The past year has brought the capital's housing market is no revolutionary changes. However, experts, summarizing, gave different estimates. Thus, analysts of group of companies "Planet Obolon characterized the real estate market in Kiev in 2010 as a deep systemic crisis. Was less categorical in their judgments the President of the Union of Real Estate Specialists of Ukraine Alexander Rubanov: "2010 may soon be called the year of stagnation," writes today.

However, there were those who talked about the stabilization and early development. "If 2009 was held under the motto" adapt and survive ", the 2010-th can be considered a year of stabilization, - the general director of the Academy of Sciences" Blagovest Irina Lukhanin.

Someone will object: a subjective evaluation. We agree. But the objective, unfortunately, in Ukraine is not, as official data on the number of transactions of the public are not available. Recently, a number of real estate professionals and journalists covering this topic, including this writer, have signed a collective appeal to the Ministry of Justice to publish the real data on the number of transactions. Fortunately, this information through the notary and the regional justice department in the Ministry should do. But the Justice Ministry escaped formal letters that collecting such data in his duties not included, and advised to collect information on BTI (which itself also did not want to give).

Remains the only statistics that are preparing some real estate agency. For example, according to EA SV Realty, for the period 1 January 2010 to January 1, 2011 in Kiev was committed 9,406 transactions of purchase and sale of apartments in the secondary market, and 2346 - sold in unfinished homes. And in 2009, on the secondary market of Kiev has sold 6,600 apartments in the primary market - 1425 apartments. That is, in 2010 there has been a significant increase in the number of transactions, which suggests a revival of the market.

TRANSACTIONS fewer. On the other hand, many experts are questioning details of this company, because there is complete clarity on how they could be obtained. A subjective feeling some specialists, market activity even decreased slightly. So the director of Realtor company Golden Gate Alex Holmetsky believes that the number of transactions was slightly less than in 2009

A slight decrease in the number of transactions was also on Summary results of the largest metropolitan network of real estate agencies "Blagovest and Park Lane, as well as a number of their partners, using a single consolidated database. Assessment Irina Lukhanin, the share of these companies account for about 50% of all transactions in the property market in Kiev, and their results are fairly reflect the trends of the capital market as a whole. However, the majority of experts surveyed said still a slight increase in the number of transactions.

Prices have fallen slightly. With regard to prices among the experts also agree not. According to analysts, professional real estate portal domik.net, for the year of Kiev residential real estate fell by about 8% (both in dollars and in local currency).

Taking into account the inflation, analysts say, the real depreciation of residential real estate will be about 17-20%. IN AN "Blagovest" also suggests that the average price of apartments sold from January to December 2010 decreased by approximately 6%. Alex Holmetsky believes that for the year prices fell by about 10%.

Vladimir Duhnenko, director of rating agency "Expert-rating, also alleges that throughout the year, prices went down. But according to the company SV Development, January 1, 2010 to January 1, 2011 the average real selling price of a 3-room apartments on the secondary market of Kiev has increased by 7.28%.

According to our observations is obtained as a result of monthly monitoring of the real estate market, prices also fell. Thus, one-room apartments of 30-35 square meters. m in sleeping areas, which in January 2010 could be bought for $ 50 thousand, is now offered at $ 46-48 thousand "kopeck piece with an area 42-45 square meters. m, which went for $ 68 thousand, is now exhibited for $ 65 thousand

Top 5 Questions about real estate-2011

1. What will happen to mortgage lending?

According to most experts, one of the achievements of the past year - the resumption, although on a modest scale, mortgage lending. If in 2009 we hardly have found 10 banks issuing mortgages at the end of 2010 there were about 30. Declined and interest rates. If this spring were in the area of 25-30% in the autumn - 19-22%.

Under which interest will be granted a mortgage in 2011? According to the Deputy Chairman of JSC Sberbank of Russia Alexander Vedyahina, within a year the average rate on mortgage loans will decrease from the current 19-22% to 16%. This means that in 2011 more people will be able to afford to take a mortgage loan. Judge for yourself. If you take $ 20 thousand (160 thousand USD.) For 15 years at 22% per annum, the monthly payment on an annuity amount to 3050 UAH. At the same rate at 16% it will be 2350 USD.

President of the Ukrainian think-tank, Alexander Okhrimenko some hopes on the fact that the statutory fund of the state mortgage agency has been increased from 200 million USD. up to 2,2 billion UAH. "It's hard to believe - the expert says - that the SMI will now present the refinancing of mortgages. If the SMI will continue to refinance at a rate of 11%, empty cans thrown all their few percent, many people will be able to take a mortgage of 14-15%.

CONTRIBUTIONS - less. And expected some easing of credit conditions. For example, says Alexander Vedyahin, this year may decrease the initial contribution of 40-50% of the total cost of housing up to 25-30%.

Increased length of the loan is unlikely because, according to Alexander Vedyahina, banks now have a problem to attract "long" resources. Therefore, as in 2010, the average loan term, is likely to be 15 years.

The conclusion from all of the above can be made as follows: for those who do not have enough to buy housing, say, $ 20-30 thousand, the barrier will open. They can take the credit, monthly payments on which will not exceed the monthly fee to rent. But those who do not have much more to mortgages will be harder. Indeed, the greater the amount of need, the greater will be the payment on the loan, and the greater the need will be an official "white" salary, which is likely the banks will demand in the current year.

2. What will happen to housing prices?

Specialists in different ways predict the behavior of house prices this year. "If there will be no disasters (eg, default), then in 2011 everything will be on the same level as in the previous year, - says Alexander Rubanov. - Prices will not fall, because people are buying apartments at prices that are established now. "

Yuri Bazelinsky also believes that prices will remain at about the same level. Like, there are no preconditions for the growth of purchasing power, and it is not enough projected revival of the mortgage. With this agreement, and an analyst of the International Centre for Policy Studies, Alexander Acorn. But there are experts who accept lower prices.

"What people do not earn as much money as before, it is a fact - says Alexei Holmetsky. - So many new buyers will not appear. And prices are likely to gradually fall. Maximum of 5% by summer. "

Forecast as "Today" is this: if the terms of mortgages eased as much as forecast, it might be slightly raise the price of the cheapest housing. Many can not afford to take the missing $ 20-30 thousand, because the monthly payment will not exceed the rent for an apartment. For example, even if a person has a of $ 5 th "nest egg", taking credit $ 30 thousand, he can buy a small "unity". At the apartment for more than $ 100 thousand dollars price to remain stable: they can buy, if the mortgage becomes more accessible.

As for prices of apartments in new buildings, there is no serious reason to wait for their apparent decline this year. "I do not think that prices will decline - says a leading specialist company SV Development Sergei Kostecki. - Developers interested reduce profitability, as it practically disappears ability to attract big investors.

After construction is now funded not only by buyers, as it was before, but also by attracting investors who want to earn good money on these projects. " Theoretically could stimulate price reductions recently enacted law on the regulation of urban development, which makes developers life on paper and reduces their costs.

But the law has not been signed by the president. In addition, run it in action, under the most favorable conditions, will take one month, and it just did not have time to exert its influence on the average prices in the market in 2011.

3. WILL BUILD NEW HOMES, AND DO NOT safe to invest in New projects?

New homes, of course, will be built, but they will be relatively small. "Given the fact that we have a lot of unfinished objects, mostly works will be conducted in facilities that are already in some stage of construction", - says Sergey Kostecki. At home from scratch have no more than 20% of the buildings.

With regard to risk, now buy apartments in unfinished buildings became less dangerous than in 2009, but the risks, according to Sergei Kostetskii there, and pretty serious. Indeed, many objects that are at the beginning of last year to "unfreeze" now again "frozen": the money ran out.

It should also be taken into account systemic risks that could lead to massive "freeze" of buildings. "The biggest problem that could arise if it is now more expensive metal in the domestic market due to the cost of gas and iron ore - warns Alexander Okhrimenko. - Price hike of gas should lead to a rise in price as cement and bricks. If it happens, will fall in the volume of construction by 10-20%. "

For people standing on the account in need of better housing conditions, there is an opportunity to buy an apartment with the help of the program "Affordable Housing", executed by the Fund for Youth Housing Assistance. Under this program, the state compensates the person 30% of the standard cost of purchased housing.

Projects to participate in this program are carefully selected and controlled, so buying an apartment in this unfinished home may be considered reasonably safe. However, according to chairman Leonid Risuhina Foundation, funding programs for this year have not yet been approved, while there is a discussion on the amount of 330 million USD.

4. WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THE PRICES AT THE RENT?

The rental market last year was more active than the year 2009. So, according to EA SV Realty, in 2010, was committed 9,490 lease deals apartments (2009 - 9116). The average rent for the year increased by 16.68%.

In the current year, a significant increase in rental rates is expected. "The prices for rent will be the same as last year - says Alexey Holmetsky. - In Kiev, new jobs are not there, so the influx of people from the suburbs will not. Many will continue to "thicken". Those who had previously rented 1-bedroom apartment will rent a room.

And those who rented an apartment for one - to rent an apartment for three persons. " If the average price of rent and will go up, then only slightly. "After the burst, which was in 2010 - said Sergey Kostecki - if the growth will be, it is small. Maximum of 5%. And then - at the very way / budget accommodation. Prices reached their ceiling. And since few people will pay raise in 2011, people just do not pull more expensive rent.

5. What will happen to land prices and a country house?

According to the President of the Land Union Andriy Koshil, the land market by individual building in the Kiev region in the past year, special activity did not differ. The reason - the lack of mortgage lending and low incomes.

Nevertheless, according to company SV Development, for the period from 1 January 2010 to January 1, 2011 value of land under the individual building in the Kiev region grew within 3.10%, while the average price of individual houses - at 2.05% . However, as in the case of the secondary real estate market, there is no official information on which to judge the real situation.

With regard to price prospects, Andrew Koshil not expect this year, some drastic changes. Crediting the purchase of land there, and it is unlikely it will be deployed shortly. Incomes of the population does not grow. Accordingly, much activity from customers is not expected. Hence, the market will stand still, either gradually reduce their price indices.

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